A Chinese report, shared by X user Tech_Reve, claims Apple will ship about 400,000 Vision Pro units in 2024, with a target of one million units throughout the year. Interestingly, the publication says that by the third year, Apple is expected to ramp up production to 10 million units, which is far above what its manufacturers can produce at this moment.
This year, we heard how difficult it was for manufacturers to produce Apple Vision Pro, with shipment forecasts lowering almost every quarter.
Although this Chinese report is partly in pair with what Ming-Chi Kuo wrote in September, the analyst believed Vision Pro shipments in 2024 would be “at most 400,00–600,00 units in total, which is less than the market expectation of more than 1 million units.”
In this report, Kuo even said Apple could have canceled the low-cost Vision Pro version plan, which could be launched by 2025. Currently, Kuo believes a second-generation Apple Vision Pro could enter mass production in the first half of 2027 at the latest, suggesting there may be no hardware updates for the Vision Pro in the coming years.
That said, ramping up production from 400,000 units to 10 million units in three years seems unlikely, mainly because manufacturing and assembling all parts of Apple Vision Pro isn’t easy. One of the roadblocks for increased production is the main panels that Sony produces. The Japanese company already said it doesn’t plan to increase production – and Apple still hasn’t found another supply chain.
As this product will be exclusive to the US market in 2024 – and shipment forecasts continue to be low – Apple will likely take a while to catch up with production and start selling this mixed reality headset overseas.
On the other hand, this Chinese report says Cupertino is already discussing the production of a second and third generation of Vision Pro, which the company will rely the most on China to manufacture, and not other countries. That said, the publication doesn’t say when Apple could start developing new generations of its mixed reality headset.
One thing is for sure: Apple Vision Pro is coming in early 2024, most likely around March, but we still don’t know a lot about this product.