There’s good in the slow Apple Vision Pro sales in the United States. At least, this is what analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes. In a Medium post, the reliable analyst says Vision Pro shipping time has improved to 3-5 days, which means Apple is not only able to catch up with demand, but interest for the spatial computer has slowed down. In our Apple Vision Pro review, we say this device is the future, although it makes sense why so many people aren’t joining this trend at this moment.
Kuo says that if Apple doesn’t cut the price of Apple Vision Pro or add more attractive applications, the shipment growth in the US market may be limited. Still, while Cupertino thought it would sell around 150,000-200,000 units in 2024, US shipments are expected to be around 200,000-250,000 units.
That said, the slow sales of Vision Pro might mean the company will expand this device to more countries soon. “Due to the limited demand growth in the U.S. market, advancing the global release schedule is favorable when the supply improves. The actual release time will depend on Apple’s software modification schedule to comply with other countries’ regulations,” he writes.
In addition, the analyst maintains its prediction that Apple may launch Vision Pro in more countries before WWDC this year. Among the regions, a leaked roadmap shows Cupertino is planning to launch this spatial computer in the UK, Canada, France, and Germany could also be in the first batch of an Apple Vision Pro international expansion, followed by Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, and Australia.
Kuo also says several small-capacity suppliers have expanded production from 500,000–600,000 units to 700,000–800,000 units this year. Still, he is cautious about the numbers. He says: “Production capacity usually differs from shipments. For example, the iPhone’s current assembly capacity is 250–300 million units per year, but the actual shipments are much lower.”
Also, returns of this spatial computer are lower than what’s rumored, with around 1% of people taking it back to the stores. The analyst writes that 20-30% of the returns are due to users not knowing how to set up the device.
When is Apple releasing a new Vision Pro?
Kuo also corroborates that Apple is expected to release a lower-end version of Vision Pro and a second generation. Still, Apple hasn’t officially started these projects, according to the analyst’s survey.
He expects Apple Vision Pro 2 project to go into mass production in 4Q25-1Q26. “The new project focuses on improving the efficiency of production and supply chain management rather than changing specs. The new project may reduce costs, and the latest plan shows limited changes to product specs, so it is estimated that the user experience will not differ from the current model,” he writes.
With that in mind, Apple Vision Pro 2 may not be in mass production until 2027.
