Earlier this week, Disney quietly released the first Captain Marvel trailer, a few days after the marketing campaign started. Captain Marvel hits theaters on March 8th, which is nearly two months before Avengers 4, which has a May 3rd release date set for the US. So now that the first Captain Marvel trailer is out, the first Avengers 4 trailer should follow soon, right?

Marvel Studios president Kevin Feige talked to io9 back in June about Marvel’s marketing problem for Avengers 4 — so many heroes have died in Infinity War that they can’t show up in upcoming trailers without spoiling things. At the time, Feige said that dead heroes wouldn’t be used in trailers and teasers, without going into much detail about it. He did say that the marketing campaign for Avengers 4 is likely to start in the fall or winter, though. He did not provide any specifics, admitting that plans could change by the time the campaign begins.

“We are working with the greatest marketing team in the world with Disney, so I’m anxious to see how they start to put [the marketing] together,” Feige said at the time.

The next event on Marvel’s calendar will be the DVD release of Ant-Man and the Wasp, which is set for October 16th or a couple weeks earlier on October 2nd for the digital version. It’s likely that Marvel won’t want to overlap the first Avengers 4 trailer release with the Ant-Man 2 event, so we’ll probably see the trailer premiere sometime after October 16th.

Also, given that the title of Avengers 4 is going to be a spoiler for the movie according to previous statements from Marvel execs, it would make sense to delay the release of the film’s title for as long as possible. With that in mind, a winter release for the first trailer would make the most sense.

Captain Marvel’s first trailer came out 171 days before the premiere, and I did the math looking for some patterns. I’m not the only one who has counted days, with a Redditor making the same point:

Marvel trailer was shown 171 days before release. The Super Bowl is 89 days before A4. 171 days before A4 release is November 13. Disney doesn’t have a Star Wars movie out this holiday season (but has Mulan). Do we get the name before the teaser?

First of all, Super Bowl might not have anything to do with the trailer. Also, there’s no Mulan this year. Finally, Avengers 4 launches on April 24th in France, and a day later in other European markets. If Marvel were to launch the trailer 171 days before the premiere, then November 4th is also a date that should be considered.

But Marvel’s previous hits, including Black Panther (123 days) and Infinity War (149 days), did not follow any pattern. And given that Avengers 4 will probably be one of the most anticipated movies in the history of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, it would not be surprising to see the first trailer drop in late November, just like it did ahead of Infinity War last year. And yes, when the first trailer arrives, we’ll finally learn that title the Russo brothers keep teasing.

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