UBS: 2011 iPad sales to total 28 million, iPhone 52 million

General

UBS analyst Maynard Um has raised his stock price target for Apple, Inc. to $350 from $340. The move comes as Um predicts upwards of 28 million iPads could be sold in 2011; a number the analyst described as “conservative.” Mr. Um is also predicting 52 million iPhones to be sold in the 2011 calendar year. Um continued: “We continue to favor product plays such as Apple as the company should have some of the most highly sough referred t after products in the holiday quarter. Despite tough economic conditions, consumers remain willing to pay for innovation. Despite increasing competition in smartphones and that which is soon to come in tablets, Apple’s ability to keep its products fresh and innovative gives us confidence in our estimates going forward.” Unlike 2010, the iPad will be competing with multiple Android tablet devices — such as Samsung’s Galaxy Tab — that offer similar functionality in 2011.

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89 Comments
  • Mr. Bill

    “We continue to favor product plays such as Apple”

    That made me laugh.

  • zapote21

    Awesome! That means combined, they should just about equal Android sales in 2011 in the US…

    • LeRoy Jenkins

      Yeah with only two different devices. It takes 5+ manufactures and 60+ variations of the same crap with Android to come close.

      • zapote21

        Old argument… And the only Apple has left…LOL

      • Mark

        @Zapote…..Yep, old argument, curious why your still dwelling and posting over it. Things kinda boring over there on the Android page ?

      • Doc Frank

        “It takes 5+ manufactures and 60+ variations…”

        Nice strawman argument. If that was a valid reason, they why wouldn’t Apple add manufacturers and variations if they want to increase sales? Plus Android is basically Android no matter what version.

        By the way, there are no 60 variations of Android, there are millions. Android, unlike Apple, Android allows you to customize your phone anyway you want. Now get back in line with the other sheep (aka soccer moms, and tech incompetent adults).

    • 3D Dot Hero

      Doubtful Apple will be anywhere near Google in sales.

      Android is already selling at a rate of 200,000 a day/73 million a year right now just for cellphones. And that rate has been growing at a tremendous rate.

      Has anyone actually ever SEEN and iPad in real life? Or even heard of anyone actually talking about it? Not some idiot at Starbucks but a real person with one or even mentioning having one or wanting one?

      Even the flaming Apple iFans can’t seem to explain what exactly anyone could possibly want an iPad for.

      • Ummm

        YOU can’t explain why you need an iPad, but I’m sure the many owners of the product can. I am very happy with my iPad. The apps that I have work great on it, browsing the web works just fine (yes, I can live without Flash) I even have many books that I’ve enjoyed reading on the device. Not to mention my music and movies which work just fine too.
        There a quite a few people at my company that bring them to work daily.
        This is why I wanted an iPad – because I wanted something light and portable and because netbooks are terrible. Netbooks are overpriced like Sony, underpowered like the Asus, and quite frankly Windows is too sluggish on them. I have never been more disappointed with the two netbooks I owned and then promptly returned. Most of all, the battery life on the iPad gets me through the entire day with no worries. The netbooks were easily dead before lunch without remaining constantly plugged in. Love Apple or hate them, the product works just fine for me and I haven’t been happier.

      • APPLE CHEERLEADER

        @Ummm,

        ipad is heavy and not portable you idiot !

      • JKR

        ‘not portable’ … please explain…

      • Babyfacemagee

        I see iPads all over New York City and Brooklyn. Every day. I also just spent a long day traveling from SF to NY and saw at least half a dozen in the airport being used by people in the waiting area as well as on the plane. In fact the guy directly across the aisle from me on the plane was playing some game and then watching a movie on his for half the flight. Several people stopped to talk to him about it during the 5 hour plane ride with him ‘demo-ing’ his ipad. I also saw several while I was in San Francisco last week for business. Mostly by young people in coffee shops but also by a guy at the ‘De Young’ museum and by an older woman sitting outside with her husband and the two of them reading something on it. this is just FIVE MONTHS after the iPad was launched. A year from now you’ll see them all over.

      • Elektra

        You said “Doubtful Apple will be anywhere near Google in sales”. What are you talking about? Android is given away for free by Google. Maybe you are referring to market share maybe.

      • Garett

        I see them on the train all the time. Maybe you’re not looking hard enough.

      • APPLE CHEERLEADER

        how can you miss them, they are so huge.

      • JKR

        i remember the day where bigger was better… LOL, once you go ipad you never go back, oh wait there’s a black kindle.. oh shi–…

    • http://twitter.com/mattstkc MattSTKC

      If you total up all iOs device sales it beats Android sales hands down.

      That’s like saying “Windows 7 Outsells Mac OSX”. Well no shit, Windows 7 is available on hundreds of computers, OSX is available on about 10 different devices.

      Android is an OS on hundreds of devices. iPad is a DEVICE. A Single Device. No shit hundreds of devices will out sell one.

      • zapote21

        And who’s fault is that? LOL isnt taht like Apple’s argument in the late 70′s and early 80′s regarding PC’s? “But Microsoft in on all the hardware manufacturers… blah blah blah…”

      • http://twitter.com/mattstkc MattSTKC

        not an argument it’s a fact. Apple counts on their own numbers system. They don’t give two shits about how many Android phones there are cause half of them are crap.

      • Mark

        Sorry MattSTKC, but I must correct your incompetent statement. All of them (Android) are shit. And before you Fandroids start flapping your gums, I have both in my house, Android on Verizon, iPhone on AT&T, and yes an iPad also. Android is a nice phone, but to claim it to be better just shows your ignorance. I will always take preference to the iPhone, mainly for speed (Accessing apps), ease of use and very little problems, including NO dropped calls to date.

      • JKR

        @Mark

        Sounds like a split household… LOL

      • APPLE CHEERLEADER

        and who’s fault is that ?

      • JKR

        The people with all the money thats who…

  • JAYZ

    So wait. This is just a prediction right? I mean, could it be possible that the Android, Windows and Blackberry tablets will just be fail? I’ve played with an iPad, and its crappy. Why bother buying one. And for the price!? I’ll stick to anything NOT Apple and starting with iPad.

    • Ummm

      If you don’t like it, great. All the power to you. To say that the device is crappy, is just far from the truth. There are plenty of crappy tablet devices out there, like the Archos 9 Windows tablet. I’ve used that and THAT was a terrible, underpowered, over hyped device that was horrible to use. I haven’t used the Android Archos tablets yet, but I’m sure they are much better than the Windows one.
      To say that you’ll stick to anything NOT Apple is being a little closed-minded. I’ll give any company a shot, and if I don’t like one device, that doesn’t mean I’ll write them off completely. I love Android and Apple jointly. Both have unique devices that work well and I hope they BOTH continue to challenge users and create innovative products.

    • Mark

      How about you do one better and start with this blog, its an Apple page, so turn your sorry ass about and hit the F-ing pike.
      No sense in limiting it to Apple software/hardware. Why you won’t, because you can’t, no matter how hard you try, you just have to be where all the Apple fans are.
      I bet maybe your an Apple closet dweller, you know, someone who has to fit into the lame ass crowd of people you hang with because no one really wants you around. You were probably dropped on your head at an early age, fed with a sling shot from across the room because your parents didn’t want to get near you. Its all clear to me now.
      And if you post here again……….. it will just show the validity of my statement.

  • Ion

    What, no mention of the cmda iphone rumor in the article link? Oh I see, you only want to mention rumors that are based on factual proof…

    Amazing that what this person does actually qualifies as work. UBS could save some money by hitting up a fortune teller now and then – same results:)

  • bnicka

    underperform… Those estimates really are too high. No offense, but 2011 could be a bad year for apple.

    • Marvin

      2011 will be a great year for Apple – They are a solid, cash rich company with good products and great marketing…and lets face it, if you can’t market a product, people won’t buy it. Apple does a great job at creating buzz, getting tons of publicity (sometimes bad ie. antennagate).

      There may be better products in the marketplace but no one markets better than Apple.

      • http://twitter.com/mattstkc MattSTKC

        Why Apple wins in this battle (and will continue to win) is that Apple maintains full quality control. Every iDevice running iOS is up to their absurdly high standard. Android is open sourced, so there are hundreds of devices, dozens of skins, and hundreds of shitty Android phones. The Quality Control exercised by Apple, however zealously, maintains their products image exactly as they want it, so the consumer has a clear picture of what they’re getting when they buy an iDevice. with an Android device, you have no idea.

      • 3D Dot Hero

        Apple win?

        Apple is in third place in cellphone sales. Apple is nothing more than Google/Android roadkill in the cellphone market.

        “Every iDevice running iOS is up to their absurdly high standard.”

        Yeah, that defective iPhone antenna design, flaky proximity sensor, half-assed multi-tasking, etc. are standards other companies can only dream of reaching…

        LOL!

      • Mike Tyson

        your a douche. How much money are you getting from all of the android phones being sold? $0. Same as what google is getting. Get a life loser!

      • YouForgotAds

        Google makes money off of serving ads, not from the sale of it’s Android operating system licensing! The more Android phones sold and the more they browse = lots of $$ for Google…

      • JKR

        @YouForgotAds

        Google really doesn’t make that much money off of ads on their devices, actually iAds has already surpassed them this year, but thats not a negative for Google, things are just cheaper…

      • Ummm

        Well said Matt. Android would do even better in the marketplace if they were too unify a bit more and have standards for each device. Apple could be in serious trouble should Android-powered devices have a bit more unification and if they did a little better marketing and learned how to create more buzz and hype. Apple has a great marketing team, and they create hype better than most companies.

      • Marvin

        That’s the achiles heel of Android – great because it’s “open” – lousy because it’s open. You are correct that for Android to trump iOS is to get some tighter specs and licensing regulations to the handset makers and the wireless companies.

        Apple has been masterful with iAds and revenue sharing with developers. I’m not a developer but what are the hurdles with developing Android apps considering there are so many different handsets – OS systems running. If I develop for 2.2 and 85% of current Android hansets are not running 2.2 – how does that help me?
        Seems like a big risk in the Android marketplace for developers.

  • Math Wiz

    raised his stock price target for Apple, Inc. to $350 from $340

    Isnt that going down by 10 dollars…. Editor, where you at?

    • DInc

      uhm… when you raise your stock price target from $340 to $350 you actually go up in monetary value by $10.

    • doug

      I feel for you math wiz…i boned a simple one a couple weeks ago. have another cup of coffee, it will help.

      • Math Wiz

        It did help I read it backwards!!! oh no!

      • DInc

        haha

  • Joe B.

    “Apple’s ability to keep its products fresh and innovative”

    What the hell is the slightest bit innovative about the Ipad or the Iphone for that matter. They add nothing but features already present in the competition for years, but they still get to be classified as innovative. The only thing Apple Innovated recently was their innovative new antennae design and we all saw how that played out.

    • LeRoy Jenkins

      Your FanDROIDism blinds you.

      • JKR

        actually that was the reflection from the shiny apple logo that blinded him

    • Peter

      Spoken like someone who has no idea what ‘innovation’ means.

      “Innovation is a change in the thought process for doing something, or the useful application of new inventions or discoveries.”

      You might as well write “iPhone” against the word in your dictionary. Innovation is not about cramming the latest tech specs into the smallest space, it’s about new ways of thinking. I didn’t jump on-board the iPhone express train until the 3GS, but I understood from the day the damn thing was launched that it represented a fundamental change in the relationship between people and technology.

      It’s not perfect, but I think it’s the most influential piece of consumer technology since the Sony Walkman.

      • Yo momma

        That’s the problem Peter, the iPhone was the latest innovative thing Apple has done. They’ve been riding the platform for 4 years with only incremental upgrades that have existed in other phones for years.

        I’m a day 1 adopter of the iPhone and have an iPhone 4. It’s a great phone and only the highest end Androids even give it a run for its money. But don’t act like Apple has done anything innovative since 2006 when they were developing this thing.

      • Mike Tyson

        IPad was innovative. If not check with Samsung and every other manufacturer as to why they are all suddenly in the tablet market. People can hate apple as much as they want, but at least give them credit where its due. Is the Ipad a bigger ipod sure it is. But what company thought a tablet would be a hot consumer item. None! Now every company wants to sell one. I call that innovative in the way it has driven the tech and consumer market towards a new device.

      • Yo momma

        Microsoft has been pushing tablets for a decade…

        And I’m in the market for an iPad. Not sure if my wife and I will get one, but we’re looking.

      • doug

        MS has been selling a stylus based tablet for years, yes. Waiting for the technology to catch up to the design and intended use-case was key.

        The stylus was a problem: lose it and the device falls apart. Having a battery life that won’t get you through a day of use, not having a near instant on left you wondering where and how to use it.

        Apple both waited for the technology to mature and developed (or bought) the technology to make it work seamlessly.

        It goes pretty unnoticed, but that “digital photo frame” button on the lock screen was, I think, the “just in case” –to give the iPad something to do in the living room to not look like clutter. They really thought the thing through.

      • http://twitter.com/mattstkc MattSTKC

        *cough* iPad…

      • Yo momma

        What about “They’ve been riding the platform for 4 years” doesn’t relate to the iPad? It’s a giant iPod Touch. Yes, it’s making waves in the CE world, but it doesn’t mean it was innovative. The iOS platform is what makes the iPad so successful. The iOS platform was first developed in 2006.

        Stick OSX on the iPad and it’s a dud.

      • Yo momma

        And I’ll add to my previous comment. This is exactly how Microsoft fell from the top of the pile.

        Windows 95 may have had it’s fair share of problems, but it was a hot mess. The marketing around 95 and 98 was superb, a Windows 95/98 machine was the hip thing to buy. But marketing can only take you so far… Then Microsoft got lazy, came out with ME and consumer confidence began to drop dramatically.

        It’s evident with the latest product unveiling that Apple doesn’t know what they’re doing. The new iPods show how Apple doesn’t have a clue what’s next to innovate. The Touch, while a great iPod, is more of the same and is a freebie to Apple each refresh (just copy the iPhone sans the phone/GPS.) The Nano is absurd with it’s wannabe iOS on it and the Shuffle is still an overpriced USB stick with a media player in it.

        The AppleTV is a half baked product and has NO innovation behind it. They copied a Roku box, negotiated 99 cent TV show rentals and dropped the price to Roku territory. The TV show rental thing would be nice if it weren’t for the fact that Amazon has the same deal.

        Face it, Apple has done two innovative things in the past 25 years: the iPod and the iPhone. Anything else was either bought e.g. OSX or just wasn’t innovative (their entire Mac lineup.)

      • Yo momma

        And I’m not saying that the Apple products won’t sell. I know they will. All I’m saying is Apple needs to get off their laurels and begin the innovation process again instead of rehashing a dying product (MP3 players) or taking an existing platform and creating variations of it (iPad.)

      • http://twitter.com/mattstkc MattSTKC

        Facetime is Apples next thing. Think about it. New iPod Touches have Facetime capability, new iPad’s announced in January will too. Soon there will be an OSX/iOS hybrid touch screen desktop that turns into an iPad by removing the screen. The Patents show they’re working on something big for next year.

      • http://twitter.com/mattstkc MattSTKC

        Plus the majority of consumers aren’t questioning whether or not the device is the next Technological Jesus device but whether or not it will change or improve the way they consume content and add new ways for them to do so. In that way, Apple innovates with every new device – iBooks, Facetime, Netflix, their version of multitasking, etc.

      • Peter

        I take your point, largely, but I do think the iPad innovates in the tablet market. Yes, MS have been building them for years, but there’s no doubt that the iPad is a quite different experience. Ultimately, I think it’s more successful.

        I agree with you that little else Apple has done recently smacks of bleeding-edge innovation, but I’m OK with that; my formative years (in the UK) were spent buying the latest and greatest gizmos that Clive Sinclair dreamt up. The ZX81, the Sinclair Spectrum, his revolutionary portable TV, the QL… although even I, zealot that I was, blanched at the Sinclair C5 electric car.

        The point is that constant innovation, while very interesting and fun, isn’t always the pathway to commercial success. Sinclair was a great inventor but a terrible businessman – if only they’s built on some of the foundations of their successful innovations instead of constantly reinventing themselves, maybe they’d still be around.

        A modern example of innovation done well is Dyson – a disruptive reinvention of the vacuum cleaner that took years of garden-shed prototyping to get made. Look at today’s Dysons, and there is a clear, incremental progression from the original models.

        It’s a balance.

        That said, I’d love it if Apple diversified their phone range a little come iPhone 5. Do a keyboard, please!

      • Joe B.

        The Original Iphone was innovative. The models released since only offer incremental upgrades and features present in literally all of its competition. How long does the Iphone get to keep the innovative title from 2006 before it is forced to I don’t know actually be innovative again. The Iphone 4 had the opportunity to be innovative but Apple once again settled with just catching up to the comeptition. The fact of the matter is Android has outsold Apple for the apst 6 months and it’s latest handsets have consistently gotten better critic reviews than the Iphone 4. Apple has been cruising by on reputation for years at this point.

  • http://www.giochidicucina.eu alex

    i don’t think that ipad will sell so much in 2011.
    we will start to see strong competitors

    • Marvin

      SImilar to how the Zune sold against the iPod……

      • MicroNix

        No similar to how Microsoft flooded the market with cheaper devices capable of similar tasks and sold them in every dept and electronics store. IF the new Android tablets get it all right and are selling for $200 – $400 with all the bells and whistles? Yeah, there might be some competition for the iPad. Right now the iPad is riding high with ZERO competition (IMHO) just like the iPhone was for the first couple years. Look at how the landscape for the iPhone is now….still enjoying great sales, but now being outsold by the competition.

  • none

    Um… really?

  • Mr. Bill

    Pictured above in the story, is what happened when a very large woman sat on her iphone.

    Was pretty damn creative an innovative indeed.

    Talk about, A hot mess.

  • Norman

    Well-to-do consumers often are willing to pay an extra price premium for functional innovation and convenience.

    But the consumer markets history have shown that such consumers and their less affluent savvy early adopter counterparts, also tend to become more brand-fickle when competing products of comparable quality and functionality to prestige brands are readily available at lower price points.

    For example, think of Lexus versus Mercedes-Benz or BMW autos. perhaps Mr. Um should pay greater attention to the steadily growing popularity of similar devices on the Android OS platform.

    And here’s a really tough question, Are Google’s Android engineers less innovative or receptive to constructive feedback from their customers, than those resident at Apple Inc?

  • MacMan

    I love my iPad. I really don’t have any use for my MacBook anymore. This thing does everything I need and more.

  • Norman

    Starting this coming year-end holiday season, Apple’s iPad and iPhone devices will face a competitive onslaught from leading top-tier multinationals such as Samsung, LG, Asus, Toshiba, Those conglomerates are familiar, trusted household names to many tens of millions of consumers around the world.

    So far, such multinationals have earned their massive success and longevity due to factors that include great price performance, competitive affordability, high product quality and reliability.

    Their use of the open-source Android OS for their devices, is not based on Apple-like hype or the heady, fanatic hysteria of consumers whose self-esteem is deeply invested in high-profile name brands.

    • doug

      android tablets will do at least ok, but they’ll need more than just a browser that can play flash, and until Android bakes in a more complete MS Exchange capability or someone builds a good one, it will be more übertech than business professional buying them.

      Android’s developing fast fast fast but once its on feature parity will it pass iPad/iPhone on fit and polish?

  • http://garyfales.com california asset protection

    what DOESN’T apple own?

    • Joe B.

      An Original thought.

      • http://twitter.com/mattstkc MattSTKC

        Maybe or not but they’ll always win the “Anything you can do I can do better” award.

      • Joe B.

        Except for the multitudes of things their competition can do that they can’t do at all. Iphone and Ipad still lack several notable features found in its competition. Your logic is flawed.

  • patrick

    Yeah. I wonder if this guy is lumping ipod sales in with ipad? I would think by now, anyone that wanted an ipad would have bought one. Hasn’t it been like six months? The ipod touch on the other hand will sell like hotcakes. It is an absolute update from the current touch. I for one will be getting one of the windows or android tablets. This guy needs to clarify his statement because right now it seems like he is just taking a shot in the dark.

  • patrick

    @ummmmm
    yeah. It would be great if Google had some sort of yearly conference with Android phone manufacturing companies and set up some mandates for timeframes for updates. That would help greatly. Think about it, if your device is capable that it would be updated within the same month as everyone else. Very attractive.
    That is the only benefit apple brings to the table. That being said, i can’t imagine that once a windows tablet comes out that it would not be the top selling tablet.

  • http://twitter.com/mattstkc MattSTKC

    As long as Android continues to allow Manufacturer Skins and Custom Carrier Apps, Apple will always win.

    • Jarrett

      Exactly, Google needs to clamp down. Microsoft would have never gained such dominance by allowing manufacturers to determine which version of Windows to sell. They would have been foolish to allow any sort of skin (theme) to overlay their baby.

      Google, get control.

      • dario

        Now that is an argument I completely agree with. After owning a Captivate for two weeks I can feel the fragmentation issues. The only thing making me want to jump over the iPhone is the app support. Not their so called ‘innovation’ which makes me gag every time I hear this from fan boys, nor their slick marketing that tells me an iPhone will cure my self esteem issues. It won’t.

        But I would like stability and consistency with my software. Coming from WinMo I think folks can appreciate that. Apple provides that. And in my opinion the only real argument to go with the fruit monster.

      • MicroNix

        Please explain how you “feel” the fragmentation issues with your Captivate. Be specific. I would like to hear what apps led you to believe they were absolutely not made for your device.

  • bob

    Spin spin spin. Anything to make a buck.. Nothing more than an un educated guess.

  • Jarrett

    The numbers could be high and they could be low, who knows. What really isn’t debatable right now is that for the iPad and iPhone 4 both Apple can not seem to make enough. In other countries the wait currently is up to four weeks for delivery for either.
    I could be wrong but their isn’t that sort of demand for any other tech product on the planet anywhere.

    • dario

      Again with the ‘selling like hot cakes, can’t make enough of them’ argument. You can say the same thing for Android and the EVO and Incredible. So there are two examples of great demand so unfortunately you are wrong in this example.

      It is called supply issues. And in the case if the iPhone4 it is also probably tied to the antenna problem that will magically correct itself come October when the supply issues are resolved. Like magic.

      • Jarrett

        The difference is that none of the Android manufacturers are producing one device on a run rate anywhere near the iPhones. Besides, if you produce 100,000 units a month and 100,001 are ordered I suppose that is a case of not meeting demand but you have to admit that mlillions upon millions every month and as a company you can’t meet demand it is a little different.

      • MicroNix

        How about when they sell out the week they are launched? Give it up fanboy.

    • MicroNix

      Droid X, Incredible, EVO…all of them can’t stay in stock. I guess you *were* wrong.

  • Bryan

    You know, as I frequent this site I realize there are about 3 different type of people who post comments. the iSheep, who blindly deny that android (or any other type of OS or device) is even CLOSE to competing, which face facts, sales don’t lie, you can say you’re in the lead but don’t act like its not a close race and other are catching up. Then there is the super die hard apple hating Fandroids, who like to poke sticks at the apple fans every chance they get (ok, even tho I don’t join in on this, the iSheep deserve it). And then there are people who, like myself usually choose not to post cause we don’t wanna be labeled an iSheep or a Fandroid, cause on the internet, everyones a fanboy.

    Oh and just to stay on topic of the article, I do think there is a lot of “we think” in this, which i understand its there job to do, but most people who I’ve talked to said, they’d like an ipad cause it can be handy, they don’t really see it being worth it. idk, I think they’ll see some good holiday numbers but I don’t see an iPad invasion in 2011. And for myself, hell give me a 4.3″ screen and a good resolution and I can read txt just fine and I don’t feel like I have to hold it like a putz with two hands (this is my feeling on all tablets not just the ipad)

  • Daniel

    Of course Apple is going to sell millions of Pads if companies like Toshiba are going to continue to build buzz about tablets and only release them in Europe and Asia. Also, if those are direct quotes, Mr. Um needs someone to proof read his work.

  • Smoking Gun

    Whats the real point of this story?….That it’s a good idea to buy Apple Stock?

    I hope BGR continues its outstanding effort to feature stories about things most of us probably already knew.

  • Smoking Gun

    Whats the real point of this story anyway?….That it’s a good idea to buy Apple Stock?

    I hope BGR continues its outstanding effort to feature stories about things most of us probably already knew.

  • Steves Liver

    Wow, 52 millions phones with the inability to receive a voice/data connection. That’s a lot of “huh, you there? hello? anyone? yo!?”

  • JKR

    Can I please coin the term ‘BGR whores?’

  • Elektra

    Your momma :-)

  • Smoking Gun

    Just a shot in the dark….Maybe because they want you to invest in Apple with perhaps them as your broker.

    LOL

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