The Vision Pro will go on preorder in a week from now, two weeks ahead of the official February 2nd release date. If you’re considering getting Apple’s spatial computer, you might want to make preorder arrangements as fast as possible come January 19th.
Ming-Chi Kuo said earlier this week that the Vision Pro will sell out quickly despite its $3,499 price tag. I said at the time that I wasn’t surprised to hear the Apple insider’s prediction. Apple might only launch the Vision Pro in the US, but it can’t manufacture the Vision Pro at the same rate as other devices.
Kuo is now back with actual figures to back up his expectations. Apple will have between 60,000 and 80,000 Vision Pro units at launch. If these production estimates are accurate, it’s very likely the Vision Pro will be sold out for some time to come.
“Apple will produce 60,000 to 80,000 units of Vision Pro for the February 2nd release,” Kuo said on Twitter/X. “Since the shipment is not large, I believe that Vision Pro will sell out soon after the release.”
The well-known Apple insider posted the figures in response to his earlier take on the Vision Pro launch reception, where he predicted the spatial computer would sell out quickly.
“Although Apple has not clearly defined the product positioning and key applications of Vision Pro, and there are doubts that the price is not cheap, the user experience (e.g., giving users the illusion that they can control the user interface with their minds) created by the groundbreaking technology innovations, along with the base of core fans and heavy users, should make it easy to sell out after the release,” Kuo added.
Apple never discloses stock figures for any device that reaches the launch phase. But we often see the newest iPhone series sell out during the first hour of preorders. And Apple manufactures a lot more iPhone units for launch than anything else.
The sky-high Vision Pro price is something that would impact production. Apple wouldn’t want to increase inventory before it knows it can sell the device. But that’s not the only reason that will impact manufacturing.
The Vision Pro’s hardware is more complex than an iPhone or Mac. The spatial computer features plenty of sophisticated components. We’re looking at high-end displays, several flagship chips, and lots of sensors to track the eyes and hands. Manufacturing the first-gen device isn’t easy.
Estimates that predate the Vision Pro announcement said that Apple would sell up to 1 million units in the first year in a best-case scenario. That figure then dropped to fewer than 500,000 units.
A report last summer presented the production challenges Apple was dealing with, saying they forced Apple to further cut production figures. Apple would be manufacturing fewer than 400,000 Vision Pro units in the first year.
Vision Pro manufacturing started several weeks ago, according to other reports. But we never got any figures or details about issues that might prevent Apple from scaling up production. Then again, Apple did unveil the Vision Pro release date much earlier than expected. That suggests production must have hit some targets for an early February launch to be possible.
We’ll soon see how fast the Vision Pro is sold out. And how much you’ll have to wait for a Vision Pro shipment after that. Again, preorders start next Friday, with in-store sales set for February 2nd. I wouldn’t expect stores to have that much stock to go around.
I made no secret that I’ll buy the Vision Pro once availability extends to Europe. However, I’d preorder it next week if I could, even if I weren’t completely sold on it. As with any other product, you’ll have 14 days to return the device if you’re not happy with it.