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Deadpool 3 trailer smashes records, but can the movie top $2 billion at the box office?

Published Feb 14th, 2024 4:12PM EST
Deadpool (Ryan Reynolds) in Deadpool & Wolverine trailer 1.

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Marvel released the Deadpool & Wolverine trailer during the Super Bowl, and the video hit 365 million views online in the first 24 hours. That’s enough to make the Deadpool 3 the most-viewed trailer of all time. The previous record holder was one some of you might be familiar with — another small comic book project called Spider-Man: No Way Home.

The trailer for Marvel’s newest massive multiverse movie outperformed the other Sony-Marvel massive multiverse movie trailer. This makes me wonder whether Deadpool 3 has a chance of topping $2 billion at the box office. Marvel certainly needs a win after its recent output, and it’s not just about money. Minor spoilers might follow below.

I assumed Deadpool & Wolverine would make at least $1 billion well before the trailer was released. Deadpool fans have been waiting for this movie to come out for years, and they’re going to see it even without a trailer, and even if the reviews say it’s bad. 

But the first Deadpool & Wolverine trailer got an amazing response already. It got 10 million more views than No Way Home, the previous most-viewed trailer.

The Spider-Man movie then went on to make nearly $2 billion at the box office — $1.91 billion during its original run and an additional $9.3 million for the re-release a few months later. Sony wanted to hit that $2 billion mark, a figure previously reserved for Avatar movies and the Avengers. But the re-release was not quite enough to put it over the top. 

I will point out that No Way Home was released at a time when some moviegoers weren’t at ease with returning to cinemas. It still made nearly $2 billion. 

But in July 2024, when Deadpool 3 will be released, that won’t be a concern. People will likely flock to see Deadpool & Wolverine when it hits theaters.

Furthermore, the rumored Deadpool 3 cameos alone should be enough to convince even casual Marvel fans to head to the movie theater. That’s really what made No Way Home a must-see movie. The first trailer only scratched the surface of what’s coming in Deadpool & Wolverine in terms of cameos from the Fox universe Marvel movies.

The original Deadpool made $782 million at the box office in 2016, which was a massive performance for an R-rated non-MCU Marvel movie. At the time, Marvel’s MCU was already massive. Deadpool 2 nearly matched that in 2018, bringing in $734 million. A rerelease a few months later as Once Upon a Deadpool brought in an additional $51 million.

I’ll also add that none of Marvel’s Phase 5 and 6 movies have hit the $1 billion mark so far. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness was the closest with a $955 million take.

Finally, I’ll say that Deadpool & Wolverine is Marvel’s only theatrical release of the year. Another reason for Marvel fans to hurry to theaters once the movie is out.

With all that in mind, that $2 billion mark certainly looks like something achievable. It wouldn’t even be just about the money for Marvel. They need this win for the MCU after the lackluster years that we’ve witnessed after Endgame.

With Deadpool 3, Marvel can prove it can tell great superhero stories, stories that people want to watch in theaters. Deadpool (Ryan Reynolds) might be right. He might become the Marvel Jesus the MCU needs. 

Chris Smith Senior Writer

Chris Smith has been covering consumer electronics ever since the iPhone revolutionized the industry in 2008. When he’s not writing about the most recent tech news for BGR, he brings his entertainment expertise to Marvel’s Cinematic Universe and other blockbuster franchises.

Outside of work, you’ll catch him streaming almost every new movie and TV show release as soon as it's available.