We know most every detail about the iPhone X at this point, thanks to a giant bombshell leak that came from Apple itself. Now that we know about the phone, there’s only a couple questions left: What’s the release date, how much will it cost, and where can you get one?

Ming-Chi Kuo, a respected analyst with good supply-chain sources, has bad news for anyone hankering to get an early iPhone X. According to a new note sent to investors early Monday, the iPhone X “will remain in severe short supply for awhile” after launch, with production limited to 10,000 units per day initially.

Kuo cites “general production issues” as well as a specific problem with a new blush gold shade that Apple is expected to introduce. Just as the Jet Black iPhone 7 took months to actually get in stock, don’t expect to see the Blush Gold iPhone X in stores near you. Kuo suggests that delays could lead to the blush gold version going on sale at a later date altogether.

What do those numbers mean for your chances of getting an iPhone X at launch? Well, opening weekend sales of a new iPhone have topped 10 million for the last three generations. Let’s say that the number is about the same for the iPhone X — demand will be high, but so will the price. Even pre-orders topped 5 million for the iPhone 7 in the first 24 hours.

If the iPhone X has an initial production capacity of 10,000 units per day, and Apple has been producing for 120 days (a generous estimate), that only puts the initial stock of iPhone X units at a little over a million. I’d guess that you’ll have to pre-order within an hour of pre-orders going live to have any chance of receiving a phone on launch day.

Luckily for Apple, Kuo doesn’t reckon the slow start to sales will have any impact on the stock price, or the eventual number of iPhone X units sold. Production will ramp up exponentially after initial difficulties, and the iPhone X should generally available by the all-important holiday season.

Chris Mills has loved tinkering with technology ever since he worked out how to defeat the parental controls on his parents' internet. He's blogged his way through Apple events and SpaceX launches ever since, and still keeps a bizarre fondness for the Palm Pre.