The Apple Watch definitely sold well eight out of the gate but does it really have much of a shelf life once the initial hype dies down? A new research note flagged by 9to5Mac suggests that it may not. KGI Securities this week made a massive cut to its Apple Watch sales projections by between 20% to 30% in Q3 2015. What’s more, KGI says that it’s cut its estimate of total Apple Watch sales for the year from the consensus range of 20 million to 30 million units down to 15 million units.

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Why does KGI believe Apple Watch sales aren’t going to live up to earlier projections? Essentially, it notes that suppliers of the watch’s Taptic Engine have not increased their output in recent weeks, which leads KGI to believe that demand has leveled off after and early surge.

That said, it seems that KGI remains upbeat about the prospects of the Apple Watch in general. It says Apple needs to make key improvements to the device’s battery life and its app ecosystem, but overall it thinks future generations of the device have terrific potential.

KGI analyst Ming Chi Kuo has proven to be the most accurate Apple analyst on the planet and has nailed details about recent iPhone launches, among other things.

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