Rumors surrounding the imminent launch of an Apple-branded HDTV have been swirling for the better part of a year, and while some industry watchers expect the “iTV” to launch as early as this summer, one analyst suggests that we’re still more than a year away from seeing Apple launch an iOS-powered television. JP Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz said on Thursday that his firm does not believe Apple will release an HDTV in the near future. More →
JP Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz wrote in a research note Thursday morning that he is adjusting his quarterly sales estimates for both the iPhone and the iPad. Moskowitz expects Apple to sell 28 million iPhones during the fourth quarter, up from his original 25.3 million estimate. He cut his estimate for iPad sales, however, and now expects Apple to sell 13 million iPad units rather than his original 13.3 million-unit projection. Moskowitz also said he expects Apple to ship 5.4 million Mac computers during the quarter. “Our research inputs indicate that iPhone sales remain robust, and Mac sales holding up,” Moskowitz wrote. “The thrust of our call is that we are increasing iPhone estimates but slightly trimming our iPad estimates. Despite the uncertain macro environment, we expect Apple to sustain above-peer revenue growth, upward-trending margins, and incremental market penetration opportunities to fend off competitive and economic challenges.” Moskowitz increased his revenue forecast for the quarter from $37.36 billion to $38.69 billion with earnings of $9.87 per share, above the average Street estimate of $38.02 billion in revenue and $9.78 per share.
Consumers are clamoring for an affordable tablet with deep Amazon service integration according to one analyst, and the Kindle Fire could see huge numbers this quarter as a result. J.P. Morgan analyst Douglas Anmuth estimates Amazon will sell between 4.5 million and 5 million tablets in the fourth quarter, which will consist of just over six weeks for the Kindle Fire as it goes on sale November 15th. Other analysts aren’t quite as bullish on Amazon’s tablet — Morgan Stanley’s Scott DeVitt wrote in a note to investors earlier this month that Amazon would sell 2.8 million Kindle Fire tablets this quarter. Anmuth’s checks suggest continued strong pre-order demand for Amazon’s first tablet, which sold 95,000 units on the first day of pre-sales. A purported leak later suggested that Amazon was taking an average of 50,000 pre-orders each day following its Kindle Fire unveiling. Anmuth also noted that he expects to see Amazon launch new tablet models in 2012, including the 10-inch “Hollywood” tablet BGR exclusively revealed earlier this year.
JP Morgan executive director Mark Moskowitz is not impressed with Amazon’s first attempt in the tablet market. In a recent note to investors, Moskowitz said the tablet is just “noise,” and that it lacks too many features to be a valid competitor. “We are not impressed with Kindle Fire,” Moskowitz wrote. “In our view, [the Kindle Fire] is a stepping stone, at best, into the tablet market. We think that for any vendor to wrestle momentum from Apple, a fully-loaded offering is a must, and here, Kindle Fire falls short for now.” Read on for more. More →
Apple will release two new iPhone models this fall, the “iPhone 4 Plus” and the iPhone 5, according to a note to investors issued by JP Morgan on Monday. JP Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz reiterated reports that the iPhone 5 will feature global roaming with support for both CDMA and GSM networks. As various other rumors have also suggested, Moskowitz believes the iPhone 4 successor will be thinner and lighter than the current model. In addition, Moskowitz said Apple will release another model with “some improvements” over the current iPhone 4. He has dubbed that model the “iPhone 4 Plus” instead of the “iPhone 4S,” a commonly used moniker for the potential entry-level device. “We believe that investors should start to prepare for more positive surprises related to the quarterly run rate of the iPhones in the near- to mid-term,” Moskowitz said, noting the addition of the iPhone 5 to Sprint’s portfolio and the introduction of the iPhone 4 Plus on China Mobile and China Telecom could create a large boost in iPhone sales. More →
Companies that have introduced consumer tablets to compete with the iPad are dialing back production as demand for their tablets is failing to meet expectations. A new report issued Wednesday by J.P. Morgan Chase paints a sad picture for companies like Samsung, Motorola, RIM and ASUS as they look to make headway in the emerging consumer tablet market. These manufacturers have slowed production of their respective tablet offerings by as much as 10%, J.P. Morgan claims, due to limited consumer demand. Among those tablets that have failed to gain traction, the report lists the Motorola XOOM, which we know to have shipped at least 250,000 units in the first quarter alone; the BlackBerry PlayBook, which indeed isn’t selling well for some retailers but is thought to have sold 250,000 units in its first two months of availability; the ASUS Eee Pad Transformer, which the report says was initially selling well but is now overstocked in some cases; and the Samsung Galaxy Tab, which is far and away the second-best selling consumer tablet in the world. “Non-Apple tablet hopefuls have adjusted to the weak showing so far,” the report said. “We still think a tablet bubble burst could occur later this year.” More →
Following RBC Capital Markets General Manager Mike Abramsky’s lead, JP Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz on Friday raised his revenue and EPS estimates for Apple’s 2011 fiscal second quarter. RBC upped its second-quarter revenue estimate from $23 billion to $24 billion on Tuesday, citing pent up iPad demand and strong sales of the Verizon iPhone 4 and newer laptop lines. On Friday, JP Morgan’s Moskowitz wrote in a note to investors that iPhone shipments in the quarter were likely stronger than expected thanks to the launch of the Verizon model and the addition of new sales channels for the GSM version of the popular smartphone. As such, he upped second-quarter estimate from 16.6 million units shipped to 18.4 million. Moskowitz raised his revenue estimate for the quarter to $24.42 billion from his earlier estimate of $23.83 billion, and adjusted his EPS estimate to $5.39 from $5.21. Apple will report its earnings for the March quarter on April 20th.
If you’re tired of hearing about tablets, we have some bad news for you… they’re not going away any time soon. While repeated failed attempts will undoubtedly trim the number of entrants in the tablet market over the coming months and years, the market itself is poised to explode. JP Morgan said in a note on Monday that it estimates the global tablet market to reach $35 billion next year. More specifically, the firm revised its 2011 tablet revenue forecast from $24.9 billion up to $26.1 billion on sales of 47.9 million units, and its 2012 estimate has been raised to $35.2 billion on sales of 79.6 million units from $34.1 billion. JP Morgan also noted that the tablet market will likely have a negative impact on sales of laptop computers. “We expect tablets to have an increasingly negative impact on PC shipments,” JP Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz wrote. “More than 35 percent of tablets sold in 2012 will be cannibalistic, particularly as relates to netbooks and notebooks.” More →
Using a bit of guesswork, J.P. Morgan analyst Phil Cusick calculates that Verizon Wireless’ pre-sales of the iPhone 4 may have topped 500,000 units. In a note to investors on Monday, Cusick cited information contained within an earlier press release from Verizon Wireless to take a somewhat educated stab at pre-order totals. According to Verizon, pre-sales of the iPhone 4 broke the carrier’s previous first-day sales record in just the first two hours of availability. Cusick states that the prior record for single-day handset sales was 100,000 units, set by the Motorola DROID last November. Using that information along with the knowledge that Verizon Wireless and Apple continued to take pre-orders for another 15 hours before pulling the pre-order pages from their respective websites, Cusick estimates that over a half-million orders were placed. Cusick believes that Verizon’s iPhone 4 will go on to beat the DROID’s opening day, opening weekend and opening week sales totals, and he estimates that first-quarter iPhone sales will easily top the DROID’s fourth-quarter performance of 1.6 million units, as well. More →
In a note to investors Monday, JP Morgan analyst Imran Khan wrote that online shopping during the holiday season is up 22% so far this year compared to the same period in 2009. Khan cites a Chase Paymentech survey of 50 online retailers as his source. Online shopping during the same period in 2009 was up 15% compared to 2008, so this year’s positive trend is good news for Amazon.com and other popular online retailers. Khan also noted that the heaviest days for online holiday shopping have historically been December 15th through the 21st. More →