The smartwatch market is dominated by Samsung, followed by Sony and Pebble, according to a mid-May Strategy Analytics report, but that may change as soon as Apple’s rumored iWatch launches. Obtained by Forbes, a new research note from Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty reveals that Apple’s ecosystem strength and consumer loyalty are going to drive an incredible amount of sales in the first year alone.
Citing data from AlphaWise, Huberty says that Apple’s brand loyalty continues to grow and that, thanks to its integrated ecosystem of devices and the “halo effect,” Apple may be able to sell more than 30 million iWatch units in the first 12 months, for $300 a pop. iWatch sales would bring in an extra $9 billion in revenue, and $0.49 EPS – that’s the “worst case” scenario, with the stock seen driving up to $110 as a result.
In the “bull case,” Huberty sees Apple selling 60 million smartwatches in the first year, with stock hitting $132 by the same time next year.
The analyst also provided a “bear case,” which sees Apple shares falling to $74, in case iPhone sales would go flat and mainstream consumers lose interest in wearable devices.
Apple is expected to launch an iWatch smartwatch this fall, laden with health and fitness sensors, as well as other smart features.
Graphs from Huberty’s report, showing penetration rates for Apple devices, and smartphone brand loyalty according to AlphaWise, follow below.