- Coronavirus deaths are going to see a big upward spike over the next couple of weeks, according to a new forecast from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
- The CDC is predicting as many as 160,000 total dead in the US by August. It’s because of coronavirus surges the CDC says are coming from 12 states including hotspots like Florida.
- To date, there have been more than 3.3 million confirmed coronavirus infections in the US.
Between now and the end of the month, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is estimating that more than eight times as many Americans could die from the coronavirus than died in the Sept. 11 terror attacks in New York City.
That’s according to a new forecast from the CDC which shows that an expected surge in deaths will push the overall number of people in the US who’ve succumbed to the virus from more than 135,000 today (according to the latest numbers from Johns Hopkins University) to as many as 160,000 total dead by August.
Moreover, this estimate from the CDC is being driven by 12 states, including those that everyone knows by now are particularly worrisome coronavirus hotspots. Like Florida, which on Sunday reported a record 15,300 new coronavirus cases — the most reported in a single day by one state since the pandemic began.
“This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that there will likely be between 140,000 and 160,000 total reported COVID-19 deaths by August 1st,” the CDC’s estimate notes. “The state-level ensemble forecasts suggest that the number of new deaths over the next four weeks in Arizona, Alabama, Florida, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Nevada, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and West Virginia, will likely exceed the number reported over the last four weeks.”
For other states, the CDC predicts that the number of new deaths will be “similar” to the number seen in the previous four weeks and might even decrease slightly.
This news is in line with a warning in recent days from White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci who in a live stream interview attempted to shoot down the increasingly popular talking point that the coronavirus pandemic isn’t as bad as some people are making it out to be since the US death rate is still rather low. Indeed, as of the time of this writing the US has seen more than 3.3 million confirmed coronavirus cases, according to Johns Hopkins, and more than 135,000 deaths (for a death rate of a little more than 4%).
However, New York Magazine on Monday noted that for the first time since April, “the seven-day average of daily COVID-19 deaths (has begun) a sustained upward surge. The seven-day stretch from Sunday, July 5, to Sunday, July 12, saw an average of 704 daily deaths, according to the COVID Tracking Project. For the seven days prior, the number was 497. Four days last week saw death totals above 800, which hasn’t happened since the start of June.”
There's no need any longer to try and explain divergence of the case and fatality curves.
There is a need for explaining why there's no adequate response, unacceptable testing capacity and turnaround times, lack of PPE, #stayhome in key states, and a surrender #SARSCoV2 strategy pic.twitter.com/sUlRFiIb4A
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) July 13, 2020
Accordingly, Dr. Fauci addressed this issue thus: “It’s a false narrative to take comfort in a lower rate of death,” said Fauci, who also serves as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, during a live stream press conference with US Sen. Doug Jones of Alabama. “There’s so many other things that are very dangerous and bad about this virus … By allowing yourself to get infected because of risky behavior, you are part of the propagation of the outbreak. Don’t get yourself into false complacency.”