‘Ominous signs for Android vendors’ after Q3 smartphone sales decline, analyst says

Business

In a recent research note, Morgan Keegan analyst Tavis McCourt said his firm believes smartphone sales may have dipped sequentially during the third quarter of this year, and year-over-year, for the first time ever. McCourt says the change is likely due to consumer anticipation for the iPhone 4S, which made its debut during the fourth quarter. In addition, McCourt argued that a likely decline in Android sales quarter-over-quarter and “only modest growth” year-over-year despite the introduction of a number of new Android handsets, was an “ominous sign for Android vendors.” Read on for more.

“We believe slowdown in Android, Blackberry, [and Windows Phone] sales at AT&T/Verizon likely indicates a reasonable number of customers choosing not to upgrade in Q3, but rather waiting to switch to the iPhone in Q4,” McCourt explained in his note. “The strong initial sales figures for iPhone 4S would seem to back up this assumption.”

McCourt also believes carriers will continue to experiment with lower-priced data plans to increase the adoption of smartphones. According to the most recent data from NPD group, Android accounted for 52% of all smartphones sold in the U.S. during the second quarter. Additionally, Gartner said in August that Android’s global market share was 43.4%, up 25.2 percentage points from the same period last year.

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113 Comments
  • Anonymous

    While the headline is one possibility, it certainly isn’t a foregone conclusion and I could see how more obvious conclusions could be drawn.

    It really makes me wonder if you just have an axe to grind with Android since the facts don’t necessarily support this and it is more based on speculation than anything else.

    Did anyone else notice that iPhone sales went down further.  I wonder what the headline might be if BGR wasn’t trolling for iPhonies…  

    • Anonymous

      Actually they’re successfully trolling the Goofans (aka Apple Haters) like you and me.

  • Justthefacts

    Here is what I have seen in the last two weeks from work, family, friends:
    Old Phone – New Phone
    Blackberry (AT&T) iPhone 4S(VZ) 16GB
    Blackberry (AT&T) iPhone 4S(VZ) 16GB
    Blackberry (AT&T) iPhone 4S(VZ) 32GB
    Flip phone (Sprint). iPhone 4S(Sprint) 16GB
    Android (VZ). iPhone 4S (VZ)
    iPhone 4(AT&T) 16GB. iPhone 4S (AT&T) 64GB
    iPhone 3GS (AT&T). iPhone 4 (AT&T) 16GB
    Flip phone (AT&T). iPhone 4S(VZ) 16 GB

    Notice any trends?

    • Anonymous

      Dats a lot of iPhones. I wish I had an iPhone. I would go down on my grandmother for an iPhone.

  • Madeinmanhattan

    This analyst doesn’t know how to analyze.

    Q3 2011 shows similar sales of “non-iphone” handsets in comparison with Q3 2010.

    Q3 2011 shows a decrease in sales of iphone handsets in comparison with Q3 2010.

    In fact, in comparison with iphone handsets, non-iphone handsets show a much smoother and predictable trend.  In fact, this same data could be used to assure non-iphone retailers that non-iphone handsets are a more stable market to sell to.

    There is even more data in that graph that could be discussed in terms of market analysis that is much more relevant and useful than what this “analyst” has present in this BGR posting.

  • foreWard

    so if iphone sales slow, its because people were waiting for the 4s/5….but if android sales slow, it is “ominous” come on BGR….why don’t you just become boy apple report.  I mean, there is no way people were waiting on new androids (bionic, razr, sgs2, nexus) instead of buying stale androids…. 

  • Anonymous

    BGR is unfracking believable!
    How many tiny internet trolls do they employ that go looking for bullshizzle like this?

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_VNMZ67HA6QFEXTW5OXVSB4KDRM BillyBoy

    I’m not that convinced.  I buy a new phone every 4 to 8 months (yeah I’m sick) but since I bought my Thunderbolt there just hasn’t been anything that exciting in Q3 on Verizon.  I’ve looked at the Sensation on Tmobile, the Galaxy SII on carriers except Verizon but I just can’t give up my 4G LTE.  And I hate Motorola so I’m not going there…  

    I say wait till November/December when all the new cool phones come out for the holiday shopping season.  I know I’m already looking forward to replacing my battery sucking TBolt.

    • Anonymous

      No man, you are not sick.  We have statistics that the typical Goofan (aka Apple Hater) buys a new phone every 1-2 weeks.  As new phones come with more specs trying to topple the last phone, we need to buy it.  So you are ok. 

  • Anonymous

    Honestly no one gives a dam about a iphone that still runs on 3G compared to a 4G android this chart doesn’t make sense at all.

  • Anonymous

    Droid Bionic, Galaxy S2 series, Nexus Prime and Iphone 4. A lot of people were waiting for phones coming out in Q4 Not Surprising 

    Does no one see that apple sales went down further. Such a trollish aricle ceebs with bgr anymore.

  • Anonymous

    based on the graph, it seems like the article is really reaching for its’ point. “Non iPhone sales” dropped less than iPhone sales in Q3, as seen on the graph, but it spells doom for Android? Wouldn’t non iPhone sales include WP7 and RIM devices on top of Android? Faulty logic is faulty.

  • Anonymous

    Shocking that BGR reports negatively on Android.  I tell I am so shocked !   Please, it’s time to get out of bed with Apple BGR, please.  You expect to maintain credibility with reporting like this.  Looking at the graph vs the article text is hilarious :-)

    Is there any site that isn’t just about page hits nowadays?

  • Vim

    This is complete BS.  AT&T stated in its 3Q report that it sold 2 times as many android smartphones as it did a year ago. HTC had a record sales quarter. All evidence points towards Samsung having extremely high android growth.  They really need to subtract out the Blackberry, Windows Mobile and Symbian phones (all of which are dropping like lead anchors) before they proclaim doom and gloom for Android.  Just because non iPhone smartphones are down doesn’t mean Android smartphones are down. 

  • http://claimid.com/155/ 155

    I think this guy doesn’t know much about android.

    Why couldn’t Android users be delaying their purchases waiting for Ice Cream Sandwich and the promised Nexus Prime.  I know at least one person doing that.  It was obvious that a new awesome phone will be coming out for months.  Why couldn’t android users be waiting for that?

  • http://profiles.google.com/froggmann Ken Pauley

    I think it’s a little early to call this a trend. They are missing a lot of data here.

    Q3 saw a lot of people holding out for their next smartphone. With rumors of the iPhone 5, Nexus Prime just over the horizon people including me stayed in a holding pattern waiting for that next milestone device despite having eligibility for a newer device. 

    As for Q4:

    On the android side I predict there will be a sizable jump in android sales once the Galaxy nexus is released. Not only will the “geeks” be picking up the newest, shiniest uberphone but lots of people will be grabbing all the other newly discounted just as good phones that are and will be on the market in the coming weeks. 

    On the iOS side they are currently experiencing a jump due to the newly released iPhone 4S the newly discounted iPhone 4 and the free or practically free iPhone 3GS. Even though the 4S wasn’t what everyone was expecting it’s still a respectable step in the iOS world. Plus it’s fun to mess with Siri. 

    In the overall Q4 numbers I do see iOS gaining a fair lead on Android but with a new version of the OS being released Android will still hold it’s own and possibly surpass iOS in Q1 of 2012.

  • Anonymous Coward

    You could use the exact same ‘logic’ on the dip in iPhone figures to assume iPhone users are choosing not to upgrade in Q3 because the Nexus will be out in Q4…

  • Anonymous

    Correction: “McCourt says the change is likely due to consumer anticipation for the iPhone 5″ which never came, leaving millions of anticipated buyers unsatisfied.

  • Jhtechservices

    Hey look!  BGR posted an article about how apple is better than android!  WHAT A SURPRISE.  This is why I barely pay attention to BGR anymore….

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_MRXKXFO5F7NVWFJHNZFO7NEHVY Big R

    Did anyone take into account the number of quality phones available in 3Q11?  The answer is simple.  People are waiting for the next “best” phone.  It has not come out yet and it does not look like it will soon.  People, like me, will settle for the Galaxy Nexus, Razr, or Rezound simply because waiting 3-6 months for the next phone is not worth it.  

  • Anonymous

    Because the Android smartphones in Q3 were sh*t and people were waiting for the iPhone 5 (which never came). Why would I get a Droid Charge when I knew the Holiday season will have the latest and greatest smartphones including the Nexus and the HTC Vigor (Rezound) and what was thought to be the release of the iPhone 5?

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Michael-Perez/100001642094127 Michael Perez

    Things will rise again for android with the Galaxy Nexus and new Motorola super smartphones coming out. Only good devices that came out in the Q3 was the Droid Bionic and the Galaxy SII.

  • Stevevagina

    seriously BGR, can your articles get any more stupid

  • Robin Ashe

    What’s with inserting Windows Phone in there? Did the article originally state Windows Mobile? Would have been better to throw in [sic] than to edit or insert information that wasn’t in the quote previously.

  • Anonymous

    single data point a trend does not make.

  • Anonymous

    Analysts are f*cktards. You should the kind of “research” they do. They’re a joke.

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