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Tesla’s Cybertruck will start shipping before the end of the year, but probably not yours

Published Oct 9th, 2023 2:20PM EDT
Tesla Cybertruck
Image: Tesla

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Tesla might actually get the Cybertruck into the hands of its first — and first is the key word — customers by the end of the year.

Rumors about the release of the Cybertruck have been growing over the last year or so. People aren’t even on the edge of their seats waiting for Elon Musk to announce the delivery event anymore — they’re falling off of them at this point. The wait has been a long one for anyone who preordered the futuristic truck, and according to supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, it may finally be over for a select few by the end of this year.

Kuo took to a post on Medium to report that the Cybertruck is expected to ship its first 100-200 units this year, meaning that we should expect a delivery event with the first round of customers receiving their trucks sometime this fall or winter. While that number is obviously low, Kuo estimates that shipments are going to ramp fast. The analyst believes that, by 2025, the company will pass a quarter of a million trucks produced.

Interior of the Tesla CybertruckImage source: Tesla

In addition to estimating shipments for the Cybertruck, Kuo also made some predictions about the Cybertuck 2 (good lord, we’re already talking Cybertruck 2). The analyst believes that the next major update to the truck won’t come until around 2030. While the truck is expected to receive some updates over the years, as the company does with its other vehicles, the overall form factor is not expected to change.

Kuo’s full predictions are below:

  • The current shipment estimates for the Cybertruck in 2023, 2024, and 2025 are 100–200, 100,000–120,000, and 240,000–260,000 units, respectively.
  • The innovative designs of Cybertruck (such as aerodynamic efficiency) are expected to maintain its competitive advantage until 2030, meaning the all-new designed Cybertruck 2 will likely not start shipping until 2030.
  • Before the launch of Cybertruck 2, there will be versions of the Cybertruck with upgraded or modified specifications but with an essentially unchanged form factor design.
  • It’s clear that the Cybertruck will be a significant contributor to Tesla’s revenue and profit growth for years to come, and this contribution is expected to remain unaffected by seasonality or economic downturns for the foreseeable future.

Kuo’s latest predictions line up with an earlier report from Tesla CEO Elon Musk himself, who said on an earnings call that mass production of the truck wouldn’t kick in until 2024. We’re still waiting for Tesla and Musk to officially announce the Cybertruck delivery event, so if Kuo is right, that invite should be coming soon. The event is likely to be held at Giga Texas, the company’s plant in Austin, Texas, where the Cybertruck is being manufactured.

Once the wait is over, the Cybertruck is certainly going to be one of the most unique vehicles on the road. The truck features such as a range of up to 500 miles per charge, a towing capacity of 14,000 pounds, and the ability to go from 0-60 in 2.9 seconds. It also features one of the most futuristic designs of any vehicle and is expected to take at least some market share away from other EV trucks like the Rivian R1T and the Ford F150 Lightning.

Today’s prediction comes a few days after the company dropped the price of the Model 3 and Model Y again, marking the lowest price that the Model 3 has ever been sold at. With the upcoming changes to the EV tax credit that allows shoppers to get their $7,500 rebate instantly, Tesla’s cheapest car is primed for a sales boost as well next year as the Cybertruck comes online.

Joe Wituschek Tech News Contributor

Joe Wituschek is a Tech News Contributor for BGR.

With expertise in tech that spans over 10 years, Joe covers the technology industry's breaking news, opinion pieces and reviews.