Over the past few years, PC sales have been on a steady decline. Considering the universal popularity of the smartphone, this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, but over at Asymco, Horace Dediu has put together some fascinating projections that you might not have expected to see in 2015.

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According to Dediu’s forecast, Apple will ship more iOS and OS X devices in 2015 than all Windows computers combined. In fact, the iPhone alone could overtake PC sales by the end of the year.

“Data from Gartner shows Windows PCs declining at a 6% rate in Q1 with a full-year forecast of -2.4% (including OS X),” writes Dediu. “Assuming 20.7 million Macs, the Windows PC market will decline to 285.6 million units (from 295 million in 2014). My estimate is that iOS and OS X combined shipments will total about 302 million.”

Again, this isn’t exactly a shocking development, but it’s one that many casual observers probably didn’t expect to see so soon. Then again, if the launch of Windows 10 later this year can surpass all expectations, Microsoft may be able to stem the tide temporarily.

Here’s Dediu’s graph charting the history of the personal computer market from 1981 through to this year:

Computer Shipments 2015Image Source: Asymco

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