Although iPhone sales are still trending upwards with every new release, market saturation may begin to have negative effects on Apple in the coming years. Fortune shared a report on Wednesday from Sanford Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi that predicts Apple will lose 26% of first-time iPhone buyers by 2015 after a notable 8% drop this fiscal year. By next year, a majority of iPhone purchases will be upgrades for buyers that have purchased an iPhone before. According to Sacconaghi, unless Apple inks a deal with China Mobile or releases a legitimate budget iPhone, his forecast only leaves “a slim margin of error that Apple will attract sufficient first-time iPhone buyers going forward to meet consensus forecasts for FY14 and FY15.” The chart can be found below.

Jacob started covering video games and technology in college as a hobby, but it quickly became clear to him that this was what he wanted to do for a living. He currently resides in New York writing for BGR. His previously published work can be found on TechHive, VentureBeat and Game Rant.