Although iPhone sales are still trending upwards with every new release, market saturation may begin to have negative effects on Apple in the coming years. Fortune shared a report on Wednesday from Sanford Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi that predicts Apple will lose 26% of first-time iPhone buyers by 2015 after a notable 8% drop this fiscal year. By next year, a majority of iPhone purchases will be upgrades for buyers that have purchased an iPhone before. According to Sacconaghi, unless Apple inks a deal with China Mobile or releases a legitimate budget iPhone, his forecast only leaves “a slim margin of error that Apple will attract sufficient first-time iPhone buyers going forward to meet consensus forecasts for FY14 and FY15.” The chart can be found below.