In just a few days, HBO will air the first episode of Game of Thrones season 6, which will likely pick up the action from the last thing we saw happen in season 5’s epic finale. Jon Snow’s fate is settled if you believe what HBO told us, but plenty of evidence suggests that he’s not as dead as you might think. But moving beyond Snow, a new study uses machine learning to determine who’s going to die next in Game of Thrones.

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The team behind GoT.show used machine learning to predict who will die next in the show out of all the main characters. The team extracted data from the wiki of Ice and Fire including whether the character is dead or not, of course. The data was fed into a computer, which then came up with a “percentage likelihood of death” (PLOD) for the characters who are still alive.

“The Song of Ice and Fire series is known for killing many characters, including prominent ones,” the team explains. “While only fewest characters die of an old age, the majority meets a violent end. Does the death come at random or does it come to only those selected ones who exhibit similar features? The features can be certain age, heritage and gender. It can also be the fascinating ability of likely-to-die characters to make similar, mostly wrong, fateful decisions in their lives.”

That said, these are the five main characters who are the most likely to die next:

  • Tommen Baratheon – 97%
  • Stanis Baratheon – 96%
  • Daenerys Targaryen – 95%
  • Davos Seaworth – 91%
  • Petyr Baelish – 91%

That doesn’t look very reassuring, does it? Jon Snow, meanwhile, has an 11% PLOD which suggests either the computer is way off or HBO is lying to us. Arya Stark scored 68% while her sister Sansa is most likely to live, with a 3% PLOD. Looking at the Lannisters, we’ve got Tyrion at 70%, Jamie at 64% and Cersei at 16%.

In addition to providing PLOD data for these characters, GoT.show also features interactive Twitter reaction timelines as well as interactive Westeros maps showing you personalized travel patterns for your favorite Game of Thrones heroes.

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