One would think that analysts and pundits, after so many years of predicting a decline in iPhone sales, might someday come to their senses and stop betting against Apple. Every year, we’re bombarded with predictions and dire warnings that iPhone sales have topped out, that Apple’s spigot of innovation has becoming increasingly less potent and interesting. And yet, every year, without fail, Apple manages to shatter every existing iPhone sales record.
With the iPhone 6s set to hit stores this Friday, all indications point to Apple proving the pundits wrong and having another monster hit on its hands.
Late on Tuesday, John Legere, T-Mobile’s colorful CEO, fired off a tweet stating that iPhone pre-orders on T-Mobile are up an impressive 30% compared to iPhone 6 pre-orders last year.
— John Legere (@JohnLegere) September 22, 2015
If the iPhone 6s manages to average a 30+% sales increase across all worldwide carriers during the upcoming holiday quarter, that’ll result in Apple selling a whopping 96.8 million iPhones from October through December.
Also telling is that Apple, not a company prone to making sales projections, told John Paczkowski of Buzzfeed last Monday that it anticipates first weekend sales of the iPhone 6s to break all previous records.
“We are on pace to beat last year’s 10 million unit first-weekend record,” Apple spokeswoman Trudy Muller told Paczkowski.
Taking a quick step back, there are likely two factors at play which explain why we’ll likely see record-breaking demand for the upcoming iPhone. First, the iPhone 6s upgrade is arguably the most compelling iPhone refresh we’ve seen in years. Don’t let the ‘S’ release cycle fool you, the 6s is packed to the brim with awesome new hardware and software features. 3D Touch in particular is looking like a game-changer. Second, the pool of existing iPhone users ready and looking to upgrade is bigger today than it’s ever been before.
Speaking to this point, Neil Cybart of Above Avalon recently approximated that there are currently 355 million iPhone users on devices that pre-date the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus. Which is to say, Apple is on track to enjoy what will likely be the company’s biggest upgrade cycle to date.
Thankfully, we won’t have to wait long to see how high iPhone 6s sales can go. If history is any indication, we’ll be seeing a press release from Apple highlighting specific sales figures come this Monday.