Smartphone shipments to top 1 billion in 2013

As consumer electronics giants Apple (AAPL) and Samsung (005930) continue to dominate the smartphone industry, two new milestones are expected to be reached this year. According to well-known accounting and consulting firm Deloitte, global smartphone shipments will exceed 1 billion units in 2013 as the total smartphone installed base tops 2 billion.

The firm defines a smartphone as “any device perceived by consumers as being a smartphone,” so the figure likely includes Nokia’s (NOK) Asha line and similar devices.

Other predictions from Deloitte for the coming year include increased popularity of authentication methods beyond passwords, big 4G LTE adoption with a subscription base that tops 200 million, and the continued dominance of PCs, which will account for more than 80% of Internet traffic this year despite momentum in the tablet market.

Deloitte’s full press release follows below.

NEW YORK, Jan. 15, 2013 /PRNewswire/ — Deloitte predicts more than 90 percent of user-generated passwords will be vulnerable to hacking in a matter of seconds, according to the Technology, Media and Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions 2013 report released today. The Deloitte report also counters current thinking, predicting that existing broadcasters will continue to deliver the majority of over-the-top services and 4K televisions won’t disrupt the marketplace just yet.

Deloitte also predicts that global shipments of smartphones will likely exceed one billion units for the first time in 2013 and the install base of smartphones will be close to two billion devices by the end of the year. At the same time, Long Term Evolution (LTE) adoption will continue to increase with more than 200 operators in 75 countries launching LTE networks by the end of 2013 and LTE subscriptions should exceed 200 million, a 17-fold increase in just two years.

“This year’s predictions cover a range of topics, highlighting the continued dominance of the personal computer (PC), developments around crowdfunding portals, access to data, and smartphones,” said Eric Openshaw, vice chairman and U.S. technology, media and telecommunications leader, Deloitte LLP. “Organizations have to carefully consider new ways that consumers receive information and entertainment both at home and on-the-go, and employ strategies that create an incredible customer experience and innovative products amid persistent economic uncertainty.”

For more than a decade, Deloitte’s TMT Predictions have forecasted many of the most influential trends in technology, media and telecommunications — making them a key source of market intelligence for businesses in all sectors.

The most significant TMT predictions to impact the marketplace in 2013:

1. Smartphones ship a billion, but usage becomes simpler — Global shipments of smartphones, defined as any device perceived by consumers as being a smartphone, will likely exceed one billion units for the first time. The installed base of all smartphones, per this definition, is likely to be close to two billion devices by year-end.
2. P@$$1234 : The end of strong password-only security — More than 90 percent of user-generated passwords — even those considered strong — will be vulnerable to hacking in seconds. Additional forms of authentication including token devices, additional passwords sent through SMS to your phone, fingerprints and other biometrics, or even ‘tap and go’ credit cards may be required.
3. The reality of TV “cord cutting” in North America — More than 99 percent of North Americans will continue their Pay TV subscriptions. A growing number of young people, however, will likely not subscribe when they move out on their own, becoming the first generation of “cord nevers.”
4. Over-the-top may lift legacy broadcasters more than pure plays — Two of the top three over-the-top (OTT) TV and movie services are likely to be provided by existing broadcasters or distributors.
5. The PC is not dead: It’s about usage not units — More than 80 percent of Internet traffic measured in bits will continue to be generated on traditional personal computers (desktops and laptops). Of the total time spent on PCs, tablets and smartphones combined, more than 70 percent will be using PCs. This includes both work and home usage.
6. “Mobile advertising” thrives, led by tablets, but smartphone display lags — “Mobile” advertising — a category including tablets, smartphones and feature phones — should grow by 50 percent to reach $9 billion globally.
7. Let’s get together: Crowdfunding portals bring in the bucks — Crowdfunding portals will raise$3 billion globally, a 100 percent increase over 2011.
8. Enterprise Social Networks (ESN): Another tool, but not yet a panacea — More than 90 percent of Fortune 500 companies will have selectively or fully implemented an ESN by the end of 2013, a 70 percent increase over 2011. Of those who register, only a third will read content once a week or more and just 40 percent will make an ESN post in the average month.
9. 4K kicks off — The next generation of high definition (HD) TV sets, 4K, offering four times higher resolution than the current highest standard HD TV. But there will be no 4K broadcasts in 2013, so consumers will not have much to watch on their expensive ($15,000 – $25,000) sets.
10. Connected TV: hits and misses – In 2013, tens of millions of connected TV sets will sell globally, and the installed base of TV sets with integrated connectivity should exceed 100 million.
11. A strong year for Long Term Evolution (LTE) adoption – More than 200 operators in 75 countries will have launched a LTE network by the end of 2013. By year-end LTE subscriptions should exceed 200 million, a 17-fold increase in just two years.
12. The looming spectrum shortage: Worse before it gets better — The demand for wireless bandwidth continues to grow causing increased spectrum exhaustion — leading mainly to slower speeds, but sometimes an inability to access networks or dropped calls or data sessions.

Full details about the global TMT Predictions are available here: http://www.deloitte.com/Predictions2013.