I don’t usually upgrade my iPhone every year, but I’m already contemplating doing exactly that with the iPhone 16 and iPhone 17 models.
More specifically, I’m certain I’ll want the rumored ultra-slim iPhone 17 Air next year. But I also want Apple Intelligence and the Capture button, so I’ll have to get an iPhone 16 phone.
Therefore, for the first time in forever, I’m thinking two steps ahead. I still haven’t decided what iPhone 16 to get, but I know I won’t keep it for over a year. Once the iPhone 17 Air drops, I’ll trade in the iPhone 16 or pass it to a family member.
If you’re having similar thoughts, you might wonder which iPhone variant in Apple’s lineup will hold its value the best for a 2025 trade-in. Thankfully, we have some surveys that can help us predict which iPhone 16 versions will depreciate the least.
How fast does the iPhone depreciate?
Compare and Recycle, a phone recycling comparison site in the UK, has new data about the iPhone’s ability to retain its value after launch. The company says that iPhones will lose over 25% of their retail value the second you unbox them and up to 62% in the first year.
That’s what we’re looking for here. We want to keep an iPhone 16 for a year, then trade it in for the iPhone 17 Air.
Back to Compare and Recycle, they say that the iPhone depreciation rate in the first year is increasing. The iPhone 13 lost 40.09% of its value, the iPhone 14 lost 47.80%, and the iPhone 15 lost 55.57% on average in the first year.
The iPhone 15 is particularly surprising, as it’s the first iPhone in history to lose more than half its value. The inability of certain iPhone 15 models to run Apple Intelligence might have something to do with that, but I’m only speculating.
With that in mind, Compare and Recycle believes that the iPhone 16 models will depreciate by at least 60% in the first year. That’s somewhat worrying for our scenario.
Compare and Recycle also found that the iPhone Pro models depreciate the slowest. Therefore, that might be the way to go when considering an iPhone 16 purchase this year.
As you can see in the graph above, the 128GB iPhone 15 Pro and the 256GB iPhone 15 Pro lost 50% of value after one year. The 256GB iPhone 15 Pro Max, 256GB iPhone 15, and 128GB iPhone 15 followed, losing between just over 50% and about 53% of value.
The iPhone 15 Pro models with 1TB of storage lost about 60% of value in the first year.
What iPhone 16 model should I buy?
We’re going to assume the iPhone 16 will follow the same depreciation pattern ahead of the iPhone 17 Air launch and that all iPhone 16 prices will match the iPhone 15 prices. There’s no indication that Apple will increase prices this year, but there’s speculation that the 256GB iPhone 16 Pro will be the cheapest iPhone 16 Pro variant. In this case, the price will start at $1,099.
Finally, we will assume a direct purchase from Apple that includes no carrier deals aside from Apple’s usual $30 discount on the non-Pro models.
Of the iPhone 15 variants that depreciated the least, we’ll only keep the 256GB variants. That’s the storage I’m eying, considering my 256GB iPhone 14 Pro has some 50% of storage filled.
Here’s what might happen in a year:
- The 256GB iPhone 16 Pro ($1,099) will drop in value to around $550.
- The 256GB iPhone 16 Pro Max ($1,199) will drop in value to around $600.
- The 256GB iPhone 16 ($899) will drop in value to around $423.
To further simplify things, you’ll spend about $476 for using the 256GB iPhone 16 for a year or $550 for the 256GB iPhone 16 Pro. After a trade-in next year, you’ll recoup about 50% of your initial spend.
The 256GB iPhone 16 Pro seems like the best deal if you want the best possible iPhone 16 experience and a great trade-in price for the iPhone 17 Air next year. But that 256GB iPhone 16 might just hit the sweet spot.
I’ll also point out that the 256GB iPhone 16 Pro should be a great phone for several years, especially if I were to pass it on to a family member rather than resell it.
One more thing
This isn’t an exact science, of course. It’s an exercise based on Compare and Recycle data compiled for the UK market. Also, I’ve used depreciation figures for the iPhone 15 series, which might not hold for the iPhone 16 models. But assuming its conclusions can be applied worldwide, it can inform you on what iPhone 16 model to get in case the iPhone you really want is next year’s iPhone 17 Air.
Like a previous study that looked at the best time to trade in the iPhone 15 ahead of the iPhone 16 launch, Compare and Recycle also found that trade-in prices are traditionally at the highest in August and early September before the next-gen iPhone arrives. You’ll want to keep that in mind next year when the time comes to trade in an iPhone 16 for the iPhone 17 Air.
I’ll also note that carriers will be thrilled to throw “free” iPhones your way with trade-ins as long as you get new contracts. The same will apply next year when you might be shopping for the iPhone 17 Air. But like I said above, I’m not counting on any of that here. I’ll buy the iPhone 16 I choose for the regular price, without carrier deals. The same goes for the iPhone 17 Air.
Finally, this exercise hinges on Apple actually launching an ultra-slim iPhone next year. If the iPhone Air doesn’t come next year I’ll certainly stick with the iPhone 16 variant I’ll buy this year until 2026.
