We’ve been waiting for a big ChatGPT upgrade for months now, but OpenAI has yet to announce one. Sure, the company had a monster month of announcements in December. OpenAI took the o1 reasoning model out of beta, making it available to more ChatGPT users. The text-to-video Sora tool is now available to users in certain markets. The o3 reasoning model has also been announced and is currently undergoing testing.
These are just a few of the AI announcements OpenAI made in December, but there’s no word on when the GPT-4o upgrade will drop. Unofficially, reports say that ChatGPT GPT-5, or whatever it ends up being called, is running behind schedule, as OpenAI has had issues training the next-gen AI model. OpenAI isn’t the only AI company experiencing such problems.
Sam Altman has been hyping OpenAI’s accomplishments recently, teasing potential ChatGPT features to come in 2025 while also talking about the larger goals. AGI (artificial general intelligence) is the next big thing, an AI that can tackle any task just like a human would. After AGI, we get to artificial superintelligence (ASI), which is AI that exceeds the capabilities of the human mind.
“We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it,” Altman said in a blog post recently, adding that OpenAI is already starting to look at superintelligence development.
How close are we to that big AI breakthrough? Some people think the recent excitement that some OpenAI engineers are displaying online suggests that the company is indeed close to some sort of big advancement in AI.
Some AI fans noticed the recent teasers from OpenAI employees, as well as an essay from an AI researcher who goes by the name of “Gwern” online.
Gwern theorized that OpenAI may hold the key to developing AGI and superintelligence. A powerful reasoning model like the o1 or o1 pro can produce the data needed to train more advanced reasoning models.
The essay author in the tweet above also said they’re surprised OpenAI isn’t keeping o1-pro private so they can use it for training o3 and newer models. Eventually, AI models will train themselves, leading to the big AGI and ASI breakthroughs we’re waiting for.
Gwern suggests that OpenAI may already be on the verge of a big breakthrough, or they’ve already done it behind closed doors:
If you’re wondering why OAers are suddenly weirdly, almost euphorically, optimistic on Twitter, watching the improvement from the original 4o model to o3 (and wherever it is now!) may be why. It’s like watching the AlphaGo Elo curves: it just keeps going up… and up… and up…
There may be a sense that they’ve ‘broken out’ and have finally crossed the last threshold of criticality, from merely cutting-edge Al work, which everyone else will replicate in a few years, to takeoff – cracked intelligence to the point of being recursively self-improving and where o4 or o5 will be able to automate AI R&D and finish off the rest.
This isn’t just about OpenAI being close to the next massive improvement in AI but also the future beyond that. Access to superintelligence will make subsequent AI developments easier and more efficient because an AI mind will handle the next innovations.
Also, in a scenario where OpenAI might be close to AGI and ASI, it would obtain an incredible advantage over competitors. Other AI firms that have not established their own superintelligence will have to develop AI with traditional methods. In contrast, OpenAI would have ASI employing its own discoveries to create better AI, and it’ll do it more efficiently.
This is all speculation at this point, as OpenAI has yet to make any announcements. But it’s all based on the recent hype from Sam Altman and other OpenAI engineers. Of course, they always seem to go out of their way to hype OpenAI’s efforts on social media, so this all could simply be more of the same.
Also, if and when ChatGPT AGI and ASI are reached, don’t expect it to be affordable or even available publicly. At least, not initially. OpenAI rivals might be just as close to AGI and ASI, but they might be more restrained in teasing imminent breakthroughs.
Finally, there’s also the safety aspect to consider. Artificial intelligence, from the current ChatGPT models to AGI and ASI, will have to be aligned with humanity’s interests so it doesn’t develop its own agenda, which could almost certainly endanger our species.
Back to GPT-5, it’ll still be interesting to see what OpenAI does next in terms of ChatGPT upgrades. More news about o3 should come soon. Then, GPT-4o will celebrate its first anniversary this summer. Some sort of upgrade for the base ChatGPT model is surely due soon.
