We’ve discussed the prospect of Apple making a Google Search rival for years, and reports have said that work on an Apple Search product has already begun. Apple already uses its own search products for on-device queries on the iPhone, iPad, and Mac. At the same time, Apple has been raking in billions from its multi-year deal with Google to make Google Search the default search engine on mobile devices. Google paid about $20 billion in 2022 alone for that privilege, and the figure would probably only go up in the coming years if it weren’t for one issue that has arisen in recent years.
The Department of Justice won a big case against Google this year, with a judge concluding the company has a monopoly on search. The DOJ already wants to break Google apart, with Chrome being a potential victim. Android could be another one. Google is fighting it, and a judge is due to issue a final verdict next year.
Whatever happens in the case, the Apple-Google deal is in peril, and Apple doesn’t like it. The company filed a document with the court this week explaining why the agreement is important and why it’s not working on its own Apple Search product.
While Eddy Cue’s explanations make sense, I’ll point out the obvious elephant in the room: the emergence of genAI software. ChatGPT Search proves to me that an Apple Search product is inevitable, regardless of the outcome of Google’s antitrust trial loss.
Apple says Apple Search is not in the works
Via Reuters, Eddy Cue’s declaration in support of Apple’s motion to intervene is a defense of the deal between Apple and Google.
Apple’s Senior vice president of Services said that the DOJ’s case affects Apple’s ability to provide a great customer experience. The proposed measures would require Apple to either offer Google Search as the default on the iPhone without getting a cut of the revenue, or choose a different search engine, which could hurt the customer experience.
How does Apple Search factor into all of this? Apple says that the DOJ assumes Apple would develop its own search engine if it lost Google Search revenue. Eddy Cue says that’s not true and Apple witnesses can testify that’s not going to happen. Then, the exec listed the three reasons why Apple is not working on a Search product of its own:
There are several reasons why Apple does not plan to create a search engine.
First, Apple is focused on other growth areas. The development of a search engine would require diverting both capital investment and employees because creating a search engine would cost billions of dollars and take many years.
Second, search is rapidly evolving due to recent and ongoing developments in Artificial Intelligence. That makes it economically risky to devote the huge resources that would be required to create a search engine.
And third, a viable search engine would require building a platform to sell targeted advertising, which is not a core business of Apple. Apple does not have the volume of specialized professionals and significant operational infrastructure needed to build and run a successful search advertising business.
Although Apple does have some niche advertising, such as on the App Store platform, search advertising is different and outside of Apple’s core expertise. Building a search advertising business would also need to be balanced against Apple’s longstanding privacy commitments.
One could agree with everything Eddy Cue said above. Sure, Apple Search would be difficult, expensive, and problematic for the revenue, at least initially. But, as an Apple customer, I can’t appreciate Apple telling me that something is too difficult and expensive for Apple to make. At least, not when the Vision Pro exists, and not while Apple is making massive investments in Apple Intelligence. Aren’t these economically risky?
As for the privacy arguments, how is it better for the privacy of the regular iPhone user to have Google Search as the default?
The ChatGPT Search angle
The real reason I think Apple Search is inevitable concerns ChatGPT Search. OpenAI stepped into the online search field to bolster its ChatGPT offerings. Its own search engine lets ChatGPT browse the web to collect data and can help the chatbot become more accurate.
Apple doesn’t have a ChatGPT alternative of its own, so it partnered with OpenAI to include the chatbot in iOS 18. However, Apple is developing a Siri LLM with similar chat capabilities to ChatGPT. Rumors say Siri LLM will be part of iOS 19, and we’ll actually get it at some point in 2026.
Once Apple replaces ChatGPT with a Siri LLM or offers the latter alongside ChatGPT in iOS, I think Apple Search is inevitable. The alternative is having Apple rely on Google Search and rivals, maybe even ChatGPT Search, for updated information iPhone users might inquire about.
In my scenario, Apple Search would be years away. Apple wouldn’t release a product until it felt it was up to its standards. Therefore, I think Apple is trying to protect its Google Search revenue until we get to the point where an Apple Search product is viable. Those tens of billions from Google could very well finance the “economically risky” Apple Search endeavor.
