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Coronavirus update: Here’s an estimate of when the worst will hit your state

Published Mar 30th, 2020 11:28PM EDT
Coronavirus USA
Image: Dan Callister/Shutterstock

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  • The COVID-19 coronavirus is continuing to infect a growing number of Americans, with the total number of infections as of Monday night standing at more than 164,000, according to the latest numbers from Johns Hopkins University.
  • Also, more than 3,000 Americans have died so far from the virus — more than the number of Americans who perished in the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks.
  • This website tool has built projections for all 50 states, as well as the country as a whole, showing when each state will hit its peak number of estimated deaths from the virus, as well as when its hospital capacity is expected to hit its peak.
  • Visit BGR’s homepage for more stories.

As deaths continue to mount and infections continue to rise from the novel coronavirus pandemic, not to mention the catastrophic economic impact that’s being felt at the local, state, and federal level here in the US, one question continues to be asked by people desperate for the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel:

How much longer will this go on?

There’s so much we don’t know about this virus, from why it hits some people hard while completely sparing other people to when the spread will finally taper off. New York City, in particular, has been hit hard and is struggling to keep its health care infrastructure from collapsing under the weight of the virus. Meanwhile, researchers from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics have come up with a model estimating when every state will hit its peak in terms of hospital use and resources hitting its max, as well as deaths from the virus peaking in the state.

You can check out all of those estimates here, but be warned: These numbers are downright gloomy. The website, for example, is currently showing that the US will experience its worst single day of deaths from the coronavirus around the middle of April, with an estimated 2,271 deaths from the virus projected for April 15.

These projections can seem pretty scary, because while that number reflects the worst single-day death total from the virus in the US, another estimate is that the cumulative total of deaths to-date from the virus will top 82,000 by early August.

If you plug in different states, the estimates show New York hitting its peak in coronavirus deaths a little over a week from now, while Florida’s would come in early May. And it’s important to underscore that the team behind the website makes it clear at the top of the page that “The projections assume the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures.”

It’s pretty easy to use; just type in the state you want to look at the estimates for. Bottom line — we’re not out of the woods yet, and if we let our collective foot off the gas even just a little, things are going to get a lot worse, and fast.

Dr. Deborah Birx, the response coordinator for the White House coronavirus task force, said this weekend on Meet the Press that “The sooner that we react and the sooner the states and the metro areas react and ensure that they put in full mitigation at the same time understanding exactly what their hospitals need, then we’ll be able to move forward together and protect the most Americans.”

Andy Meek Trending News Editor

Andy Meek is a reporter based in Memphis who has covered media, entertainment, and culture for over 20 years. His work has appeared in outlets including The Guardian, Forbes, and The Financial Times, and he’s written for BGR since 2015. Andy's coverage includes technology and entertainment, and he has a particular interest in all things streaming.

Over the years, he’s interviewed legendary figures in entertainment and tech that range from Stan Lee to John McAfee, Peter Thiel, and Reed Hastings.

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