It took Apple fewer than 35 minutes on Friday to sell out the iPhone 16 Pro Max stock it had available for online sales. Within an hour, the iPhone 16 Pro was also sold out. Delivery estimates slipped into October for the two models, although some were still available for in-store pick-up. The iPhone 16 and 16 Plus fared better on Friday, though some versions of the Plus sold out over the weekend.
That sounds like any other iPhone preorder experience. It also seems like good news for Apple, whose job this year is more difficult than in years past. Apple is marketing the iPhone 16 series as AI phones, but Apple Intelligence features won’t be available until October. In other words, it’s an AI phone with no AI to speak of, and no other noteworthy marquee features to appeal to prospective buyers.
Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst familiar with Apple’s complex supply chain, has seemingly figured out how many iPhones Apple might have sold during the preorder weekend. We might be looking at 37 million units across the entire iPhone 16 series. That sounds like a huge figure, considering Apple reportedly plans to make up to 88 million iPhone 16 units in total this year. That estimate also comes from Kuo.
But the 37 million figure is lower than the iPhone 15 series, Kuo says.
Before we look at Kuo’s figures, I’ll remind you that these numbers are not official. Apple will never confirm them.
Apple no longer reports new iPhone sales for the launch weekend. Even if it did, that figure would be lower than Kuo’s tally. Apple only used to account for iPhone units that were delivered on day 1 or sold in stores. If your iPhone 16 is sold out and will ship after September 20th, your purchase will not make it into those numbers.
On to Kuo’s figures, the analyst posted a report on Medium, where he shared the following numbers.
Kuo used supply chain surveys and preorder information from Apple’s official websites to come up with the numbers.
According to his data, Apple sold 37 million combined iPhone 16 units, a 12.7% drop compared to iPhone 15 first-weekend preorders. Lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 16 Pros might explain why Apple hasn’t matched last year’s figures.
Apple reportedly sold 17.1 million iPhone 16 Pro Max units out of the estimated 37 million. The Pro Max is experiencing shipping delays of 3-4 weeks. That’s a 16% sales drop compared to the iPhone 15 Pro Max, which faced a 7-8 weeks shipping delay last year.
Kuo notes that Apple has improved tetraprism camera component manufacturing this year, which helped it make more iPhone 16 Pro Max units than last year. I’ll add that only the iPhone 15 Pro Max had a tetraprism camera.
The iPhone 16 Pro comes in second place with 9.8 million sold units, a 27% drop compared to its predecessor. The iPhone 16 Pro has a 1-2 weeks delivery delay. Last year, the iPhone 15 Pro shipping dates slipped 3-4 weeks during the preorder weekend.
Adding the tetraprism camera to the iPhone 16 Pro and maintaining iPhone 15 prices for the iPhone 16 lineup reportedly had a limited effect on iPhone 16 preorder weekend sales.
Kuo’s data shows an uptick in iPhone 16 Plus and iPhone 16 sales. Sales of the Plus are especially surprising, as the model sold 48% better than its predecessor. If the estimates are accurate, that only accounts for 2.6 million units sold.
Kuo says that Apple should not make significant changes to iPhone 16 production so soon despite the drop in sales. Apple can improve iPhone 16 sales in the fourth quarter of the year following the release of Apple Intelligence as we’re heading into the holiday season.
Kuo cites the lack of Apple Intelligence features as one reason for the drop in sales. The “intense competition in the Chinese market continues to impact iPhone demand” is another.
Kuo thinks Apple “will implement more aggressive iPhone product strategies in 2025 to stimulate market demand” if the arrival of Apple Intelligence and peak holiday season promotions do not significantly improve iPhone 16 sales. Does that mean Apple will cut iPhone 16 prices in some markets? Apple did that with the iPhone 15 series in China last year, and those limited promotions seem to have helped.
If Kuo’s figures are accurate, there’s good news in all of this. If you missed out on getting your preorder in early on Friday, you won’t have to wait too long to get your desired iPhone 16 model.
