The Vision Pro spatial computer is still available for preorder before its Friday launch, with a report claiming that Apple has already sold 200,000 units. This follows a similar estimate from a few days ago that mentioned sales of up to 180,000 units.
Is any of that enough to get excited about the first ever Apple computer that you wear on your head? I’d say that it might be too early to tell whether the Vision Pro is a success despite this seemingly impressive milestone.
In the months before the Vision Pro went on sale, we heard estimates that Apple would be unable to manufacture more than 400,000 units during the first year. That’s not necessarily because of the $3,499 starting price of the device, and any worries from Apple that it might not move enough Vision Pro units.
Reports said the Vision Pro would be more difficult to manufacture than other Apple devices. The spatial computer is a first-gen device that contains sophisticated hardware. It’ll be a while until production yields improve. Therefore, Apple would not be able to sell 1 million units in the first year, a target that appeared in other estimates in the more distant past.
It’s unlikely Apple will provide Vision Pro sales figures in the near future, though I’m sure it’ll quantify them in some way during the inevitable questions it’ll have to answer. The Vision Pro is a big bet for the company, which aims to chart the course of the post-iPhone future. The Vision Pro is clearly the precursor of the AR glasses we want Apple to make.
But figures will leak to give us an idea of the Vision Pro’s market success. MacRumors says it learned from a source that Apple sold upwards of 200,000 Vision Pro headsets. Last week, Ming-Chi Kuo said Apple sold between 160,000 and 180,000 Vision Pro units during the first preorder weekend.
That seems like a success. If Apple sold some 50% of the estimated first-year capacity for the Vision Pro, it’s a great start for the spatial computer. However, there are some caveats.
The MacRumors update indicates that demand might have already tapered for the spatial computer. However, I will remind you that the Vision Pro stock Apple saved for home deliveries sold out within hours. In-store pickup options followed. Buyers who didn’t pull the trigger during the first day might still do it later once more stock is available.
Also, reports indicated that scalpers might have purchased the Vision Pro with the help of bots that automated sales. Since preorders started, we’ve already seen the Vision Pro go up on eBay for prices going up to $10,000.
Separately, I’ll note that buyers have two weeks to try the device and decide whether it’s worth keeping. It’ll be interesting to see what Vision Pro sales estimates look like after the return window closes for launch day preorders.
As someone who wants to buy the Vision Pro, I’m definitely interested in the Vision Pro’s success during US preorders. It might dictate what Apple does next. Apple might prioritize the US market over international sales if it can sustain interest. If not, it could launch the spatial computer in more markets where Apple enthusiasts and early adopters must be dying to get the Vision Pro.
All of that is speculation, of course. But I’m certain insiders like Ming-Chi Kuo will continue to provide updates from the Vision Pro supply chain. After all, Apple’s manufacturing partners in Asia are directly interested in the Vision Pro’s success.
Separately, Apple will release its quarterly earnings for the December 2024 period later this week. Questions about the Vision Pro sales are guaranteed during the upcoming earnings call.
Apple sold some 200,000 Vision Pro units during preorders: Is the spatial computer a sales success already?
