A city-killer asteroid is currently on NASA’s radar because it has a small chance of hitting Earth in 2032. However, new reports suggest that it could hit the Moon instead.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is roughly 180 feet (55 meters) wide—though this number continues to change as new estimates come in—and has a 1-in-43 chance (2.3 percent) of colliding with Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. However, recent calculations suggest that this space rock also has a 0.3 percent chance of slamming into the Moon.
While that probability is low, such an impact could be a spectacular sight from Earth—and honestly, probably a better option than it hitting Earth. Astronomers estimate the asteroid is currently traveling at 30,000 mph (48,000 kph). If it struck Earth, it could wipe out an entire city, releasing 8 megatons of energy—that’s 500 times more powerful than the Hiroshima atomic bomb.
Fortunately, the odds are still heavily favoring a miss rather than an impact. But what happens if this city-killer asteroid hits the Moon instead? According to David Rankin, an operations engineer at the University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey, if 2024 YR4 hit the Moon, the explosion would be visible from Earth.
The impact would release the energy equivalent of 340 Hiroshima bombs, creating a massive explosion on the lunar surface. Despite the spectacular display, scientists say there’s no real danger to Earth.
While some debris might be ejected from the impact, Gareth Collins, a professor of planetary science at Imperial College London, told New Scientist that any material reaching Earth would likely burn up in our atmosphere before causing harm.
If the city-killer asteroid hit the Moon, it would leave a 1.2-mile-wide (2-km) crater. While that might sound massive, it’s relatively small compared to the Moon’s largest craters.
The Moon’s surface is already scarred by the remains of countless past asteroid impacts, so one more wouldn’t drastically change its appearance. However, as noted above, the chance of an impact on Earth is already pretty low, and the chances of an impact on the Moon are even lower.
