One of the oldest adages about investing is that you can’t time the market. Sure, you can do your best to try, but if you’re hoping to accumulate a vast amount of wealth a’la Warren Buffet, you might want to try investing for the long-term instead of gambling your money away with multiple trades a week.
Still, that sound piece of advice has never stopped enterprising folks from trying to strike it rich. And with Apple slated to post its earnings later today, one day-trader who frequents the WallStreetBets subreddit — where bold and crazy bets are the norm — has decided to risk everything on the prospect of Apple shares dipping following its earnings report.
After nearly squandering $2.5 million inheritance on bad investments and poor stock plays, our fearless Montreal-based investor F.S. Comeau decided to use his last $249,000 to bet big against Apple shares rising.
“Basically, he is using what’s left of his stash to bet big against Apple by buying put options that, according to Comeau, could net him upwards of a few million if his prediction holds true,” MarketWatch reports. “But if Apple, which currently sits near $122, trades at $128 or above after the report — poof! — [$249,000] gone.”
The real gold, though, is Comeau’s lengthy Reddit explanation as to why he believes Apple shares will tank following earnings later today. In a post hilariously titled, “Well, this is it: Going All-in. My last stand. My final Yolo. $2M-5M possible payoff”, Comeau details the entirety of his gambling (err, investing) history along with some overarching explanations as to why Apple is doomed.
If I liquidated all my positions and stopped trading today, yes, I could probably repay my debts. And then what? I would have almost nothing left, nothing at all. My $2.5M would be gone forever and perhaps most of my mental sanity along with it. What’s the point? Truth be told, at this point, I have really nothing to lose. Worst case scenario, this yolo fails and I go bankrupt. If I’m going out, well, I’m going out big. I’d rather take my chance to get my money back.
This is perhaps my last chance in life to “hit it big,” aka be someone. I won’t get another chance like this. Look, I’ll be blunt: I want my two point five million back. It’s mine and I want it back, period. Unless you’ve hit it big and lost it all, you don’t know how incredibly painful it is to look at $325,000 (Canadian) and think, “Yeah, this used to be 7 times higher.”
As Comeau tells it, he started his investing career with Apple and he figures he might as well end it with Apple as well. A self-proclaimed “Apple expert”, Comeau steadfastly believes that Apple later today will report a massive earnings miss.
iPhone sales will be down 10-15% – and that will be the good part of their earnings report. iPads are basically dead. The iPad pro is nothing more than a joke. It probably sold less than the Pixel. Okay, not that bad, but trust me, iPad sales have been terrible for a while and this time, they’ll be so bad Apple might actually throw in the towel. Truth be told, Apple is 2+ years late and 5+ years late in some sectors when compared to the industry.
And apart from iPhone and iPads, What else does Apple has at this point? Mac sales are down, the iPod is dead, the Apple Watch… let’s not even mention the Apple Watch lol. What else does Apple have? iTunes revenues? That’s like a billion dollars, who cares.
After blasting the iPhone 7, Comeau goes on to articulate why Apple has lost its innovative edge.
Tomorrow’s dreadful earnings will mark the end of Apple as an innovative company as we know it. It will now be priced as a commodity company and this implies a much, much lower valuation.
Google is still able to grow. Microsoft is still about to grow. Apple is about to report a sharp drop in earnings, around 15-20% and perhaps as large as 25%, if they are honest (they can still fudge the number somewhat). With much lower iPhone sales, it’s simply not possible for them to beat the very inflated earnings estimates. This sharp drop in earnings, coupled with a terrible guidance for the rest of 2017 (strong USD, world tensions due to Trump, Apple failing in China – all points I don’t have time to cover, but which are very valid) will lead to Apple getting one of the biggest hits in the history of hits.
While there’s no way to anticipate how Apple shares will perform post-earnings, it’s worth noting that Apple later today is expected to post record revenue in the $77.4 billion range. What’s more, it’s also believed that Apple will report a return to iPhone growth bolstered by better than anticipated demand for the iPhone 7.
