Apple isn’t going to overtake Android in terms of market share anytime soon, but the company’s upcoming iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus will apparently continue to hurt Google where it hurts most. A recent study from Phoenix and SessionM’s mXP platform reveals that as many as 12% of Android users are interested in the upcoming iPhone models and are considering a switch instead of sticking with or upgrading to a new Android device.

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More than 39,000 users responded to just one question “Are you planning on buying the new iPhone this fall?” on August 11th. The question was sent to more than 12 million mobile device users, with thousands of responses coming in a matter of hours. Of those who answered the question, 42% were Android users, and 58% were iOS users. Some 12% of existing Android users said they’re considering the purchase, and 46% of existing iOS users confirmed they will upgrade to a new model.

Since launching the iPhone 6, Apple has continuously said that many of its customers come from Android, and the trend might continue once the new iPhone 6s arrives this fall. Converting clients from the competition might hurt Google at least in the short term, as some seasoned smartphone owners looking to spend top dollar on new devices and associated digital goods would dump Google for Apple. Google would not lose market share, as it keeps adding new Android users, but many of them would be smartphone buyers on a budget who wouldn’t even consider an iPhone as their first purchase.

Even if Apple is converting more Android users than ever with its iPhone 6s models, IDC said on Monday that new smartphone owners are more likely to get a much cheaper Android device at first, considering the fierce price wars between Android device makers. Android is expected to go from 1.06 billion units in 2014 to 1.16 billion this year and 1.56 billion in 2019.

Looking at the current and future mobile market, IDC noted that Apple will grow from 192.7 million iPhone units sold in 2014 to 223.7 million units in 2015 and 269.6 million units in 2019. However, Google will still retain the lion’s share when it comes to smartphone market share though it won’t see any growth, percentage-wise, over the years. Neither will Apple, whose increased iPhone sales will lead to a minor drop in share in the following years (see image below).

idc-iphone-android-estimatesImage Source: IDC

Meanwhile, Samsung is also testing its own somewhat successful try-before-you-buy Galaxy program that targets iPhone users, though Samsung is yet to announce how many iPhone users it was able to convert to a brand new handset.

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