Apple quietly launched its second-generation iPad mini tablet earlier this week and even in the accompanying press release, the company said supply could be tight. Just how tight, however, remained a mystery. According to KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who is likely the most reliable industry watcher on the planet when it comes to Apple, the Retina iPad mini will be incredibly difficult to find this holiday season. Kuo said in a research note picked up by 9to5Mac on Wednesday that Apple will likely ship fewer than 2.3 million Retina iPad mini tablets this holiday season, a figure that likely wouldn’t even come close to meeting holiday demand. Kuo expects shipments to improve 102% to about 4.5 million units in the first quarter next year, so those who don’t manage to get their hands on a new mini by the end of the year should have better luck in 2014.