After facing plenty of criticism for failing to release big-screen iPhones, Apple in 2014 finally released two new models that featured displays that were bigger than anything seen on an iPhone before. The iPhone 6 release turned out to be a supercycle for Apple, convincing many smartphone buyers to get an iPhone and helping Apple break new sales and profit records. The same phenomenon is expected again this year when the exciting new iPhone 8 is projected to convince more iPhone owners than ever before to get a brand new iPhone. In fact, analysts at Nomura expect a new supercycle for Apple this year that’s unlike anything we’ve ever seen.
The iPhone 8 will be a much bigger launch than the iPhone 6, the analysts expect. The current iOS subscriber base is 45-50% bigger than it was in 2014, so Nomura believes this big supercycle will be “underappreciated.”
“Consensus calls for 80 million iPhones in F1Q18 (Dec ’17) … only modestly above the iPhone 6 supercycle (75 million),” analysts Jeffrey Kvaal and Gregory McNiff said in a note seen by Business Insider. “However, we estimate the iPhone 8 will launch into an iOS subscriber base 45-50% larger than the iPhone 6 did and model 86 million iPhones in F1Q18 (from 83 million).”
“We believe the iPhone 6 drove the iOS base up ~35%, followed by 5-10% increases from the subsequent devices,” they noted.
Those iPhone 6 owners who have not upgraded to any of the recent “boring” updates, including the iPhone 6s and iPhone 7, might be more inclined to jump on the iPhone 8 this fall. Apple is expected to launch three brand new iPhones this year, including a radically redesigned iPhone 8 as well as an iPhone 7s and iPhone 7s Plus.
The iPhone 8 is tipped to have an OLED display, a nearly edgeless all-screen design with the home button embedded under the display, and a glass housing that might make wireless charging a possibility.
