Over the weekend, Tesla CEO Elon Musk teased that it may only be a matter of days before he releases part 2 of Tesla’s “Top Secret Masterplan.” Part 1 of Tesla’s masterplan was originally released all the way back in 2006 and clearly outlined what Tesla wanted to achieve in the auto industry. And looking back, Tesla, rather impressively, has essentially accomplished everything it sought out to do.
So with Musk now promising a part 2 to what was an unabashedly ambitious original masterplan, the air of excitement and intrigue that surrounds Tesla only continues to climb higher. Naturally, the speculation regarding what Tesla has in store has been running rampant over the last few days, with some opining that the forthcoming missive may detail advancements in battery technology or a more precise timeline regarding Level 4 autonomous driving.
Throwing his own hat into the ring, Morgan Stanley auto analyst Adam Jonas recently issued a research report outlining what he expects Tesla’s future to look like, and suffice it to say, it’s altogether intriguing.
Jonas has long been intrigued by the idea of fully autonomous vehicles roaming the roads, and this theme permeates through Jonas’ research note. In short, Jonas believes that Tesla has its eyes set on becoming a commercial transportation company with an arm called Tesla Mobility.
Jonas’ research note reads in part:
Tesla’s mission statement (www.teslamotors.com/about) is very clear: To accelerate the development of sustainable transport. ln our opinion, a business model based on selling cars to private owners who achieve a time utilization of 4pct and an available seat-mile utilization of 1pct may not be sustainable. We believe all auto firms, including Tesla, must confront this strategic shift.
The auto industry is in the early metamorphosis from privately-owned model to a public transport utility. Exploiting the commercial opportunities embedded in 10 trillion miles annually (1.7 Light Years), 600bn hours of driver and passenger time (68 million years) and the associated content and data (for sale or analysis) may be worth a significant multiple of Tesla’s current addressable market for car sales.
We believe that Tesla’s unique advantages in machine learning and lack of exposure to legacy systems (internal combustion tech, unconnected cars) provide it with an opportunity to tap into larger and faster growing markets ahead of its competitors.
Looking ahead, Jonas adds that this now-mythical Tesla Mobility arm may include upwards of 5,000 vehicles. Notably, Jonas is the same analyst who just last summer asked Elon Musk if the company had any plans to get into the ridesharing business, a question that Musk said was “insightful” before saying that “I don’t think I should answer it.”