Can the iPhone 6s help Apple beat its record-breaking Christmas quarter from a year ago? That’s one question many analysts have tried to answer, but a new prediction from a reliable source says that’s not likely to happen.

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A note from KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo seen by MacRumors and 9to5Mac says Apple will is likely to report next week that it sold 48.5 million iPhones during the September quarter, including more than 13 million iPhone 6s units sold during the first weeks after launch. That’s a 23.6% increase compared to Apple’s fourth quarter in the fiscal year 2014 (last year’s September quarter). In fact, KGI estimates that Apple may have sold as many as 22 million iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus units during the September quarter.

However, KGI doesn’t see Apple beating its holiday iPhone sales quarter. Huge iPhone 6 sales helped Apple report its biggest quarter yet in its January earnings announcement. Total iPhone sales for the December 2014 quarter reached an impressive 74.5 million units, a number accurately predicted by the same analysts from KGI. This time around, Kuo says Apple will sell anywhere between 70 million to 75 million iPhones during the period, which will still be a massive number of iPhones. But, if it even increases at all, Apple’s year-on-year growth will be minimal, assuming that the 75 million iPhone sales milestone is reached.

KGI also says that iPad and Mac sales will also fall. Apple will report a 9.5% year-on-year fall for iPad sales and a 1.5% fall for Macs. Compared to the June quarter, iPad sales will see a 2% rise while Mac sales will increase by 13.3%, respectively.

As for the iPad Pro that is supposed to launch in following weeks, Kuo says Apple will sell only up to 2 million units during the Christmas quarter, lower than KGI’s initial 5 million unit estimates.

The analysts predicts Apple stock to fall next week unless Apple can provide an upbeat guidance for the December quarter. The long-term outlook for Apple shares is good, KGI says, as most of the issues it covers are largely factored into the share price, and the market will soon switch focus to future growth drivers next year.

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