Things have been going pretty well for Apple’s iPhone business this year and this holiday shopping season is shaping up to be its biggest yet. Per 9to5Mac, KGI Securities has released a new research note estimating that Apple will sell 71.5 million iPhones this holiday quarter, headlined by blowout sales from the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus.

That figure would crush the record 51 million iPhones Apple sold last year during the holiday quarter.

RELATED: Apple might sell more than 200 million iPhone 6 units in FY2015

“Strong iPhone shipments in 4Q14,” KGI writes. “We forecast overall iPhone shipments will surge 82% QoQ to 71.5mn units in 4Q14, given robust demand for iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus. The iPhone 6 Plus supply shortage implies not only robust demand, but also confirms our concerns regarding constraints within the supply chain. We believe 4Q14 iPhone shipments will be stronger if supply chain constraints are eased.”

In its breakdown, KGI estimates Apple will sell 41.6 million iPhone 6 models, 15.1 million iPhone 6 Plus models, 8.8 million iPhone 5s models and 4.3 million iPhone 5c models. KGI expects a significant 31% dropout in iPhone sales after the holiday quarter, however, as it thinks Apple will “only” sell 49.3 million in the first fiscal quarter next year. In other words, the quarter-over-quarter decline in sales will bring iPhone sales down to a level most smartphone manufacturers can still only dream of.

KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has emerged over the past couple of years as one of the top sources for Apple leaks and earlier this year he absolutely nailed all the major details about the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus.

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