A strong launch lineup and a few major system updates won’t be enough to put the Xbox One over the PlayStation 4 in 2014, if Wedbush Securities is correct in its predictions. According to a recent report from the analysts at Wedbush, the PlayStation 4 will outsell the Xbox One 12 million to 9 million this year, owing mostly to the $100 price difference between the two consoles.

“The lack of differentiation between the PS4 and the Xbox One means that consumers will initially make their purchase decision based on brand loyalty or price, with the former favoring Microsoft and the latter favoring Sony,” wrote Wedbush. “Our choice of the PS4 to win the next generation console race is purely a function of its price; at $399, we believe the PS4 presents a more compelling value proposition than the $499 Xbox One.”

Whichever company wins the race, there is only one true loser so far this generation: Nintendo. After another year of dismal sales, Wedbush predicts that the Wii U will “languish in a distant third place” with just 3 million sales in 2014, a forecast that lines up with Nintendo’s.