Apple’s popular iPad line will still dominate the consumer tablet market a full decade after its initial launch, according to one analyst. In a new report, Needham analyst Charlie Wolf sees the iPad’s share of consumer tablet shipments declining gradually over the next nine years to 60% in 2020. 60%, of course, is still an overwhelming share of the market. Future tablets are more likely to steal market share from each other rather than from the iPad, the analyst explains, noting that competitive offerings to date have been greeted by consumers with “a yawn and lackluster sales.” Wolf sees iPad shipments reaching 35.61 million units in 2011, up 137.4% from last year and representing 85% of all tablets shipped. In 2012, iPad shipments will grow to 54.3 million units according to Wolf’s model, and shipments will hit 72.66 million units in 2013. The analyst sees iPad shipments reaching nearly 140 million units in 2020, representing 60% of all tablets shipped that year and accounting for $53 billion in revenue and $16 billion in profit despite an average selling price that will have dropped to $377 from $630 in 2010. Wolf’s 10-year iPad projections follow below. More →
Needham & Company analyst Charlie Wolf on Tuesday raised his estimates for iPad shipments in the fiscal third quarter and full year. Wolf now believes increased demand will boost third-quarter shipments from 7.5 million to 9 million units, and he thinks Apple will ship a whopping 30 million iPad 2 tablets in fiscal 2011. “While competitors have rushed to launch competing tablets, they have made an imperceptible dent in the trajectory of iPad sales,” the analyst wrote in his note. “They have been unable to undercut the price of the iPad; and they’re fallen woefully short in matching its features, ease-of-use and the number of applications written for the device. Indeed, the only risk in our forecast is on the supply side, not the demand side.” Wolf also bumped his fiscal third-quarter Mac shipment projection from 3.75 million units to 4.25 million and 17 million units for the full year. Finally, he reduced his fiscal fourth-quarter iPhone estimates from 17.5 million units to 16 million, stating that Apple is likely to slow iPhone 4 shipments ahead of the iPhone 5’s launch in September. For the full year, Wolf sees iPhone shipments totaling 66 million units.