Gene Munster: Android’s annual ARPU could be $10 in 2012

By on February 9, 2011 at 8:14 PM.

Gene Munster: Android’s annual ARPU could be $10 in 2012

Think Android isn’t creating a serious amount of cash for Google? Think again. According to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, the search giant’s free mobile operating system could generate as much as $1.3 billion in revenue for Google in 2012. With an estimated 133 million users, that’s an annual ARPU (average revenue per user) of roughly $9.85. Translation: every Android handset sold nets Google roughly $10 per year in ad revenues alone. Those are pretty impressive numbers. With over 300,000 new activations each time the calendar turns, Google continues to add nearly $3 million in mobile, ad-driven revenue to its bottom line… daily. If you’re going to give something away for free, that’s how to do it. More →

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Piper Jaffray predicts 2011 Apple roadmap

By on January 3, 2011 at 9:29 AM.

Piper Jaffray predicts 2011 Apple roadmap

Predictions from Piper Jaffray’s managing director and senior research analyst Gene Munster have been compared to darts tossed at a 10-foot dartboard, but that won’t stop the man from churning out new notes. On Monday, Mr. Munster laid out his roadmap for Apple in 2011 and it actually looks like he may be in store for a few wins this year. Then again, the roadmap is based almost entirely on things we already know with near certainty — or, in some cases, absolute certainty — so these can hardly be called Munster’s wins if they pan out. Here’s how Apple’s 2011 pans out in Munster’s eyes:

Anouncements:

  • Verizon launch of the iPhone: Probability 95% (March qtr) (our est)
  • Mac App Store: Probability 100% (Jan. 6 launch)
  • iTunes cloud services: Probability 90%
  • iPad geographic expansion: Probability 100%
  • iPad subsidies from carriers: Probability 80%
  • OS X Lion: Probability 100% (summer 2011)

Hardware upgrades:

  • iPhone (March quarter). We are modeling for Apple to launch a CDMA version of the iPhone at Verizon in the March-11 quarter. The fifth generation iPhone will likely ship this summer with NFC capability.
  • iPad (spring). We believe the second generation iPad will launch in spring 2011.
  • Macs (uncertain). We have moderate confidence that Apple will release redesigned MacBook Pros in 1H11 and redesigned iMacs in 2H11.

Munster does also note that Apple may launch some nifty new Web-based services and maybe even a television in 2011, but again, these are just rehashed rumors that have been around for quite a while now.

Read

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Gene Munster: Mac sales up 37% year-over-year this quarter, iPod sales stagnant

By on July 6, 2010 at 4:14 PM.

Gene Munster: Mac sales up 37% year-over-year this quarter, iPod sales stagnant

mac-mini-2010

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has published a report stating that sales of Apple’s Macintosh computers are up 37% year-over-year for the current quarter. Munster goes onto hypothesis that iPad sales are not in-fact cannibalizing Mac sales as some analysts had initially predicted. Also of interest: iPod sales appear to be stagnant (or soft as the Business Insider put it), with a forecast of around 10 million units for 2010 which is on par with the Street’s expectations, but shows no growth from FY 2009. It seems as though the iPod business, which carried Apple across the financial finish line for many years, is now taking a backseat to the Mac, iPad, and iPhone. More →

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Piper Jaffray: 77% of iPhone 4 buyers upgraded

By on June 25, 2010 at 9:10 AM.

Piper Jaffray: 77% of iPhone 4 buyers upgraded

Piper Jaffray iP4 Poll

Piper Jaffray analyst, Gene Munster, has just released some statistics used for his iPhone 4 launch analysis. The poll, which surveyed 608 iPhone 4 purchasers, indicated that 77% of those buying the new hardware were upgrading from a previous iModel. Some other stats include:

  • 77% of the iPhone 4 buyers they spoke to were upgrading from a previous version. That’s up from 56% in 2009 and 38% in 2008. Last week, Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty predicted that the upgrade rate would be roughly 50%.
  • 16% of buyers were switching carriers to AT&T, down from 28% last year
  • 54% purchased the higher-capacity 32GB model, up from 43% last year
  • 28% already owned an iPad
  • Of the 72% that did not own an iPad, 39% indicated that they would likely purchase one in the next 12 months

Munster also asked the 23% of users who were first time iPhone buyers what their previous phone of choice was. The results looked like this: 6% were former BlackBerry users, 3% Android, 2% Nokia, 0.03% Palm, and 12% Other. The analyst estimates sales of between 1 and 1.5 million iPhone 4’s in the first four days of sales; those numbers include pre-orders. Hit the read link to see the full report, complete with comparisons from the three previous iPhone launches. More →

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Analyst: 300,000 iPad 3Gs sold over the weekend

By on May 3, 2010 at 7:24 AM.

Analyst: 300,000 iPad 3Gs sold over the weekend

ipad-launch

Sure, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster totally blew it when he guesstimated that Apple sold 700,000 iPads during the launch weekend of the Wi-Fi-only model, but that didn’t stop him from spending his Sunday penning a note to investors in which he estimated that Apple moved some 300,000 3G units this past weekend. If his assumption is correct (we feel it necessary to add it was simply obtained by calling 50 Apple Stores and finding all but one of them with no iPads left on shelves), this would mean Apple has more than surpassed the 1 million mark considering 1) 300,000 were sold one month ago today, and 2) it only took 500,000 sold to derail the international launch. Munster is sticking to his “conservative estimate” that Apple will sell 4.3 million iPads across the globe in 2010 with about 60% of them being the Wi-Fi model. More →

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Apple sells 300,000 iPads as of Saturday

By on April 5, 2010 at 8:49 AM.

Apple sells 300,000 iPads as of Saturday

ipad-launch

Apple just fired off a press release touting the fact that they’ve sold over 300,000 iPad devices as of Saturday at midnight. A far cry from Gene Munster’s 700,000 (though some could say that’s what happens when you count people and not stock check), it’s still pretty in line with what everyone else was predicting, and that’s kind of amazing. Also, the 300,000 figure is the entire figure — pre-orders, Apple store sales, partner sales, etc. People also downloaded over 250,000 books from the iBooks store as well as over one million apps. Here’s a quote from Steve Jobs:

“It feels great to have the iPad launched into the world — it’s going to be a game changer,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “iPad users, on average, downloaded more than three apps and close to one book within hours of unpacking their new iPad.”

Not bad, not bad. More →

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