Even though demand for Tesla’s Model 3 has been off the charts, the primary metric investors seemingly care about centers on how many units the company actually manages to manufacture and deliver to reservation holders. That said, a new investor note from Goldman Sachs (via MarketWatch) relays that Model 3 deliveries for the first quarter of 2018 will likely fall below Wall St. estimates.

Beyond the Model 3, Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino anticipates that Model S and Model X shipments for the quarter will also disappoint when Tesla formally posts its Q1 earnings next month. Predictably, shares of Tesla fell immediately in the wake of the bearish research note.

The Goldman Sachs research report reads in part:

We believe the company is tracking below its 2018 Model S/X guidance of approx. 100k units (an implied 25,000 per quarter). Further, while monthly Model 3 deliveries are showing sequential improvement, we estimate that they will fall well short of consensus expectations.

Consequently, Goldman Sachs anticipates that Tesla shares may drop down to $205 over the next six months. That’s a bold projection given that Tesla shares haven’t traded in the low $200s since 2016. The projection is even bolder given that Tesla is reportedly getting a better handle on Model 3 production. Last we heard, the company remains confident that Model 3 production will jump to 5,000 units per week by the end of June.

Going forward, it will be interesting to see how the Tesla Semi impacts the company’s stock price, if at all. As we’ve reported previously, Tesla Semi pre-orders have been extremely impressive, with a number of Fortune 500 companies having already placed orders. UPS, for example, ordered 125 units in late December.

Still, demand has never been an issue for Tesla. So while the Tesla Semi is slated to begin production in 2019, it remains to be seen when the vehicle might actually start appearing on the road.

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