Apple will launch the Apple Watch next year, and the company is expected to sell anywhere from 30 million to 40 million smartwatches in its first 12 months of availability, according to a report citing orders Apple may have placed with suppliers. But 30 million Apple Watches in a year might be a “conservative” number, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty said in a recent note to investors.
Huberty said that most analysts expect to sell between 10 million and 30 million smartwatches, adding that 30 million is reasonable and “arguably still conservative,” Business Insider reported.
Morgan Stanley said that by the time Apple Watch hits stores next year, some 315 million Apple customers will own an iPhone 5 or later, estimating that about 10% of them will buy the watch.
Comparatively, 14% of iPhone owners purchased an iPad in its first year, and 7% of iPod owners purchased an iPhone in its first year.
Without an iPhone or iPad, the Apple Watch is pretty much useless, as it’s not meant to be a standalone product and recent documentation from Apple revealed that, at least initially, all Apple Watch apps will actually need an iPhone to run their logic code.
The company also believes that wearables, Apple Watch included, will see significant adoption in the years to come.
“We forecast the wearable market to hit 530M units in 2020 in our base case and 1B units in 2020 in our bull case,” Katy Huberty said.