Have we already reached peak iPad?

Apple Q2 2014 Earnings iPad Sales

Apple’s latest earnings report was mostly good news for the company, but there was one potentially dark cloud: iPad sales. On the quarter, Apple sold 16.35 million iPads, which was below the consensus estimate of 19.7 million units sold. Analyst Benedict Evans has put together a chart for trailing twelve months unit sales for both the iPhone and the iPad and has found that the iPad’s growth has been stopped dead in its tracks.

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Evans says that this raises “a very obvious growth question” for the iPad, which has seen its growth stall despite having a much steeper long-term drop in its average selling price (ASP) than the iPhone.

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If there’s any good news for the iPad in this, it’s that the year-over-year sales drop isn’t as bad as it first looks. Jackdaw analyst Jan Dawson points out that the “real year-over-year sell-through decline in iPad was just 3% vs. 16% sell-in decline.” In other words, the year-over-year decline was actually much closer to 500,000 units and not a decline of 4 million units that Apple posted in its earnings report.

Nonetheless, a year-over-year decline is not a good sign for future iPad sales and as things stand now, the iPad’s best days seem to be behind it.

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