U.S. to use mobile internet more than wireline by 2015, IDC says

Internet

U.S. citizens will use the mobile networks to access the Internet more than wireline networks by 2015 according to IDC’s Worldwide New Media Market Model, 1H11 report which was released on Monday. Smartphone and tablet sales are expected to be the driving catalyst for the growth of mobile Internet use, which IDC predicts will increase 16.6% between 2010 and 2015. Internet usage in Western Europe and Japan is expected to follow a similar trend. IDC suggested the total number of worldwide Internet users will grow from 2 billion in 2010 to 2.7 billion in 2015, when IDC predicts 40% of the global population will have access to the Internet. “Forget what we have taken for granted on how consumers use the Internet,” said Karsten Weide, research vice president, Media and Entertainment. “Soon, more users will access the Web using mobile devices than using PCs, and it’s going to make the Internet a very different place.” Read on for the full release from IDC.

IDC: More Mobile Internet Users Than Wireline Users in the U.S. by 2015

FRAMINGHAM, Mass.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–By 2015, more U.S. Internet users will access the Internet through mobile devices than through PCs or other wireline devices. As smartphones begin to outsell simpler feature phones, and as media tablet sales explode, the number of mobile Internet users will grow by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.6% between 2010 and 2015. The newest release of the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide New Media Market Model (NMMM) forecasts that the impact of smartphone and, especially, media tablet adoption will be so great that the number of users accessing the Internet through PCs will first stagnate and then slowly decline. Western Europe and Japan will not be far behind the U.S. in following this trend.

“Forget what we have taken for granted on how consumers use the Internet”

The New Media Market Model also finds:

  • Worldwide, the total number of Internet user will grow from 2 billion in 2010 to 2.7 billion in 2015, when 40% of the world’s population will have access to its vast resources.
  • Global B2C ecommerce spending will grow from $708 billion in 2010 to $1,285 billion in 2015 at a CAGR of 12.7%.
  • Worldwide online advertising will increase from $70 billion in 2010 to $138 billion in 2015, with its share of total advertising across all media growing from 11.9% to 17.8%.

“Forget what we have taken for granted on how consumers use the Internet,” said Karsten Weide, research vice president, Media and Entertainment. “Soon, more users will access the Web using mobile devices than using PCs, and it’s going to make the Internet a very different place.”

IDC’s Worldwide New Media Market Model, 1H11 (Doc #230024) is the only model that provides blanket data for the most important consumer Internet metrics for more than 40 countries, the regions, and the world, based on one consistent model. Its more than 150,000 data points cover basic socioeconomic data, user numbers, access device numbers, home broadband Internet access penetration, time spent online, online activities, B2B and B2B ecommerce spending, online advertising, and consumer spending on content. This model also breaks out all numbers between the wireline and mobile segments. The New Media Market Model is delivered as a semi-annual Excel database and contains current market-sizing and a five-year forecast.

8 Comments
  • Anonymous

    I don’t know about everyone else but quite frankly this doesn’t come as a surprise to me. People have owned more cell phones than computers for quite some time. The only thing that is new is that instead of just owning a cell phone folks will be getting smart phones capable of browsing the internet now.

    The internet changing part is dead on though. Sites will have to accommodate mobile users more so than ever.

    • http://www.youtube.com/jeromeo1980 Jeromeo

      Skewed predictions…
      The most ‘brilliant’ analysts in the world predicted in 2010 that smartphone sales would outpace PCs in 2012, but smarphones ended up outpacing PCs mere months (not years) after that prediction.
      Both of my sisters work for Morgan Stanley Smith Barney.  They may as well be working for  Mad Men…  Modern analysts are STILL living a ‘traditional lifestyle’ (rush through college, rush to marry, rush to apply for an excessively outlandish mortgage, rush to impregnate and pop out a babies to please families on either side, rush into a fancy lease, rush to age yourself 5x faster than everyone else around you physically), not a current, realistic, logical, reasonable, current, or even modern lifestyle.  These analysts were born in an era before silicon, before mobile phones,
      before the internet, before anything relevant.  They are like many
      other older individuals working for large sums of money in a large, US
      corporations–they are out of touch.
      My 67 year old mother canceled her wireline Comcast internet years ago to use her Android wifi hotspot at home.  She’s paying for 5gb a month on T-Mobile; why shouldn’t she use what she’s already paying for (when HSPA+ is already faster than her available cable)?
      Q: If an old woman (stubborn and resistant to new-fangled technology) both working and on Social Security can ‘see the light’, why can’t quadruple figure-paid analysts see the trends that are right in front of them?
      A: Since they were born without it, they will never truly know how to use the internet to find ANY answer…

  • Anonymous

    Another reason to block the T-Mobile-AT&T merger. I’d rather not have less choices when it comes to picking mobile data plans.

    • http://www.droiddoes.com/ Norm

      tmobile isn’t even a good choice though…their prices are no longer cheaper and their data is unreliable. 

      • Autoexec.bat

        Maybe in your neck of the woods but TMO is among the most reliable in mine.

      • Anonymous

        t-mobile works great in the urban areas, they just suck outside cities.

        I’ll agree about their current price changes though…

  • Anonymous

    Not until the prices substantially drop.  People will not fully utilize these devices until data is faster and cheaper.  

  • Anonymous

    What are you saying, that we will use less than 2gigs on our phone and less than that on our landline? puh-lease.

    look, some of us use 100 or 200 gigs/mo. on our landline (and I’m sure a few ppl pass the terabyte mark). if we used that much on our phones most of us would be bankrupt based on current price structures for the largest 2 carriers. unless data pricing changes, i really don’t see that happening. 

    If you’re counting wifi use on phones as mobile usage, that doesn’t count, cuz it still goes on a landline.

    bottom line, wireline internet will be here to stay (atleast I will still buy it).

    my 2 cents.

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