Amazon could 'easily' sell 3-5 million Android tablets in Q4, analyst suggests

By on Aug 29, 2011 at 3:15 PM
Tablets August 29, 2011

According to a report issued by Forrester Research on Monday, Amazon could “easily” sell between 3 and 5 million tablets during the fourth quarter of this year if it prices the tablet “significantly” below the iPad and can meet customer demand. “Thus far, Apple has faced many would-be competitors, but none have gained significant market share,” Forrester Research analyst Sarah Rotman Epps wrote. “Not only does Amazon have the potential to gain share quickly but its willingness to sell hardware at a loss, as it did with the Kindle, makes Amazon a nasty competitor.” The online retailer has yet to announce its tablet, but BGR exclusively reported that Amazon has two Android-powered models coming down the pipeline, including an entry-level dual-core “Coyote” tablet and an NVIDIA quad-core Kal-El-powered “Hollywood” slate. “If Amazon’s Android-based tablet sells in the millions, Android will suddenly appear much more attractive to developers who have taken a wait-and-see approach,” Epps added. According to a report issued on Friday, Amazon’s success could be driven by its effort to undercut the price of Apple’s iPad by “hundreds” of dollars.

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  • john haw

    I want one, quit the talk, produce,   come on hurry up

    • Anonymous

      .i cant believe this!! me and my sister just got two i-pads for $42.77 each and a $50 amazon card for $9. the stores want to keep this a secret and they dont tell you.
      go here, EgoWìn.com

  • zacamandapio

    If they’re cheap. 
    And on Amazon(.)com
    ;)

  • http://twitter.com/GRZLA Grizzly Atoms

    Analyst here, BGR loves me.

  • Anonymous

    By far the most interesting thing will be if Amazon forks Android and beats Google with it’s own creation. I highly doubt this Amazon tablet is going to come with apps such as Gmail, Gmaps, and the Android Market.

    • http://twitter.com/GRZLA Grizzly Atoms

      It will be EXACTLY like the Nook Color. It will be a highly customized version of Android with applications to purchase things from Amazon such as ebooks, movies, tv shows, etc.

      • Cer

        Probably right. Only difference is that it actually sell.

      • http://twitter.com/GRZLA Grizzly Atoms

        The Nook Color sells insanely well due to the fact that it can be rooted and honeycomb can be installed onto it making it a full blown tablet.

      • Cer

        Come on. “insanely well” because it can be rooted? Don’t insult my intelligence. The average consumer doesn’t even know what it means to root, and doesn’t even know the Nook Color exists.

        EDIT: I take that back. Just googled it and apparently 3M of these have been sold. My apologies. Impressive. If B&N can cell 3M of these, a $250 Amazon tablet would sell wildly well.

      • Anonymous

        ‘you keep using that word… I don’t think it means what you think it means’ – The Princess Bride

        3 million = _insanely_ well? over what…9 months?  350K a month?

        what does 3 million a month then add up to in terms of iPad?

        I guess 3 million a MONTH is ‘inconceivable’ to you ;-)

      • Geokaplan

        @theothergeoff:disqus –And it’s an even smaller subset of those 3M which were rooted and repurposed as general Android tablets. The great majority of Barnes & Noble Nook Color tablets are being used as (wait for it…) Barnes & Noble Nook Color tablets.
        The conceit seen here all too often is that geeks believe the world would act as they do. *Of course* that phone is great, because all you have to do is root it and… except the majority of Android phone users have no interest or understanding about rooting, in the same way that the average owner of a PC has no interest in overclocking his processor. The majority of purchasers simply want to buy something which works the way it is supposed to, without extraordinary measures being taken. Life is far too busy otherwise…

  • Anonymous

    It would be interesting if BGR could produce something else about the Amazon tablet besides “it could do this” or “it could do that”.

    • Cer

      It could scramble my eggs and make my bed. EXCLUSIVE!

  • Fjing28

    there’s no way Amazon can price it below $300 while making profit. Even thou they dont have to pay channel and distribution fee, the material cost alone is at least that much. 

    • Cer

      And….?

    • Anonymous

      Amazon’s been willing to take a loss on the Kindle to make it up later in books.   Amazon can easily make it up on videos, cloud storage, ebooks, apps, and more. 

      Microsoft sold its consoles at a loss and made it up on game sales.

      It’s called a loss leader.   Hardly a new concept.

      • Michael Scrip

        Microsoft gets thousands of dollars for their game development kit… plus license fees from all those $60 games.

        Plus… the XBox has a 5 year life cycle… tablets don’t even come close…

        Amazon gets what… $3 for each book?  30 cents from each $1 app?

        Although similar…. tablets don’t earn that much from content.

      • Geokaplan

        I don’t disagree with you at all.

        Now, if you would, explain to the class why it is any Android tablet sold at a loss would necessarily be locked down and welded to Amazon services, making it a poor candidate to attempt rooting and general usage. Bezos is a smart guy, and I don’t think he’s interested in making a below-cost tablet which can be rooted and repurposed to do something other than make more money for Amazon.

      • Anonymous

        People buy a lot of books.  Amazon sold the Kindle at a loss.  People who read and like the convenience will continue to buy books.  If someone reads a book a week, that’s over $150 – more than enough to offset the difference.

        Bezos might not be interested in that, but it doesn’t mean it can’t happen.  The folks at XDA are a smart bunch.  Locked bootloaders and signed code haven’t stopped them from rooting and creating new loads.  They got CM onto a Nook.  I’m sure BN didn’t want that either but it doesn’t stop that from happening.

        Most people won’t care about rooting and putting a different rom on anyway.  They’ll buy the tablet because it’s cheap and it’ll meet their needs.  It’ll be a great deal for those of us who can get more out of it, and it’ll be a great deal for those that just want it for what it is.

    • Anonymous

      True but Amazon has deep pockets. If Amazon is willing to take a loss on the hardware and if this new tablet actually gains market penetration they could eventually make it all back through platform sales such as books movies shows apps etc.

  • Anonymous

    I’m not sure that Amazon actually does sell the Kindle at a loss. When it was first introduced, it was $389 (if I remember correctly) and then came down over the last four years to its current price of $189 (and only $139 for the wifi version). That’s a pretty big drop, but the heart of the technology hasn’t really changed much, so I’m guessing it doesn’t cost Amazon much to produce one these days. And I think that’s backed up by the fact that many ereaders are priced about the same, even those (kobo, iriver, etc) that don’t have an ebook store to collect extra revenue from. Amazon may make much more money on the ebooks than the readers, but I don’t think they’re selling at a loss.

    Amazon may indeed be willing to sell their next tablet at a loss to gain market share, but if they do it’s because they plan on making sure every user is an Amazon Prime member (either by requiring it, or just by making it so enticing from a content standpoint) and then they’ll know they’ve got another $80/year minimum coming from each user. I think it’s likely that they’ll be tying it in so closely with their Prime services that they’ll make a lot of money from users, but I don’t think they’d require it and I don’t think they’ll need to sell at a loss.

    I think a decent $250 tablet with a rather ordinary multitouch display would do well against the iPad, provided it is backed by Amazon. Heck, even the Nook Color did well and that doesn’t have half as much going for it as an Amazon tablet would. Of course I am still hoping that they’re coming out with some kind of display tech that allows outdoor reading as well as color (a la Pixel Qi) – that would really be a game changer, and might get people to actually ditch their iPad. But I think the odds on that are long, at least this year.

    • Cer

      An Amazon tablet with an e-ink/LCD combo screen is the holy grail. That would just blow everyone out of the water. Probably not in the cards this time around, though. Maybe in Winter 2012.

  • Anonymous

    Well if you want to enjoy a pathetic user experience then you go with the amazon tablet.

    • Cer

      When will you be publishing your full review of the unannounced, unreleased Amazon Tablets?

    • Anonymous

      Give XDA some time with it and that will change.

    • Anonymous

      Wtf man the fucking thing isn’t even out yet and you’re already bashing it without even trying the fucking thing. Do yourself a favor you stupid dip shit and take the crApple cock out of your mouth. Old Jobsy and his buddy Cook don’t give a shit how hard you suck their dicks they only want your money.

      • Geokaplan

        You really are obsessed with that imagery, aren’t you? You must be counting the hours until “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” is officially repealed and you can come out of that barracks closet.

  • davel

    Why would Amazon make 3-5 million things to sell at a loss? They have the Kindle App, why do they need to make a tablet to lose money?

    • Cer

      More people with Kindle app = more people locked into Amazon/Kindle DRM = more $$$ for Amazon.

      Amazon now has a chance to grab a stranglehold on the tablet market by putting out a cheap tablet, thus convincing people who are not in the market for a $500 tablet to buy their tablet. (In contrast to what you’d believe by reading blogs like BGR, most people do not own a tablet yet). They all start using the Kindle app since its the only e-reading app on the Amazon Tablet. They are now tied to Kindle forever, even if their next tablet is not made from Amazon. Game over for iBooks, B&N, etc.

      • Anonymous

        key phrase in this response = ‘cheap tablet’   If people want cheap tablets, they can buy them now.

        I think you want Amazon to sell an ‘inexpensive, highly functional tablet’

        Bottom line, you requre Amazon to get their _ecosystem_ to compete with ITMS (books movies tunes)
        for this to work.  It’s the ecosystem that matters (convenience).

        Also, what is the payback… if it costs most people to make a tablet in the 400 range, and Amazon has to sell at $299 to make a splash in the ‘market’ (you know apple can drop their price to $399), then they have to make $100 in content sales.  That would be what… about 50 book sales at 20% net per book. 

        For most (the people who haven’t bought an iPad)  people, that’s what… about 5 years worth of book purchases?   I don’t think Amazon’s shareholders will like that equation, considering most consumer apps only last 3 years. 

        I don’t think you’re gonna make that up in volume, unless the amazon device is purely a shopping app.

  • Anonymous

    If Amazon can keep the price below $250 they will sell millions of color Kindles. It’s shocking, but examine how successful they have been with the shi–y gray scale crap that is so popular now. I returned my Kindle after just 24 hours of misery. Amazon definitely has the ecosystem to support the Kindle, and yes, the Kindle is a beloved device. A color version would be the shizzle.

    • Cer

      Are you looking for a color e-ink screen or a color LCD? If the latter, you’re clearly not a reader, and not part of the target Kindle market.

  • Cer

    Once again, you did not “exclusively report” anything. When you exclusively report something, it means you were the only one to report it. You were not.

  • Anonymous

    Ya, wifi only and no carrier contracts, then I’ll consider buying, try to leash me and watch me run away…

  • Anonymous

    Analysts are worthless astrologers.

  • http://www.twitter.com/dannydefinit DannyDefinit

    I hope there won’t be supply issues with these tablets, similar to the iPads when launched, or the fire sales of the HP Touchpads. If so, Amazon Prime customers better get some preferential treatment.

  • Anonymous

    “Amazon could sell millions of tablets if they were cheap” says analyst. “Just look at the TouchPad.”

  • Anonymous

    “Amazon could sell millions of tablets if they were cheap” says analyst. “Just look at the TouchPad.”

  • Anonymous

    It could also flop just like every other Android tablet.

  • Ron Lunsford

    Oh please, we all know the Googlrola iPad Xoom running WebiDroid 6.5 will be out by the time the Amazon tablet hits… Let’s face it… Today’s tablets are yesterday’s news already…

  • http://twitter.com/gnomehole The Gnome

    Because Forrester has been sooooo right about their tablet predictions.

    I’d call it the kiss of death for the cheap Amazon product.   Sad.

  • Booboolala2000

    Easily is an understatement. More like more than probably. With all those kindle people out there. And the pricing structure rumors. Even at 199 and 399 they would fly off the shelves. Full web browser and Google goodies. Seems like a no brainstorm to me. Especially the Hollywood. Quad core! Merry Christmas Apple! Love, Amazon.

    Would truly be great to see Amazon prime streaming on these.

  • Brian

    Finally, a competitor that “gets it.” I’ve been saying for years that Android tablet makers have to price their products well below the iPad to have a shot. Why? Because currently the iPad is THE tablet standard. When consumers walk into a store looking for a tablet, chances are they’re already thinking iPad. So far, there hasn’t been a compelling reason for them to think otherwise.

    If this report is true, I predict the Amazon tablet will take off.

  • Michale11111

    Easily? Let’s see.

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