Apple's iPad will still dominate tablet market after a decade, Needham says

By on Aug 8, 2011 at 12:15 PM
Tablets August 8, 2011

Apple’s popular iPad line will still dominate the consumer tablet market a full decade after its initial launch, according to one analyst. In a new report, Needham analyst Charlie Wolf sees the iPad’s share of consumer tablet shipments declining gradually over the next nine years to 60% in 2020. 60%, of course, is still an overwhelming share of the market. Future tablets are more likely to steal market share from each other rather than from the iPad, the analyst explains, noting that competitive offerings to date have been greeted by consumers with “a yawn and lackluster sales.” Wolf sees iPad shipments reaching 35.61 million units in 2011, up 137.4% from last year and representing 85% of all tablets shipped. In 2012, iPad shipments will grow to 54.3 million units according to Wolf’s model, and shipments will hit 72.66 million units in 2013. The analyst sees iPad shipments reaching nearly 140 million units in 2020, representing 60% of all tablets shipped that year and accounting for $53 billion in revenue and $16 billion in profit despite an average selling price that will have dropped to $377 from $630 in 2010. Wolf’s 10-year iPad projections follow below.

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79 Comments

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  • n00btastic

    LOL.  I absolutely love it.  Predicting 10 years from now?  Seriously?  That’s the most insipid report I’ve read in a long time.  Did anyone ask that guy what temperature it will in zip code 23488 on Aug 20, 2190?

  • Epgomez

    Before iphone versus android same arguments. Now tablets.

  • Anonymous

    In ten years the tablet form factor may no longer exist as we know it. Is this analyst insane???? The tech world is churned constantly! Think about it, in about 2 years consumers went from scoffing at a software keyboard to demanding it…. Tech lifecycle is just far too short for this to be accurate

  • zviera

    There won’t be any jobs or apple in 10 years. To many patent infringements.

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IZNTX36YNR3CIMONXSH7POM2R4 Deana Pennington

      I just paid $24,97 for an iPad2 and my girlfriend loves her Panasonic Lumix GF 1 Camera that we got for $37,74 there arriving tomorrow by UPS. I will never pay such expensive retail prices in stores again. Especially when I also sold a 40 inch LED TV to my boss for $675 which only cost me $71,32 to buy. Here is the website we use to get it all from, MetaCent.com

  • Anonymous

    This is nothing short of hilarious. We have here a dumbass analyst reporting the future! You don’t even know if tablets exist in 10 years! Apple may not even exist in 10 years. But kudos to you for getting hired on the Apple BGR team, because its the only team they have.

  • http://twitter.com/HireMeAccenture HireMeAccenture.com

    That’s a bold prediction!  It’s hard to sustain that type of dominance in a world driven by technological innovation.

    Help Me Get A Job Please
    www[dot]hiremeaccenture[dot]com

    Leave A Comment

  • Doggie

    Oh, I see Zach has failed to publish his middle name in this polished turd of a story. Cunt. How forgetful. BGR, at least read some of the apple pr shite they feed you before publishing it.

  • Drew

    Wow, that’s a bold ass statement, son…!! Tell us some more Nostradamus… Where do you find these fucking wizards BG??

  • Anonymous

    This guy is a crackhead. To say something like this is asseinine!!!!!!!!!

  • Anonymous

    Stop posting nonsense stories like this. THEY HAVE NO WAY OF KNOWING. 10 years ago they would’ve said the SAME thing about the smartphone market and BlackBerry. You never know what’s going to come out, or what technology somebody is going to make. And you guys on this blog know this already. Stop trying to start fights and get more ad revenue. You guys seriously fucking suck ass.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/VCBEBTYM2XLKT7WBH4OWJ5QUZ4 commonsenseplease

    This is an article from the Onion.

  • http://twitter.com/zfny zf

    Needham is  Needless guy

  • Lee Robertson

    That is bullshit…. Needham is saying that in the next ten years there will be no technological advancements. Laptops were shit ten years ago, look at them now. Needham has no idea what it will be like in 2020

  • Anonymous

    Have to admit that the iPad really is innovativem, and deliver an experience that a mass market enjoys and appreciates.
    Just like my iPad, watching movies, check emails, surfing, reading, playing games, and seems can developing  my nephew’s intelligence!
    I totally believe it can be the winner for the next Decade!

  • Anonymous

    We already know that.

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