Apple's reign will soon come to an end, EA founder says

Business

It seems like Apple can do no wrong these days, but according to Electronic Arts founder Trip Hawkins, Apple is headed toward a decline. It goes without saying that Apple will not be able to maintain its dominance forever — every company that rises will eventually fall — but Hawkins sees Apple’s decline as beginning relatively soon. “The thing is, it may take another year or two before it starts to decline, but it has to – everything does,” Hawkins told IndustryGamers in an interview. “Everything revolves so much around Steve, and no matter how good his lieutenants are, they’re not Steve. None of us is going to live forever, though I hope he lives for a really long time.” Hawkins went on to note that games made by Digital Chocolate, the mobile game lab he left EA to launch, will “always be in the App Store,” though he says it would be great if Apple were more open. “I think it would be an incredibly positive thing for the industry if Apple decided to support all of the web standards, because then Apple could be the best about everything. Right now they make a conscious choice. They want you to be in the App Store rather than the browser, so they cripple the browser,” Hawkins griped, though he noted that the closed model hasn’t had a negative impact on Apple’s iOS business at this point.

[Via The Loop]

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136 Comments
  • Apogee

    When a company trades innovation for litigation you can bet the end is near.

  • Anonymous

    lol, no way dude, it will never happen, not in this lifetime.

    http://www.privacy-tools.no.tc

  • austin kottke

    The basic problem is that EA has to pay millions of dollars to deploy to multiple platforms. This creates a huge financial concern and apple are just being dicks because if they allowed flash, then you could actually develop awesome games without having to resort to some antiquated language like javascript in the browser. Or let alone Objective-C which is just painful.

    If Apple gives in then we might start seeing a little harmony on the developer side and attitude towards Steve Jobs.

  • Shanghai Dan

    It’s already happening, it’s just not yet fully obvious to most…

    Apple makes half their revenue – HALF – from sale of the iPhone.  Those same sales account for nearly 60% of their profit.  Apple IS the iPhone, the iPhone IS Apple.  At this point, they are a single-product company.

    It is true that iPhone sales are still increasing quarter-after-quarter; however, their marketshare is sliding.  How can both be true?  The market at a whole is growing faster than Apple’s slide of marketshare.  However, this cannot continue indefinitely.  In fact, we’re already seeing signs that the US and EU markets are reaching saturation, with smartphone growth slowing down on the whole.
    Where is the market still growing?  Asia.  In particular, the far East – SE Asia and China in particular.  Those two places have over 2 BILLION potential consumers, and the smartphone market has barely been cracked.

    And it’s a market dominated by sub-$300 phones (off contract) – a market Apple has no experience working in, or even targeting.

    Add in India – which is still early in the smartphone growth curve – and we’re talking nearly 3.5 billion consumers.  Most of whom have never had a home phone – but most have a cell phone.

    As growth slows in Apple’s “home markets” of North America and the EU, their number of iPhones sold each quarter will begin to slip, and when the first quarter comes out where they did not increase the number of units sold, you’ll see their stock tumble 20% the following quarter – and it will feed viciously on itself.

    And you’ll see companies like Samsung, Nokia, and HTC – who all have massive penetration and presence in the China/India/SE Asian market – grow their number of phones and accumulate more marketshare.  Pushing Apple down to the #4 or #5 (if ZTE continues its roll, which – thanks to its tight partnering with China Mobile – is a good bet) which will only hasten the thing.

    Two more years, tops, before they really begin a decade-long slide.  Much like happened after 1991-1992 when Apple peaked with the Mac.

  • Guessed

    Someone needs to tell GE this whole decline thing…they’ve been doing it wrong this past century

  • Mark

    Apple has between 5 and 7 more years on top…    Until then, their platform is going to continue to be quite lucrative.

    I anticipate that Android will not be what finally topples Apple.  I expect it will be something that nobody has thought of yet.

  • Anonymous

    I welcome the decline because i feel it will force them to open up, a hard less for them

  • Snowzerko

    Note that Trip left EA to found 3DO, not Digital Chocolate. He started Digital Chocolate after 3DO failed.

    • Snowzerko

      And really he didn’t so much “leave” EA as he was “asked to not let the door hit him on the ass on his way out”

  • Imkman

    Fuck you Trip Hawkins

    And to you asshole who want steve to die, you’d have a whole other tune if he had excepted the offer given to him to run google years back….

    And I am guess you idiots are on android, not because android in the devil, but because if your on rim or 7 you truly need not have an oppinoin on anything.

    Ps love both google and apple

    Current phone. Nexus one
    Tablet. Ipad2
    Computer. Sony
    Mac. Sandy bridge air

    I just give props where they are do and I too hated apple for years and it’s time to hand it to them. iPhone 4 is good (it can even cut and paste) and I’ll most likely get the 5 because let’s face it. Icloud will run smoothly with apple. Google I doubt as smooth but with more options most likely.

    Anyways getting side tracked. Just sick of one way thinking. Apple is doing really well now and for the forseeable future.

    Nice prediction Nostradamus, everything come to an end or decline eventually. Except of course companies founded on tesla’s work.

  • http://claz.org Classifieds

    There is actually a robust link in the thinking of Hawkins. Apple is now again on the crest of a wave, but competitors are coming. Recession will come necessarily, the only question is when. Jobs refusal to support all of the web standards can only accelerate the time of recession. So I thought a week ago.

    But! Now I think that Apple has prepared a new springboard for growth based on Apple OSx. Under
    this project, you can go all the concessions to try to please everybody. Then, in fact, all forces will leave at dealing with old problems that accumulated in the industry, rather than on finding new ways to break through. Perhaps that’s  why Apple so successful – they are trying to set the tone, doesn’t play under someone else’s tune. In other words, it is easier to build a new one (keeping in mind the error precursors) rather than rebuild the old (ie, correct old mistakes of others). The question is has the Apple enough innovative ideas for success in this direction.
    Time will tell

  • http://twitter.com/Skiking226 Skiking226

    He’s a idiot, flashback 1997 apple stock at $12, prediction, Apple will be out of business by the millennium, Fast forward, Apple stock tops $400, 200 million iOS devices sold, it will be 400 million by end of 2012, stock will double in price, my prediction 

  • http://profiles.google.com/axualgroup J A

    So, kind of like IBM then … you know, the big failure of IBM … oh wait, they’re doing very well.

    Shuttle to Neptune leaving soon.

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