IMS: Annual smartphone sales to reach 1 billion units by 2016; Apple, Samsung winners so far

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More than 420 million smartphones will be sold around the world in 2011, accounting for 28% of total cell phone sales according to market research firm IMS Research. The firm sees the recent surge of more affordable smartphones as playing a major role in the continued growth of the market, and IMS analysts estimate that global smartphone sales will reach 1 billion devices by 2016 thanks to entry-level smart handsets. In recent months however, IMS’ data shows that Apple has made some of the largest gains in the space, accounting for 19% of global smartphone sales in the first quarter of 2011 compared to 16% in the same quarter last year. Of course Apple’s share continued to climb in the second quarter as well, as the company reported industry-leading sales of 20.4 million smartphones. The only company that made more impressive unit sales gains year-over-year in the first quarter was Samsung according to IMS; the South Korea-based vendor accounted for 13% of smartphones sold in the first quarter compared to just 3% in the same quarter in 2010. The biggest losers in the first quarter were Nokia, which slid from a 40% share in the first quarter last year to 24% in Q1 2010, and RIM, which dropped from 20% to 15% over the same period. The firm’s full press release follows below.

Global Smartphones Sales Will Top 420 Million Devices in 2011, Taking 28 Percent of all Handsets, According to IMS Research

Apple and Samsung see Strongest Growth as Nokia Fades

Austin, TX, July 27, 2011 – Sales of smartphones will exceed 420 million devices in 2011, accounting for nearly 28 percent of the entire global handset market, according to IMS Research, the leading independent provider of market research and consultancy to the global electronics industry. With the introduction of more affordable “entry-level” smartphones, IMS Research predicts that annual sales will surpass one billion devices by the end of 2016, accounting for one of every two mobile handsets sold.

“But despite the higher margins for smartphones, and the seemingly insatiable consumer appetite for converged devices, it is clear that not all OEMS are equally positioned to capitalize on this market trend,” says Josh Builta, analyst in IMS’ Mobile Technologies Group. “For instance, LG, despite being the third largest OEM in the world, has offered a fairly limited smartphone portfolio in recent years, a factor that resulted in the company reaching less than a three percent share of the total smartphone market in 2010.”

At the same time Nokia saw its portion of smartphone market decline so dramatically that in early 2011 the company dropped the Symbian platform in favor of Microsoft’s Windows Phone OS. In 2Q 2011, Nokia reported smartphone sales fell to 16.7 million, down 34 percent from the same period in 2010.

“Clearly one of the key dynamics of the mobile handset competitive environment in recent years has been the inability of many traditional market leaders to recognize and adjust to the growing smartphone tier,” adds Builta, “The reasons for these failures vary and include everything from poorly designed and manufactured devices, unsatisfactory user interfaces, and portfolios that don’t offer products with a differentiating feature. These lapses have created opportunities for newer entrants to the market, which they have aggressively pursued.”

In recent years, no company has flourished in this environment as much as Apple. Apple’s 2Q 2011 results in which it reported record sales of more than 20 million iPhones indicates it can be expected to remain an influential presence in the market despite the increased competition.

However, Apple is not alone in its success. Of the traditional handset manufacturers, Samsung has demonstrated the best results in recent years. Capitalizing on its diverse portfolio – which includes devices using the company’s own bada operating system along with Android and Windows Mobile – as well as its highly popular Galaxy series, Samsung smartphone market share increased from about three percent in 1Q 2010 to over 13 percent in 1Q 2011. At the same time smaller, dedicated smartphone vendors such as HTC have seen their position rise dramatically.

According to Builta, “These companies are well positioned to benefit from the projected growth of the smartphone market in the future. Though the other OEMs are stepping up their efforts in the space, companies such as Apple, HTC and Samsung have a considerable amount of momentum. Catching them will not be an easy task.”

IMS Research examines and tracks quarterly handset and smartphone market shares in its Mobile Handset Market Intelligence Service & Database. A valuable tool for companies requiring 24/7 access to the most up-to-date information on the mobile market, this service also provides up-to-date information on cellular subscribers, handset shipments, and mobile handset feature penetration. Provided with the database access is the Quarterly Market report, which offers subscribers additional insight and analysis on recent developments in the mobile handset market.

22 Comments
  • Anonymous

    Apple is on pace to sell just about 20% of the 420 million this year. With their YOY growth concerning the iphone since it’s inception this is what those numbers will look like in 2016:

    2007 7 million iPhones sold
    2008 14 million iPhones sold
    2009 24 million iPhone sold 
    2010 46 million iphones sold
    2011 is tracking for 80-85 million iPhones sold

    Apple has been averaging almost 100% unit growth for iPhone YOY since it’s launch. So with that growth it would seem that Apple is able to increases component purchases, increase manufacturing and increase distribution. Surely the next five years they won’t show that same sort of growth, right? Because if they did here is what the next 5 years looks like.

    2012 160 million iPhones
    2013 310 million iPhones
    2014 590 million iPhones
    2015.1.7 billion iPhones
    2016 3.3 billion iPhones.

    That clearly isn’t going to happen though. So let us just go with 50% increase YOY:

    2012 122 million iPhones
    2013 183 million iPhones
    2014 274 million iPhones
    2015 411 million iPhones
    2016 617 million iPhones

    Apple owns 20% of the Smart Phone market today and they earn 55% of all the profits. According to all available statistics (which are basically meaningless) 61.7% of all Smart Phones shipped in 2016 will be made by Apple.

    • Anonymous

      Ridiculous.  I can’t believe you wasted so much time putting that together.

      • Anonymous

        The point was to show how ridiculous “statistics” are. 

        That took two minutes.

      • Anonymous

        Two minutes wasted

      • Anonymous

        I do understand business.  Your note here proves you do not, nor do you demonstrate any understanding of history.  What is amazing is that you even cite Nokia.  The fall of Nokia and RIM should tell you that closed, top down, proprietary models ultimately fail.  It’s silly to merely extrapolate past Apple sales trends five years into the future.  This is no different than what Nokia and RIM supporters did in the past to rationalize why their platforms would remain dominant.  How did that work out for them?  In short, Apple today is Nokia 5 years ago, RIM 2 years ago.

        The real point Apple supporters continue to miss is that they’re not just competing with Samsung, HTC and Motorola for share of the smart phone market.  They are competing with EVERY other maker of consumers electronics (Nokia and RIM excepted).  All of these makers have a common, open OS, Android.  Eventually that OS, for better or worse, will win the battle for supremacy as, apart from starting their own OS from scratch, the consumer electronics companies have no where else to go.  This is why Android went from less than 2% three years ago to 38% (and growing) today.

        We have seen all of this before with Mac OS versus Windows, Betamax versus VCR.  We know who wins and we know why.  

      • Anonymous

        Nokia is going with Windows, and WebOS will also get out there that won’t be using Android of course.  Android isn’t all that.  Point being Apple isn’t loosing Market share, it’s still gaining while others ARE loosing market share.  Put all the Android Manufactures together and sure it’s beating iOS.  SO???  That really doesn’t effect Apple much.  Why do they  need to be #1???   Apple is making money hand over fist.  No Single Android Company is #1.   Samsung is getting up closer to Apple, still has a way to go.  Everyone else isn’t even in the race.  I have problems with Apple.  A little to closed and strict with rules for Apps.  There’s Positives to having a Closed Hardware/Software OS Platform also.   I’m not a fan of some of the things Apple does, but really, I’m not a fan of some of the things Google does or Nokia and every other company out there.  None of them are perfect.   There is no RIGHT way of doing things either.  I don’t hate Apple, or Google, or Nokia or any of them.  They are all a Business and in it to make money.

        All these choices, iOS, WM7, Android, WebOS and others gives everyone a choice and makes them ALL better in the end.  What sticks around, what may come in the future, who knows.  Does it matter?!?!
          

      • Oakenfold1978

        really888 – The trouble with your analogy is that there is a cost attached to installing Windows on a PC usually borne by the manufacturer.  Android is free and at present producing no meaningful revenue for Google.

        While Google’s Android will in fact “win” in terms of sheer numbers, they have yet to show how they can produce a meaningful return for shareholders of Google.

      • Anonymous

        And your time in responding is?

      • Anonymous

        Listen, its not the “statistics” that are meaningless, it is your analysis.  See, your analysis assumes competitors are not growing faster than Apple.  Of course, with the exception of RIM, Motorola and “others”, they are.  Given this, it becomes increasing less possible for Apple to increase market share.

        What you (and others) miss as you marvel at the growth rate of iPhone is the growth rate of smart phones in general.  If you spent two more minutes looking at the statistics what you would quickly determine is that Apple iPhone is merely keeping pace with that rate of growth.  

      • Anonymous

        @really8888:disqus I agree with you.  I think the iPhone’s on its way out.  Apple won’t sell more than 0.1% of all phones because the growth of Google and Android will make it impossible to sell more.  Android WILL be 100% of the market, no ifs, whens or buts.  

      • Anonymous

        Again to your reply below:

        It’s the same thing that everyone has been missing for five years. If Apple is growing (and they have been) it really doesn’t matter what any other company or platform is doing. Are other vendors going to sell more products? Absolutely. My point was that this 2016 number was based on a growth trend. That growth trend doesn’t work because Apple’s growth trend proves it won’t work. Factor in everyone else’s growth and you would have 16 Billion Smart Phones sold in 2016.

        It’s okay that you don’t understand business. The collapse of Nokia taught you nothing but don’t worry we all heard for two or three years how the iPhone was of no threat to Nokia’s business.

      • Anonymous

        Android is NOT going to take 100% of the market.  What are you smoking!  Iphones will be around for years to come.  Android is growing, but so what!  Android has a lot of problem, Few patents being sued by many company’s for copying all kinds of things.  Android won’t continue to be FREE.  That means the cost could be as much as say WM7!  That might be the smarter move to make in the end.  Go with Windows.  I have zero plans to switch to Android.  Maybe WM7 or 8 for me in the future on a Nokia phone.   Apple has been doing GREAT on closed Systems on their MAC’s and IPOD’s.   You don’t need to be #1.  Being OPEN has it’s issues also.   Personally, I don’t know anyone with a Android phone.  It’s either iphones, or dumb phones.   

        If it’s just 100% Android, who’s Google going to copy from?   That’s just completely silly.

      • They call me Sir

        exactly, what a douche!

  • Anonymous

    Apple will rule the world.  true story™©®

    • Anonymous

      Will? 

    • They call me Sir

      they’ve had plenty of time to “rule the world,” but have yet to accomplish that. according to the graph, nokia’s kicking everyone’s ass. 

      • Anonymous

        Maybe u should take a graph reading course. Nokia has gone from 40% to 24% in 1 year. If u call losing 16% market share kicking ass then I’d hate to see what u call a bad year.  true story™©®

      • Anonymous

        Actually they lost 40% market share, 16 percentage points.

  • Anonymous

    I just paid $22.87 for an iPad2-64GB and my girlfriend loves her Panasonic Lumix GF 1 Camera that we got for $38.76 there arriving tomorrow by UPS. I will never pay such expensive retail prices in stores again. Especially when I also sold a 40 inch LED TV to my boss for $675 which only cost me $62.81 to buy. Here is the website we use to get it all from, GrabPenny.com

  • Anonymous

    Thats amazing. I cant wait for the iPhone5 myself. Thats gonna be too cool I think.

    http://www.web-privacy.au.tc

    • Anonymous

      Well since I’m stuck with my Iphone4 until July of Next year, after my 2 years are up, Maybe Iphone6 for me or WM8!  I have no interest is Android.   Don’t want to turn into a Fandroid who things Android is going to  end up with 100% of the market place.  HAHAHAHA.  Hell there goes Competition.   Pretty DUMB.  Who would Google copy from?

      Until the Iphone5 or iphone4s, or whatever Apple says it is and actually tells what capabilities it has, I’ll wait to judge how much better it is over the iphone4 and how it compares to Android.  They both will keep passing each other up hardware and OS wise.  If you like Android get THAT, if you like iOS, get THAT.  That’s Choice and makes everything better for everyone.

  • Racer416

    …and RIM still see their target market as IT depts…looking at Nokia’s decline, Microsoft made a deal with the wrong company.

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