Windows Phone will beat Android in 2013, analyst explains

By on May 10, 2011 at 4:00 PM
mobile May 10, 2011

Late last week, BGR wrote about a recent report suggesting Microsoft’s share of the global smartphone market would overtake Google’s share in 2015, and Windows Phone would become the best-selling smartphone platform in the world at that point. On Tuesday, the Pyramid Research analyst responsible for the report published a follow up explaining that her findings were misinterpreted. Pyramid’s Senior Analyst Stela Bokun explains that Windows Phone is poised to overtake Android’s massive market share much earlier than that — as soon as 2013, in fact. Beginning this year, Bokun sees Windows Phone popularity exploding even faster than Android adoption has since its introduction in 2008. The analyst attributes the coming Windows Phone boom to Microsoft’s partnership with Nokia; the Finnish cell phone giant is set to bring the end user cost of Windows Phones down, thus accelerating adoption dramatically. Bokun also notes that other manufacturers will continue to support Windows Phone, which will help make the devices widely accessible. “With the change in the price of WP devices, and the multivendor strategic approach of Microsoft, the main advantage of Android – scale – may be removed,” she wrote on Pyramid Research’s blog on Tuesday. It certainly seems like a long shot, but Pyramid Research forecasts smartphone sales individually in 51 separate markets, and the firm stands by its findings. We also shouldn’t forget that it only took Google 2.5 years to get its Android OS where it is today, so it’s quite clear that anything can happen.

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125 Comments

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  • Anonymous

    I want what they’re smoking.

  • Attila S

    Until 2013 I will replace my phone 3 times

    • Usman Ahmed

      you will do best for Mobile Companies, not for your own self :)

  • Anonymous

    This “analyst” must be the dumbest I’ve ever seen! Or she has some “incentive” from MS to produce this kind of garbage. This is just fantasy land. Both MS and Nokia are sinking.

    • Usman Ahmed

      Dumbes you ever seen? wish you could see the mirror too, hehe.

      • Anonymous

        Learn to write in proper English before you post, idiot!

  • Anonymous

    Yeah, and I’m going to be the next president in 2012

    • Usman Ahmed

      You lack will and belief :) that’s the difference :)

  • http://twitter.com/mbcls ask me

    windows phones with those live tiles just dont interested me! on android, i can change “live wallpaper” anytime when i get bored with current one!

    • Usman Ahmed

      You consider your self entire market? interesting :)

  • vlkm

    Have used Iphone and Andrew for some long time. Now using WP7 and you know what – have filling that will never go back to Andrew or Iphone. WP7 is very far from finishing, but MS with Nokia will do the job together well. Totally different interface of WP7 make you filling your device tottaly different way – it is like freedom of move. Lack of application will be fixed sooner or later. To survive old outdated interface of Andrew and Iphone should be changed somehow.

  • Anonymous

    so are they saying that BBOS and IOS are going to be the underdogs and windows and android phones will rule?

    • Usman Ahmed

      i think iOS needs to copy a lot from the likes of Andoid and WP7 to survive that long, they done just that in iOS5 which is good for them and fanboys.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000722296108 Herman Guerra

    LOL!

  • Anonymous

    Obviously these researchers have underestimated other phone companies. Nokia is losing market share big time and Samsung is shipping it’s most phones ever. HTC is continuing to grow… This research is Fail!

  • Anonymous

    FANalyst. Nough said.

  • Anonymous

    I don’t understand why it matters? I will still want my iPhone because I like it. Not because it may be projected as the top selling platform. I’m sure the top selling cars are economy cars like the Ford Focus, Toyota Corolla, or Honda Accord, but it doesn’t make them the best.

    • Usman Ahmed

      Yes same way, few are happy with Symbian and others with Andoids

  • Anonymous

    I would take the analyst take on this rather than believe any of the commenters here. At least the analyst can back their prediction with scientific data. And people, these are just predictions… no needs to be bash MS. This may or may NOT happen at all.

  • http://twitter.com/jj_hh1 J Hamburg

    BGR shouldnt post an estimate statistic if it contains PRESENT numbers that are wrong. Come on guys you can do better than those so-called analysts! Based on the graph above Win7 is supposed to have a market share of almost 20% today! Are you kiddin me??

  • jwd45244

    The problem with this prediction is there is no explanation of the market forces that will cause WP7 phone share to go from around 10% now to nearly 30% in 2012. Unless Nokia is going to release a WP7 phone well under $100 it is unclear how they could get this much share. If they do release a WP7 phone under that price point, they could get 30% but Nokia would be losing money. This would not be the first time that Microsoft has engaged in a “loss leader” strategy. The XBOX is a perfect example. Sell the box for less than cost and then own the customer with other things like apps.

  • Anonymous

    i can see the sense of security that those who claim that android will dominate should be feeling. it’s a common fallacy to think that just because something happened yesterday, it will also happen today. android won yesterday, it will also win in 2013-2015 and windows lost share yesterday, so doom guaranteed. paying attention to organizational resources, bargaining power and considering a wider time horizon than one week before and one week after is unnecessary when you think like that. we have become so lazy in our thinking that if somebody says “one who loses today may actually win in the future”, it becomes a heretic statement. it’s really sad.

    what’s worse is that i can already see how same people are likely to claim that Nokia is revived and good to fight for its throne when it actually starts pushing Windows smartphones. Just to give you an idea: Nokia sells almost as many smartphones in one quarter as Windows sells in one year. If you were to see a tripling of sales for Windows phones in only one quarter, which may very well happen in 2012, then dear android of today would be oh so threatened by the powerful alliance of Nokia and Windows.

    this is not to say that the analyst is right. she may just as well be proven wrong as android just broke the $100 price barrier in Kenya. it may indeed spread faster than she expects. windows also needs a good revision of its app store and all. but then again, if you think that Nokia and Windows are incapable of producing a sub-$150 smartphone, you are completely misguided about the potential scales of these companies. let’s not lose the point: the point is there are strong reasons to believe that, in the case of windows vs. android arguments, expecting that the trend of yesterday will continue into the future is quite fallacious.

    perhaps the future of smartphone markets will be an outcome of a struggle between those who live with such fallacies and herd-like behavior yet have the power of self-fulfilling prophecies on their side and those who try to assess the actual capabilities of organizations. or perhaps it will simply be determined by who has a good $8.5bn in resources to be able to buy a giant like Skype and aligns its resources with a mobile phone manufacturer who still happens to sell more smartphones than any other.

    • _Nine_

      I think people underestimate the brand power that Nokia has in Europe. People here are talking about familiarity with Symbian driving some of Nokia’s user base to Android, but I don’t think Symbian and Nokia’s brand loyalty are one and the same. Nokia is an iconic tech brand in Europe and I think many Europeans will buy Nokia for that reason as well as a Euro-centric combination of features and price points. To a lesser extent, the same goes for Sony Ericsson. Ever seen anyone in the U.S. with a recent Ericsson phone? Neither have I. But you will see them in Europe. I think much of the analysts predictions stem from rapid European adoption of Nokia’s WP7 phones, giving the platform a huge growth surge.

      What will be interesting to see is whether the MS+Nokia alliance will scare off other OEMs. But, I still think it was the right move for MS. The other OEMs had their chance, but you snooze you loose. Plus, I think MS didn’t want WP7 devices playing second fiddle to OEM’s Android offerings, of which a new device seems to be announced every other week.

      But, Android’s fragmentation and Google’s own announcements might have some of those OEMs wishing they didn’t dismiss MS so readily. Even Moto, after publicly putting itself 100% in the Google camp seems to be rethinking that strategy. And with Google holding the Honeycomb source close to its vest and announcing it wants to slow fragmentation by guaranteeing delivery of updates to phones 18 months old or less, it seems that Google is moving towards “vanilla-izing” the platform to some extent. This will make differentiation even harder for Android OEMs and reduce the appeal of the platform.

      • Anonymous

        i think you make very good points both on Nokia as a brand and the evolution of alliances and fragmentation. indeed, in my opinion, any conclusion that is driven by directly comparing Windows and Android shares is telling more about a projection of how much Nokia’s market share may fall until 2012 rather than whether windows or android will win. if you believe “a lot”, android wins. if not, windows wins.

        i also think you are right on target by considering the nature of emerging alliances. most simply, if everybody is using Google, handset vendors are pretty much locking in their major sources of differentiation and moving to commoditization.

        good to see an actual argument among the myriad of crack jokes
        …

      • _Nine_

        Likewise! While analysts often merely state the obvious, in this case they’ve bucked that trend by making a prediction in spite of current market share trajectories. But, one obvious problem with a lot of analyses is the implied assumption that the data holds only if everything else remains as-is. For example, Google could announce a partnership or acquisition that makes this analysis moot.

        People can get caught up in the present and read too much into the existing landscape when projecting about the future. One commenter stated that he will replace his phone 3 times before 2013, obviously suggesting that he will have more than one phone within the typical 2-year contract period (at least in the U.S.). The cell phone market is volatile and although app ecosystems will influence people’s platform choices, their app investment likely will not tie them to a platform since, individually, most consumers don’t spend a significant amount of money on apps. The platform “stickiness” that exists in the PC market just doesn’t exist to the same extent with phones, especially if most popular apps are available across multiple platforms.

        As the Motorola Razr reminds us, the hot phone one day can be obsolete the next. Granted, the analogy doesn’t translate 100% as I do think the app ecosystem–and not the device per se–can create some platform stickiness. However, while it seems unfathomable to the blogosphere and fandroids here, it is not unfathomable to me that, within a couple years, fragmentation could burst Android’s bubble, causing it to cede its current leadership position to the likes of Apple, MS+Nokia, and RIM who offer a more integrated and consistent user experience. I’m not saying that will happen, but I haven’t found Android users to be as “passionate” about their devices or the platform, suggesting that platform loyalty remains tenuous.

    • Jimbo

      You’re using Kenya as an example? Fine.

      I’m no big Symbian fan at all, but what you could say about that OS was that a poor family in Africa didn’t need to own a PC to buy a Nokia Symbian phone. It could exist and be used independently of a PC.

      In contrast, Windows Phone is similar to iOS in that both require frequent syncing with proprietary software, for WP the Zune software, which also requires a modern high end PC to run well on.

      So yeah, all those emerging market and third world countries who use Nokia Symbian phones aren’t the natural buyers of Nokia Windows Phone….phones, even if they price the phones at $100-$150. I mean, unless they’re giving out free PCs and data packages to non-Western world customers.

      Egads man, Windows Phone’s required syncing software isn’t even *available* outside of the U.S., the UK and a handful of other nations, much less anybody else.

      End result: these analysts are dreaming if they think the Windows Phone OS will be anything other than the fourth mobile platform after Android, iOS and Blackberry.

      • Anonymous

        i used Kenya as an example that supports Android’s growth, not that of Nokia and/or Windows and my point was to say that the analyst can indeed be proven wrong. i hope you noticed that. i think Huawei Ideos released there is a bigger long-term threat to Nokia and Windows than anything else i’ve seen so far. that being said, i would urge to think twice about the speed with which Android can launch in Africa because android market is still not available in those countries, except for a couple of exceptions. we’re already midway into 2011. Nokia+MS will come very soon.

        i think you make a solid point about dependence to PCs. i just cannot imagine Nokia expecting that for every smartphone it plans to sell, there should be a PC. this would be a suicide, one that should be far too obvious to Nokia given where they’re already strong. if Nokia endorses the high-end path, this projection will be proven very wrong; if they go their traditional path of exploiting economies of scale, then we will see no such dependence.

        three years is a long-time for anything to happen. maybe those guys in Shanzhai will take over everybody with their MTK platforms and Hello Kitty SciPhones.

  • http://profiles.google.com/mordikar.nykae Justin Hart

    your analyst needs to put down the crack pipe ….

  • http://profiles.google.com/uzunoff80 Ivaylo Ouzounov

    Android attracted adoption by offering an alternative to the iPhone, open platform and some what a lot of apps.

    What does the Microsoft phone has to offer…. cheap phones, with no community support and pretty weak app store.

    So these researches base their whole hypothesis on the fact that Microsoft signed with Nokia….? Really?

    If Nokia does not adopt the approach of HTC (different phones with different OSes) they will be in the same position where Motorola was before they released the Droid. On the verge of bankrupt.

    Not because of Android, but because of a stand offish behavior and failure to adapt.

    So go ahead Nokia, put all your eggs in the Windows Phone basket and hope that Pyramid researchers are correct.

    • Anonymous

       So. Windows phone will attract adoption by offering an alternative to IOS and Android. Remember Android started out as nothing too and look how fast it grew. 

      Also Nokia is still the #1 smartphone manufacturer in the world. That will definitely help WP7 grow. 

  • droidINdo

    Ngarep nih analisisnya..

  • Ntss2000

    This is crazy, how did she get to that conclusion? Did she took into account the fact that app development on Windows is nowhere close to android and iOS??

  • http://www.facebook.com/asptheone Abraham Soto

    The Droid dumb Zombi army launch a preventive Attack. Windows Phone first victim will be Rim, next IOS and then the precius Zombi Dumbs of the Android Army are going to Fall!!!

  • Bbadwolf

    I want what ever flavor psychedelic punch he is having. must be served in rose colored glasses too.

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