iPad 2 sales to balloon 200% this quarter according to analyst

Asymco’s Horace Dediu has a long history of pegging Apple earnings, and on Monday morning the analyst issued his revenue and EPS estimates for Apple’s third fiscal quarter of 2011. Dediu expects Apple to outpace its guidance, as usual, which the company set at 47% revenue growth and 43% EPS growth last week. Based on significant year-over-year growth projected in every key segment other than its iPod business, Dediu expects revenue growth of 65% to $25.8 billion and EPS growth of 72% to $6.02. Regarding product lines, the analyst sees Apple’s third-quarter breaking down as follows:

  • iPhone units: 14.7 million (75%)
  • Macs: 4.3 million (25%)
  • iPads: 9.8 million (200%)
  • iPods: 10.1 million (-15%)
  • Music (incl. app) rev. growth: 25%
  • Peripherals rev. growth: 25%
  • Software rev. growth: 25%

Apple sold just 4.69 million iPads last quarter, falling short of analyst estimates ranging from 6 to 8 million. It is widely believed that the low sales were due to supply constraints, and Dediu believes that Apple will iron out these issues. The iPad 2 will also launch in several new countries this quarter, and coupled with supply that might finally come closer to meeting demand, Dediu sees third-quarter iPad sales ballooning 200% year-over-year to 9.8 million units.

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