Apple's Q2 iPad 2 sales may fall short of estimates

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Analyst Horace Dediu on Tuesday uncovered figures Apple provided in a recent legal complaint against Samsung that may give us a preview of iOS device performance in the second quarter of Apple’s fiscal 2011. Within Apple’s filing, the company states, “As of March 2011, more than 108 million iPhones had been sold worldwide.” It goes on to say, “By March 2011, Apple had sold over 60 million [iPod touch] units,” and, “By March 2011, Apple sold over 19 million iPads.” Dediu uses these figures along with knowledge of Apple’s previously reported sales numbers to estimate that the company may have sold a minimum of 18.1 million iPhones, 4.5 million iPod touch units and 4.2 million iPads in its fiscal second quarter. While these numbers are anything but scientific, the iPhone and iPod touch figures are in line with analyst estimates. Apple’s iPad numbers, however, are extremely low compared to analyst estimates for the quarter, which range from 6 to 8 million iPads. Dediu notes that despite the potential miss on iPad sales, Apple is still poised to beat The Street’s EPS consensus.

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40 Comments
  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_GP2WYAHXS6CRUREISWBGPUSUGE Michael

    “By March 2011, Apple had sold over 60 million [iPod touch] units,” and, “By March 2011, Apple sold over 19 million iPads.”

    So by March 2011 they sold 60M tablets, and by March of 2011 they only sold 19M pads???

    so they sold 79M pads by march of 2011 or is that a typo?

    • tglass1976

      The 60 mill is for iPod touch not iPad.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_JNKVTT7PJMXPYP2GVCIERBQQCU Andrew

    Probably fall short because of the shortage.

    • dex

      engineered shortage.

      • Michael Scrip

        Apple was making enough iPads last quarter to sell 80,000 iPads per day… and that was the old iPad. I would assume they are making a similar amount or more today (but after the earthquake… who knows)

        The demand is there… people want the things. I really doubt Apple is creating an artificial shortage…

    • sirpaul

      No, because they suck.

  • Donnation

    How many of these “estimates” do we see put up every week? Who really cares what the estimated sales are, why not just wait until the numbers are released. These estimate people need to find better jobs and BGR needs to give us better content instead of trolling for anything to fill their blog with.

    • Tech Introvert

      People who make and lose money based on whether or not a company’s sales meet estimates care. They pay “these estimate people” a lot of money for insight + research. This analyst happens to be fairly well respected, so it’s worth posting. Most of us would just say “hmm” and be on our way, however you seem pretty upset by it…

      • RealDeal

        Most of these analysts have hidden agendas and are typically only even remotely accurate with the most obvious predictions.

  • Anonymous

    Reading that article one can only conclude that “someone” is on iKrack!

  • http://www.droiddoes.com/ Norm

    Now this is one analyst I like hearing from. Apple sucks! DROID DOES!!!

    • Anonymous

      Droid sucks
      why do you have to comment on EVERY Apple story.

      • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AR6HpRLyzMY Walter Sobchak

        Fro the same reason Bringit and Perspectively have to comment on every android post. It’s called trolling.
        It’s no fun if you just do it in a room where a bunch of people agree with you.
        Welcome to the internet.

      • Anonymous

        Oh, I didn’t realize “those two” were dating. Apple iS oPen after all…

      • Anonymous

        This is not a story about Apple, it is another story about yet another BGR anal-yst; who just happens to be the first one to be correct in his anal’ysis.

      • Anonymous

        How do you know he is correct? Is it because it matches what you desperately want to happen?

      • Anonymous

        CUNT!!

    • Anonymous

      “Now this is one analyst I like hearing from.”

      You aren’t going to appreciate his figures then… Even if this was all Apple sold the last quarter (and it sold considerably more than that) Apple are still going to earn around six bucks a share tomorrow night.

      This was the setting at the beginning of March… When people were holding off for the iPad 2. These numbers don’t include any iPad 2 figures.

      It is going to be considerably higher when they get officially released.

  • VirginMerry

    They’ll fall short becasue they are p*ssing on one of their suppliers…..

    • Anonymous

      The Samsung thing just happened, if that’s what you’re talking about. I don’t know that it’s soon enough to negatively impact their sales.

      Also, you’ve got to remember that it’s a two way street. Apple would get hurt in the short term, but companies would be lining up to try to take over that contract. Who could Samsung contract with that would be comparable?

    • Anonymous

      “They’ll fall short becasue they are p*ssing on one of their suppliers…..”

      Please explain how a legal filing released yesterday has an impact on sales for the last quarter that ended on the 25th of March?

      I know you anti-fangirls love to pee on Apple BUT, really, think about what you are saying and try and do some math related to end of quarter compared to the reporting of the end of quarter…

  • http://twitter.com/hawaiiinsomniac hawaiiinsomniac

    Suing a company that is providing supplies for your product (iPad) which is already in shortage and in great demand might not be the smartest idea.

    o_O

    lol, either get another supplier or just wait until the product is matching the demand.

    • Anonymous

      Please, what is Samsung gonna do?… Refuse money by refusing to sell parts to Apple?? Get out of here!

      • Anonymous

        There are plenty of other potential buyers for Samsung’s components. In the past, other device manufacturers have had to wait due to shortages caused by Apple. That fact would be completely irrelevant if there weren’t other companies interested in using Samsung as a supplier.

        The better response, would be to ask how Samsung could back out of a deal now that Apple has already, presumably, paid for the components. Personally, I think that’s one of the reason’s this lawsuit is happening now rather than 2 months ago. Samsung is now contractually obligated to produce parts for Apple, despite any douche baggery on Apple’s part (note that I don’t think this is necessarily wrong what Apple is doing, at least with respect to the Galaxy S).

      • Anonymous

        You are all making the same mistake.

        Samsung mobile is but a small part of Samsung the corporate entity. Samsung make tractors, amongst other things, for heaven’s sake. It’s very likely that the component side of the company are completely independent of the mobile division. Indeed I think some Samsung phones use non Samsung processors.

        No one is going to be backing out of a 6 billion up front deal… Which is around the figure Apple add to Samsung’s bottom line. So keep dreaming that this will destroy Apple but really that is a completely unfounded fantasy.

        However, it’s certainly not beyond plausibility that Apple are probably looking to scale back their transactions with Samsung going forward. I think the fact that Samsung are prepared to sell their tablet at a loss – speaks volumes to how committed they are at trying to take Apple down.

  • Anonymous

    Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

  • Anonymous

    “minimum of 18.1 million iPhones, 4.5 million iPod touch units and 4.2 million iPads in its fiscal second quarter”
    So at a minimum they sold 4.2 million iPad’s. That to me is pretty good considering:

    1) the quarter after holidays sales are always lower.
    2) the iPad 2 was announced March 2nd,(Though Feb 25, the invitations went out) and on sale march 11th, march 25th international orders. Sale of first iPad would have slowed significantly starting Feb 25th so thats 2 weeks in the US, and 4 weeks for international orders.
    3) Apples Q2 ends march 25th so iPad2 numbers will on only be for 2 weeks US and 1 day international.
    4) allot of Apples iPad 2 online orders did not ship for 2-3 weeks which means most of those will not count towards Q2
    5) The reports says by march 2011 4.2 million iPad’s. Does that mean end of march or end of february?

    Still I think the iPad numbers will be higher.

  • Anonymous

    Luckily, the earnings call is tomorrow, so we’ll have actual figures in 25 hours. Patience is a virtue.

  • El-father

    Jeeezzz another analyst estimate this is getting ridiculous actually this is just crazy and this guys get pay to do that?

    • Joel

      This guy probably has a masters or doctrine in math and gets paid big bucks to extrapolate a lot of data, jokes on you loser.

      • serpentor

        Looks like the loser here is Apple iPad sales

      • Anonymous

        Or apple is playing it coy. they don’t put anything on paper with out a plan. My interpretation is that when the suit was drawn up, these were comfortable ‘low-accurate’ numbers. As the accountants tie up the performance data, the numbers are likely (as almost all phrasing was ‘sales above’ figures, meaning not below).

        I don’t think they would have posted this lawsuit yesterday to the public to steal thunder from their announcement tomorrow. In fact, my guess this is the ‘lob toss’ that they hope all the advisors do exactly what you do, hopeing for a forehand smash to Apple’s (apparently weak) backhand., so they can prove you wrong with accounted-for numbers, scoring a winner, down the line, leaving most analysts trying to figure out why they played into this gambit.

        Apple will hit all their numbers tomorrow. iPad2 sales may be down, and they will state why (most likely impacts to the supply chain and japan sales), but any month that you sell north 4MILLION units of a $700 device ($2.8BILLION) or a yearly 48MILLION sales rate (30Billion in revenues), is a good month.

      • Anonymous

        Horace has an MBA from Harvard Business School and MS Engineering from Tufts University, and has a few years in SW development.

        while this analyst is definitely Apple ‘aware’,for the most part, he’s the most ‘objective’ analyst, as he basically just tracks data, and doesn’t chase down ‘insiders’ with rumors and guesses.

        He tracks all publically (and any private info he can get for free) available information and makes sense of the hype vs. the numbers. He tracks the other trackers (meta analysis), and typically puts his analysis into hard numbers or comparisions and information rich graphs.

      • Anonymous

        The clever thing he did was to look at the legal docs a pull out financial data.

        The most important thing is that these are minimum numbers. State of Play only 2 months into the quarter. The last 3 weeks of the quarter also contained the iPad 2 release and, if I remember clearly it finished the Saturday of the international iPad 2 roll out – so 7 million is certainly not out of the ballpark if Apple actually had that many to sell.

        More importantly, and more to the point as it moved the share price, were the iPod Touch and iPhone figures which have sent analysts back to their calculators to hone their figures for their clients before tomorrow nights reveal…

      • sirpaul

        wtf is a “doctrine in math”? You mean doctorate, right? Looks like somebody has a “doctrine” in stupid!

  • Anonymous

    Whose estimates are these? Just made up numbers by wall street and blogger world bums. I didn’t hear Apple come out and say they expect so sell so many of each product next quarter?

  • Anonymous

    Considering that Apple stores still have lines every morning for ipad2′s and are sold out within 30 minutes of opening, the only shortfall can be from supply. But hey, I’m not a professional analyst, just a guy with common sense.

  • @j_nathaniel

    Well, I have yet to see anyone using an iPad 2 in person. Online, sure, but not a single person I know, many of whom are Apple only kind of people, have one. I’m not saying that they aren’t flying off of the shelves but anecdotal evidence says they might be flying much more slowly than expected.

  • hockey88

    It only took a little more than 1 hour to decide that my iPad2 is going back after working with my Playbook. Out of the box there is no comparison. The Playbook is killer.

  • RP

    the scariest name in the apple store is ANDROID
     

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