Piper Jaffray predicts 2011 Apple roadmap

By on Jan 3, 2011 at 9:29 AM
General January 3, 2011

Predictions from Piper Jaffray’s managing director and senior research analyst Gene Munster have been compared to darts tossed at a 10-foot dartboard, but that won’t stop the man from churning out new notes. On Monday, Mr. Munster laid out his roadmap for Apple in 2011 and it actually looks like he may be in store for a few wins this year. Then again, the roadmap is based almost entirely on things we already know with near certainty — or, in some cases, absolute certainty — so these can hardly be called Munster’s wins if they pan out. Here’s how Apple’s 2011 pans out in Munster’s eyes:

Anouncements:

  • Verizon launch of the iPhone: Probability 95% (March qtr) (our est)
  • Mac App Store: Probability 100% (Jan. 6 launch)
  • iTunes cloud services: Probability 90%
  • iPad geographic expansion: Probability 100%
  • iPad subsidies from carriers: Probability 80%
  • OS X Lion: Probability 100% (summer 2011)

Hardware upgrades:

  • iPhone (March quarter). We are modeling for Apple to launch a CDMA version of the iPhone at Verizon in the March-11 quarter. The fifth generation iPhone will likely ship this summer with NFC capability.
  • iPad (spring). We believe the second generation iPad will launch in spring 2011.
  • Macs (uncertain). We have moderate confidence that Apple will release redesigned MacBook Pros in 1H11 and redesigned iMacs in 2H11.

Munster does also note that Apple may launch some nifty new Web-based services and maybe even a television in 2011, but again, these are just rehashed rumors that have been around for quite a while now.

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23 Comments

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  • Anonymous

    When did the analysts get into the business of spreading rumors? I thought it was reserved for bloggers

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_GP2WYAHXS6CRUREISWBGPUSUGE Michael

    Apple producing something that is worthwhile and not a remake of a preexisting product : 10% (not really going to happen)

    but neither is Google/Android going to do something new and exciting nor Blackberry will.

    • guest

      “not a remake of a preexisting product”

      hmmm iphone 2g, 3g, 3gs, 4…… they look the same

      you must be living under a rock

      • mj

        He said apple producing something NOT a remake is slim… learn to read

      • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_GP2WYAHXS6CRUREISWBGPUSUGE Michael

        thanks for point that out. I award you one (1) like point.

  • http://hurmoth.com/ Hurmoth

    I’d like to know how I can become a famous research analyst too. Here’s my Apple prediction for 2011: Apple will release new products that will be over-hyped and overpriced. Apple will release a new iPhone on some network, 100% chance that will be at least AT&T. New iPods, Macs, and a new OS X are a 95% chance.

    Now, where’s my money bitches!

  • Bill7860

    Three total morons posting so far. Does anybody with an IQ over 72 post here?

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_GP2WYAHXS6CRUREISWBGPUSUGE Michael

      Being that you fit right it here, i doubt it.

  • Anonymous

    Smart phone market in the US:

    Apple – 28.6%
    RIM – 26.1%
    Android – 25.8

    These numbers are current as of the end of November for the US market and available at GigaOM. Google’s inability to take the #1 position in the smart phone space from Apple seems odd to me. There are roughly 100 devices that ship with Android. As sad as that is though, Android isn’t even beating RIM yet. How does that saying go, “You could f^ck up a cup of coffee.”

    • Monique

      well, if you really looked closely at the numbers, you would see that Apple grew only .7% in that time frame (Jun to Nov), while Android grew by 3%, and that was at the time in which the iPhone 4 was released. You have to remember, Apple and RIM have been in the smartphone game longer than Google. And Android really only started flourishing when the Droid was introduced at the end of 2009. And, Android will continue to grow. It is estimated that Android will take over the US marketshare by the end of Q1 2011. So, your argument is a FAIL!

      • Anonymous

        End of 2009 everyone suggested that Android would over take iOS in 2010 but it didn’t happen. Look, I agree with you that Android should have already over taken Apple. Android ships on so many devices. So why hasn’t it happened yet? That is what I am asking. 100 devices and Android still can not over take Apple. Will it take 200 devices???

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/William-Diaz/100000639956723 William Diaz

      Like Im gonna believe GigaOM…haha

      What that REALLY means is

      iOS Devices *including iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch* – 28.6%
      RIM *4.5, 5.0, 6.0* – 26.1%
      Android *1.6, 2.0, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3* – 25.8%

      Its easy to be at the top when your company doesnt distinguish in hardware that its software is in. Im talking about Apple.
      Its also really easy to see worldwide Android trumps Apples iOS in the smartphone category all together.

      • Anonymous

        William, you are an idiot. Smart phones, not platform totals, Smart phones. Come on, say it with me now.

  • Anonymous

    For Google’s roadmap, just delay everything by a year. They can’t copy Apple right away, otherwise it would be too obvious.

    • Anonymous

      Not really, Microsoft made their living doing it for twenty years. Most people don’t really care. See, when a person has low expectations of not only their technology but of themselves they don’t mind having “MeToo” products.

    • Anonymous

      Your forgot about the crap they say they’re going make/release, but never do…ala Google Wave…

      Same with M$; Remember Courier? Per they’re jumping monkey CEO “It’s going to be awesome and WAY better than any other tablet out there”…Cool! Where is it? Ohhh right…never mind.

      • http://www.facebook.com/people/William-Diaz/100000639956723 William Diaz

        Google Wave was flawed from the beginning. If it was integrated into Android and Gmail and Chrome similar to how Flock integrates social networking, then Wave would have been something.

        I do agree with that point that is one of Googles flawed products, but it never launched, so they get a do-over. What they DONT get a do-over with is Latitude, Buzz, or Orkut.

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/William-Diaz/100000639956723 William Diaz

      How did Google copy Apple? Google bought Android in 2005, two full years before Apple even had an iPhone. While Apple “claims” to have been working on iPhone for 4 years, Android has been worked on as an individual company long before Google bought them. Lets also not forget that if Apple at the time of the original iPhone launch claimed, by Steve Jobs himself, the iPhone has been 4 years in the making, why in later launches he claims the phones only took 2 years in the making… Why? Because he wants people to think that he not only had Apple work on the phone long before Google, but that their products are faster at R&D then Google.

      Personally, I think this day in age, Smartphone technology is meeting convergence where no phone will distinguish itself feature wise from the next. There is nothing wrong with that, and there is nothing wrong with delaying things to get it right. There is also nothing wrong with releasing something like Google does and having a revision OS when it is complete, unlike Apple who will FORCE people into buying a new phone LONG before the old one is even paid off. This isnt the 1990′s where people can throw down hundreds of dollars every few months or year just to upgrade.

  • Monique

    Oh, and if you can name all 100 Android devices available in the US, please do so. Yes there are lots of Androd devices available, but you posted stats about the US smartphone marketshare, and contrary to popular believe there are not 100 Android smartphones available in the US.

  • ZZed34

    Frothing apple haters are funny. Do you guys troll the web looking for any apple posts to complain about?

  • Michael

    My Co-workers brother in law works for verizon and he had to go to iphone school this month.
    He is there now and says it will come out in feb 2011

    • cdstelmach

      I work for Verizon and I constantly walk by our secret Verizon iPhone room at our offices.. It’s awesome some times Steve Jobs hangs out there too.

  • cdstelmach

    Droid, Droid Eris, Incredilbe, LG Ally, Fascinate, Vortex, Droid X, Droid Pro, Droid 2, Droid 2 Global, HTC Evo, Epic 4G, Backflip, G1, G2, Vibrant, Galaxy S, HTC Evo Shift, thats all I can think of now. Sure it’ll be doubled next month. I have a Droid for every day of the month.. :D

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