Predictions from Piper Jaffray’s managing director and senior research analyst Gene Munster have been compared to darts tossed at a 10-foot dartboard, but that won’t stop the man from churning out new notes. On Monday, Mr. Munster laid out his roadmap for Apple in 2011 and it actually looks like he may be in store for a few wins this year. Then again, the roadmap is based almost entirely on things we already know with near certainty — or, in some cases, absolute certainty — so these can hardly be called Munster’s wins if they pan out. Here’s how Apple’s 2011 pans out in Munster’s eyes:
- Verizon launch of the iPhone: Probability 95% (March qtr) (our est)
- Mac App Store: Probability 100% (Jan. 6 launch)
- iTunes cloud services: Probability 90%
- iPad geographic expansion: Probability 100%
- iPad subsidies from carriers: Probability 80%
- OS X Lion: Probability 100% (summer 2011)
- iPhone (March quarter). We are modeling for Apple to launch a CDMA version of the iPhone at Verizon in the March-11 quarter. The fifth generation iPhone will likely ship this summer with NFC capability.
- iPad (spring). We believe the second generation iPad will launch in spring 2011.
- Macs (uncertain). We have moderate confidence that Apple will release redesigned MacBook Pros in 1H11 and redesigned iMacs in 2H11.
Munster does also note that Apple may launch some nifty new Web-based services and maybe even a television in 2011, but again, these are just rehashed rumors that have been around for quite a while now.