Credit Suisse gives AT&T iPhone exodus predictions

By on Sep 21, 2010 at 1:30 PM
General September 21, 2010

Credit Suisse has published a speculative report on just what might happen to AT&T’s customer base if rival Verizon Wireless were to begin carrying the iPhone. According to Credit Suisse, 23% of AT&T iPhone users indicate they would move over to Big Red if the company was to offer Apple’s smartphone. This would translate into a 0.2% jump in churn for AT&T; from 1.1% to 1.3% in 2011-2012. The report also predicts that AT&T’s 2012 new net subscriptions would fall flat, but Verizon’s net adds would spike to around 4 million. Despite what seems like bad news, the analytics firm upgraded Ma’ Bells stock from neutral to outperform, saying, “it was undervalued compared to Verizon and more prone to upward earnings estimate revisions.” The report also notes that VZW’s cost-per-user would increase significantly upon offering the iPhone but also noted this increase would “snap back” the following year. 

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  • ducky

    would like to see this happen soon.

  • DonnyKerabatsos

    God, I can’t wait. At&t was horrible back when I had a 3G.

  • Swagger

    Just what Verizon is hoping,more reasons to jack up the rates.

    • Sandwich

      Right on. If Verizon does get the iPhone then they will definitely raise rates. This may force ATT to lower theirs. This might turn out to be a great thing for Big Blue customers.

  • SMK

    We’ll finally get to see if the iPhone gets bad signal or if it’s just AT&T that sucks.

    Maybe this is why AT&T has been spending so much money to beef up their network lately.

    • Zeke

      Not entirely true. If you wanted to see if the problems persist on Verizon that plague AT&T, then you need to move EVERY SINGLE iPhone users to Verizon. Verizon is going to win some BS “better network” award with this and it won’t even be a fair comparison.

    • Cingulair

      I agree with Zeke. The main reason At&t has had problems because it has had all the iPhone customers on its’ network at once. If Verizon gets the iPhone it’ll only have the Big Red faithful, those that believe the hype around VZW’s network, and those that At&t sucks in their area. Otherwise, they’ll never have all of the iPhone customers. This will cause a whole lot of hype for VZW that won’t even be nearly true.

      Personally, Verizon covers my state with 850, which is the preferred signal of choice for most carriers. Even At&t’s 3G for penetration reasons. And Verizon’s call quality is NOT better than At&t. It’s right on par. Saturation is a little better. Only major difference is coverage area.

  • Scott

    The only thing that would make me switch from AT&T to VZW regarding iPhone would be if VZW got an LTE iPhone first. Otherwise, my speeds and coverage has been just fine where I live. I just would really like to taste some LTE goodness ;)

  • gquaglia

    Sorry, but the iphone isn’t all that. I’ve been playing with the HTC Aria for a few days now and Android is what iOS should be.

    • Eric

      You probably pee your pants just to feel warm in the winter.

    • Perspective

      Sorry, Acura isn’t all that. I’ve been rocking a Ford Fiesta for a few days now and the Fiesta is everything the TL should be.

      • Eric

        I love the Acura TL.

    • Apple Fanboy

      Sorry gquaglia, but saying the HTC Aria is better than the IPhone, is like saying Hamburger Helper is better than Filet Mignon.

  • Mgl323
    • Michael S

      Yeah…. most people on AT&T who have an iPhone would probably stay with AT&T. And that’s fine. Lots of people are happy with their current provider, whoever it is.

      But, that still doesn’t change the fact that Apple needs to get their phones on another carrier in their home country.

      Every time I hear that you can get an iPhone on 5 different carriers in other countries… yet AT&T has Apple over a barrel in America… it pisses me off.

      Who knows how many people would switch from AT&T to Verizon? All I care about is how many people could finally get an iPhone on Verizon if they were allowed to sell it.

      • Mgl323

        If they do manage to get the iPhone on other carriers, then theres going to be a LONG waiting list for the next generation iPhone here in the USA.

  • StevenHamburg

    this is bad for anybody that is pro-android. android needs to gain some more momentum, and soon. the problem is that the only good advertisements are ones promoting droid. that’s a problem because most people are unaware that droid runs android.

    once the iphone is available on other carriers there will be a pretty big chunk of potential android users that end up getting the iphone instead. now you might ask, how does that affect me? i will tell you. the sudden slowdown in android growth will deter developers to develop for android.

    the solution: google needs to start advertising for android. not just one phone, or one line of phones, but all of them. advertise the os, and how there are enough variety out there to cater to everyone’s needs. make people interested in buying an android phone, not just a droid x.

    next problem, malaria.

    • Sandwich

      Chill Bro,people will decide what they want. Choice is a good thing. And trust me,Google will dry their tears with $100 bills on mattresses filled with champagne. In other words they’ll be just fine,they are both capitalist blood sucking companies.

      • Mr. Incredible

        I think your missing the point that was trying to made, competition is good for both android and iOS due to the fact that they are pushing each other to develope the next great thing. i love both, i had the iphone and moved to the android. I work for verizon which is why i made the switch, my biggest gripe about the iphone is not being able to sync OTA. And having to connect the phone to my computer and going through itunes. Other than that, they both are awesome!

  • Jarrett

    These numbers may prove to be very accurate. There seems to be three camps of At&t customers:

    1. Service is fine thank you very much.
    2. Service is for the most part okay, some cities I travel to could be better.
    3. Service in my area sucks.

    I think 1 and 2 make up the majority. It doesn’t much matter though because every network has problems on day 1 getting all the iPhones activating, Verizon will not have any more success than anyone else has had. On day one when 500,000 people want to get an iPhone from Verizon their servers too will crash.

    • Mgl323

      Vocal minority tends to be more louder aka number 3

    • trooth

      Verizon and Sprint both already handle more data than AT&T. AT&T is finally putting some money into their network. Their subpar network quality is there fault, not the IPhones. Had they invested in their network sooner they could have avoided the problems that caused their bad press.

    • Donna

      You need to look at the actual numbers… only a small, microscopic 20% of the AT&T customer base is “very satisfied”.

      (My business would have closed LONG AGO if it only had a “20% satisfied” rate.)

  • Glenn_Va

    I was VZW customer since their AirTouch days but changed to ATT Wireless last year. I was tired of being being charged for every little thing and not getting much in return. I also couldn’t sucessfully send/receive any sms/mms messages from friends/family in Italy. Many of their phones also didn’t have the capability of connecting to GSM networks. Now I have the ability to do all those things and get rollover minutes as a bonus.

    • James

      Rollover minutes are a joke. If you need to have a plan with rollover minutes, you are paying too much for too many minutes.

      • Eric

        Not really…some months I go over, some I go under. Good thing I get to keep the rollover minutes for when I go over.

  • PAPINYC

    God, I love the Swiss !

  • JM

    That might end up being good for AT&T. Especially when people realize that some of the phone’s are the phone itself and not the carrier.

  • http://bgr McLovin

    What would all of us do if the Iphone was on VZW ? No more conspiracy talk, no more AT&T vs. VZW smack downs….

    I just got a Samsung Fascinate… pretty frickin nice . MUCH better screen than an Iphone, or my prior Incredible.

  • MacMan

    Fu*k big red. The force is strong at the deathstar.

    • Mgl323

      Lol

  • Sonya

    Here’s the truth even though Android lovers will not want to hear it. The average consumer wants an iPhone. Once the iPhone goes to Verizon, a huge chunk of Droid/Android users will forget about Android and pick up an iPhone. And frankly I’m not sure how Google would prevent this. VZW has done an excellent job with advertising, but Apple still reigns supreme when it comes to marketing.

    I own a Droid.

    • Cingulair

      It doesn’t get anymore real that what Sonya wrote. My whole family has the iPhone 4. My wife asked a girl with an Evo how she liked her phone and she said fine. When she asked if it sufficed as the closest that she could get to an iPhone, (I couldn’t believe she asked that). She shook her head, “Yes!”.

      An iPhone is what most people wants. Once they get it alot of them will lose interest. Apple is smart in that area. Keep most wanting and they’ll get it because they don’t like feeling deprived of it more so than a desire for the OS itself. I personally am rooting for a good competitor. I’m hoping that WebOS or WinMO7 will be a strong competitor. I’m itching to try Android but, everytime I get close Google does something else stupid to breach user privacy..

  • BL

    Only thing Verizon has going for it is the droid x and that’s it! I’ve never had problems with AT&T since 2003. I am leaving my 32gb 3GS behind for android soon though. 4.5 inch screen,64gb 1080p video please…

    • Adam

      thats a joke. If you want a rooted phone that is top of the line you would go with Verizon. The Droid Incredible is an amazing phone. Most super Android phones will land on Verizon as they have deeper pockets.

  • Adam

    I think a lot of it depends on where you live. Here in Ohio Verizon is the only service provider that offers any reception in nearly all of NE Ohio. I can go out on my 200 acre farm with my Droid and be rocking a perfect 3G signal while AT&T does not even offer service at all. So as much as some of you might want to complain or whatever you are saying many people who want the best signal possible no matter where they go would go with Verizon.

    • Adam

      Whoops cut off part of my comment. It should have said also that everyone is complaining about Verizon nickel and dime’ing people even though their prices are right on with AT&T or cheaper if you get a corporate discount which nearly everyone is eligible for unless you work for a very small firm. I receive a 22% discount on everything I subscribe to and a 25% discount on any phone simply b/c my wife has a pay stub from a medical company. Not even a “big” one.

  • litskinitalian

    I have had it confirmed by top Verizon account management that the iPhone and iPad are coming to Verizon in Q1 of 2011 and that it is being released in the 1Q because they will be LTE devices

  • Chellykay88

    If I’m not mistaken, apple originally offered the iPhone to Verizon and they passed. If the iPhone goes to another carrier I would be surprised if that carrier was Verizon…..

    • Debbie

      Just because 3-4 *YEARS* ago Verizon didn’t want the unproven, untested, unknown “iphone”… you think everything is still the same today?

      A lot happens in 6 months in the world of cell phones… let alone 3-4 YEARS.

  • ivan

    Donna, ur stupid and make me angry

    • Donna

      The truth often hurts, doesn’t it?

      Luckily that doesn’t change the truth.

  • rsaturno

    I am skeptical about this. I find it hard to believe that 23% of iPhone users on AT&T who presumably just spent some coin on their iPhones would be so willing to go buy a brand new device on another carrier, particularly when the vast majority of them are going to be locked into contracts with AT&T.

  • Pete

    Let me set the record straight. Big Red already transmits more data than AT&T and also has more customers using more voice service as well. Their entire network is 3G, while only a small percentage of AT&T’s network is. Android users transmit just as much, if not more data than iPhone users, and Android has already has a larger share than iPhone. AT&T’s network issues are completely due to their lack of it, not because of the iPhone. It is amazing how AT&T has done such a great job of fooling people. They do have great marketing I will say, but the fact is VZW has a better network and can handle much more traffic on it. I have the Droid X and am in love with it as well as the VZW service. My friends that have iPhones use my phone when they can’t get coverage or 3G. I’m not one of those partial people but the fact is VZW is the better network and I know many people that would make the switch if they get the iPhone. I would check out the Droids if I were you!

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