Gartner: Android to be become #2 worldwide mobile OS this year, #1 by 2014?

By on Sep 10, 2010 at 2:10 PM
General September 10, 2010

Electronics research firm Gartner is predicting that: “The worldwide mobile operating system market will be dominated by Symbian and Android, as the two OSs will account for 59.8 percent of mobile OS sales by 2014.” The study goes onto predict that Android will oust BlackBerry maker Research In Motion from the number two spot at some point this year and will contest Nokia’s mobile OS — Symbian — for the top spot in 2014. Gartner writes:

Gartner predicts that by 2014, open-source platforms will continue to dominate more than 60 percent of the market for smartphones. Single-source platforms, such as Apple’s iOS and Research In Motion’s OS, will increase in unit terms, but their growth rate will be below market average and not enough to sustain share increase. Windows Phone will be relegated to sixth place behind MeeGo in Gartner’s worldwide OS ranking by 2014.

We’ve got the full article linked up for you. Let us know what you think.

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  • Al

    I’m curious as to what Gartner predicted in 2006 the mobile OS landscape would look like in 2010?

    • theineffablebob

      Well, neither Android nor iOS were available then.

  • McHale

    Gartner is a group of technically challenged idiots who have credibility only from those who are bigger idiots. Anything technical from them is a poor guess at best. I could pull up some of their documents I was forced to read by an idiot boss I have and many are stupid at best. Even moreso when you read the ones that are a couple years old and how off they were then and now.

    Symbian will NOT be in the top two spots in 2014 but I wouldn’t expect those idiots to know any different.

  • Michael

    Android reminds me of windows mobile 6.1. Laggy/bland and boring.

    • Chris

      You’ve probably not used it lately. I love my iPhone, but Android is definitely catching up. I still prefer it, but I figure in the next few years, at the pace they’re moving, I might make a platform jump.

    • Mitch

      What a baseless, uninformed opinion you have.

  • Cindy

    We all know its going to be Android or iOS at the top spot….symbian is dying DUH

  • gquaglia

    I’m stilling waiting to meet one person that uses Symbian.

    • Doug

      The article says “worldwide”. Symbian is the OS on each of the top ten selling smartphones in India. Head over there and you can meet millions and millions of people using Symbian. It is still the #1 selling smartphone platform world wide.

    • Nokia Guy

      I live in Illinois and I’ve been using Symbian for over 7 years

  • Jarrett

    He is calling for Apple to ship 70m iOS units next year. Big number and any company would be happy to ship that amount. I find it odd that Apple’s manufacturing would suggest 50m iPhones and 28m iPads next year. My math tells me that amounts to 78m. Eight million more than your calculation and we haven’t even ventured a guess for how many iPod Touches.

    Frankly I am shocked that Android devices are not outselling iOS devices already. There are at least 100 differing devices that operate some flavor of Android and yet they still are not even selling as many devices as Apple. By this point there should be a 3-1 ratio favoring Android.

    Who is heading the Android movement, Michael Dell?

    Is Apple doing something right or is the OHA doing something wrong? And why does it take an alliance to overtake a single company?

    • Doug

      Apple counts iPod Touch sales as iPhone sales.

      • RT

        hell apple probably count imac and appletv sales as phone sales as well.

      • Jarrett

        Actually when Apple says iPhone sales, they mean iPhone sales. When they say iPod Touch sales they mean iPod touch sales. When they say iPad sales they mean iPad sales. When they say iOS device sales they mean that as total iOS device sales.

        Apple is a publicly traded company and whenever they disclose numbers they have a legal obligation to express those number correctly.

        So, instead of hating Apple to hate Apple why not just enjoy what you use? If your platform of choice fills your needs there really is no need to mention your platforms competitors is there?

      • midibite

        Apple has NEVER released iPod touch sales. http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/09/05/why-does-steve-jobs-play-fast-and-loose-with-ipod-touch-sales-numbers/

        Apple is doing something right, it’s called marketing. But Android is doing it better on more platforms.

        It’s going to take Android time but Apple had a huge head start with the iPhone and set the standard. Now while they work on design and some added functions, Android will always surpass in innovation and hardware/software, where Apple can’t keep up.

      • Jenny P

        “Apple is a publicly traded company and whenever they disclose numbers they have a legal obligation to express those number correctly.”

        You mean like Enron?

    • madcow

      J, Android is outselling iOS right now…

      Market Share (%) Sales
      Android 2010 – 17.7 – 47,462.1
      iOS 2010 – 15.4 – 41,461.8

      • Jarrett

        @ madcow,

        Those are Gartner’s “predicted” numbers for 2010. The last time I checked we have almost four months left in 2010.

        I posted this below but I wanted to help you out, so here goes:

        Now, iPhone sales through june this year were roughly 17 million X’s 2 (1/2 year) and that is 34 million. We know that Apple has already sold 3+ million iPads in the second quarter X’s 3 (3 quarters of availablity) and that is roughly 10 million ( suggesting of course that they only sell 3.3 million in these next two quarters) so we have roughly 44 million iOS devices (very conservative) for 2010 and we haven’t even figured in the 20+ million iPod Touches for the year.

        comprehending is key to posting a point of view. Taking someones guess work as fact is silly.

        If you like Android, terrific. Number two has to be loved also.

    • MicroNix

      Dude, Android phones outselling i*hones is old news already. Where have you been?

    • Melissa Kendricks

      “here are at least 100 differing devices that operate some flavor of Android and yet they still are not even selling as many devices as Apple.”

      Ah yes, the typical frightened apple fanboy strawman argument. Keep talking loser, Jarrett, it’s good for a laugh!

      • nyclady

        And you appear to be the fandroid hater who roams around trying to have an argument about why your phone is so much better…do u guys listen to yourselves, u sound like the people u dislike so much

  • patrick

    If Nokia wants to maintain it’s huge presence they should adopt android and/or windows. No one cares about symbian. If they do this they will regain their us market share. I expect them to do do this by the end of this year, after wm7 becomes or doesn’t become a success

    • Crackajack

      they are eliminated symbian. but not for android or windows mobile. but for meego, which will blow away all other mobile OS’s on the market.

  • patrick

    @jarrett
    It only took one little free robot to take out the hugeness that was apple. And if you read the chart you will notice that android has out sold ios.

    • Jarrett

      @ Patrick,

      I think you should consult with Google because not even Google would make such an incorrect statement. Although, how would Google know right, I mean they are the substance that make the OHA what it is.

      The only thing I hate about this site is that commenters just love not to know.

      So, let me repeat. The fact that there are over 100 devices running Android and the OHA has yet to have a quarter where they outsell iOS devices strikes me as sad. How can you have 100+ devices and not outsell a single company?

      If you own an EVO and for you it is the end all to all devices does it not strike you as odd that HTC can not sell 5+million a month for such a great device?

      If you own a Droid X and for you it is the end all to all devices does it not strike you as odd that Motorola can not sell 5+ million a month?

      My question remains, how does one company, Apple, still sell more devices than the OHA per quarter?

      Again, is it something Apple is doing right, or something the OHA is doing wrong?

      • Jarrett

        @ Patrick,

        To boot, you are incorrect on the 2010 numbers. My looking at the calendar tells me that today is September 10th 2010. Which would suggest that these 2010 numbers are a “prediction” for the totals of 2010.

        Now, iPhone sales through june this year were roughly 17 million X’s 2 (1/2 year) and that is 34 million. We know that Apple has already sold 3+ million iPads in the second quarter X’s 3 (3 quarters of availablity) and that is roughly 10 million ( suggesting of course that they only sell 3.3 million in these next two quarters) so we have roughly 44 million iOS devices (very conservative) for 2010 and we haven’t even figured in the 20+ million iPod Touches for the year.

        The problem I believe for you is that you want to just hate Apple. Which for you I suppose is fine. Do yourself a favor though and learn to do math and see how that will help your argument. The chart is a prediction and even that people putting that chart together seem to be missing a little in the math department.

        And yes, Android will eventually be showing up on way more devices than everything else. The problem is that even if Apple only ends up with 10% of the mobile market they will still be the largest and most profitable tech company on the planet.

        And still, I find it embarrassing for anyone championing Android that it is still lagging behind ONE company.

      • patrick

        There aren’t 100 Android devices kid. If you want to get technical get your shit together first. And as the poster states above, If apple wants to license there OS to other manufacturers then and only then will they retain third place. In case you missed the point of the article it is all about projections,so do a little more research about androids growth in Asia and get back to me. Nokia does so well because they use symbian on about 100 devices world wide. And who’s model is android following, the world leader, or apple? Not the fruit dude. In closing Asia (the worlds largest cell phone market) loves what is trendy in America and right now that aint apple.
        And just a guess here, look into that most profitable tech company statement and you may find otherwise. No, I’m not here to give you all the answers, thats for you to find out if your not to scared to find out what is waiting for you outside of your mom’s basement. BTW, loose the skinny jeans.

      • patrick

        July Issue of Fortune Magazine. Top most profitable companies. Top 50 Apple not even on the board. MS, HP, Samsung and Google are though.

      • patrick

        Here is the link kid. Don’t say I never gave you anything kid.http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2010/performers/companies/profits/

      • Jarrett

        Here is a taste of what is happening in the mobile space.

        http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-heres-how-apples-iphone-totally-humiliated-the-mobile-industry-2010-7

        Apple makes money, it is what any good business does. Apple is taking the majority of the profits in the mobile space just like they take the majority of the profits in the PC space.

      • Melissa Kendricks

        Now Jarrett is proud about apple fanboy’s overpaying for a product. I love it!

      • MicroNix

        Let’s hear the names of these 100+ Android Phones. I’ll bet you don’t even make it half way.

        Sorry apple only puts out one phone. It is their problem to deal with. Get over it already Jarrett.

      • Jarrett

        What problem? And what am I getting over exactly?

      • Mrwirez

        Jarrett are you ever NOT an asswipe?

      • MicroNix

        The problem of one device vs an army of android devices you always bark about. And you need to get over this because the fact that Android is open to be installed by whatever device manufacturer wants it is not going away. When people compare the number of Windows 7 machines to snow leopard, they don’t compare Apple to HP units. No, it is by OS.

      • Jarrett

        @ MicrosNix,

        I think you are confused. When I am saying 100 Android devices I am saying that with that many devices how DO YOU NOT already own the #1 spot. Everyone’s response should be “yeah, how are they not number one already?” The OHA (Google) had/has the intent of being the Microsoft of mobile and should already be but they are not. So again, is it something that Apple is doing right or just something that the OHA is doing wrong?

        Again, use what you like. I am positive Android is a fine platform. It is why I don’t ever bash the platform just the users of the platform that hate anything not Android. Besides, number two has to have users too.

  • Mark

    Nokia will not adopt Android because it would be incredibly retarded to do so. Anyone suggesting the idea has no idea how the mobile phone industry works.

    As for Android overtaking Symbian, no chance. IDC have that one pretty much spot on.

    • patrick

      Not a symbian hater here, but looking at market trends in Asia, Symbian is what daddy uses, Android is what the kids want. So when push comes to shove, Nokia may want to adopt Android to cut development costs. Just a guess. My gut says it is only a matter of time.
      As far as BB, their only hope is to adopt Android and skin it with a BB theme, with BB apps hardwired in.That new Motorola Android that looks like a BB is a perfect example. 6.0 is better, but not even close to on par with Android or IOS

  • sweetman

    I think more accurate prediction based on a level field can be made after iOS gets on all carriers there will be a dramatic drop on sales of android , the only reason they’ve done so well it’s because of AT

    • Jarrett

      iOS on multiple US carriers isn’t going to change Apple’s number very much in the World figures. The only numbers that are going to change are going to be Apple’s US numbers and Androids US numbers. None of it matters anyway as long as Apple isn’t on multiple carriers. So in reality (present) it is a moot point.

      • patrick

        wow, I think we agree here. Most people I know that want an iPhone here in the states already have one. It’s been three years so contracts with other carriers have passed and been renewed. Once it goes to another carrier, most people will be at least a year out until contract renewal.

      • Jarrett

        I suppose we sort of agree. My point was that having access to another 150 million “potential” users wasn’t going to drastically increase Apple’s “World wide” market share. I think the availability of the iPhone 4 in China is more important that all the carriers in the US four times over.

        But, once the iPhone is available on all US carriers we will find out somethings:

        How much growth will Android have in the US after the fact?

        Can other carriers handle the “possible” serving crushing of opening week sales.

        Will carrier networks be taxed like “old blue’s”.

        We will see what we see but only when we see it.

      • destardi

        *if* the iPhone comes to other carriers, you would still experience the same peak that AT&T has experienced.

        There might be a bump in sales over a year or so, but Apple is missing what Android offers: an O/S that scales better than a locked down baby-ish O/S, on one primary phone device.

        Consumers like choice, and with iPhone they aren’t getting it. It’s interesting the last sales numbers for iPhone 4 are 90% repeat buyers, NOT NEW CONVERTS.

        You should download and read Strand Consult’s thorough study on why they iPhone is 80% marketing, and not good for carriers.

        After using both, I feel like I’m 10 years old when I use the iphone.

  • michael scott

    How about that “early Sept.” FroYo update for us DX owners?
    Tired of waiting.

  • Magnetized

    I’m just happy to not be a part of the android/apple sheep crowd. I’ll take webOS over both of those OS’s anyday. You guys can battle over whose #1. I’m perfectly happy in the various other OS crowd.

    • MicroNix

      Different strokes for different folks. Competition is great, isn’t it?

  • McHale

    Gartner is a bunch of tech wannabe idiots who are only respected by bigger idiots (like VP’s and CEO’s). I’ve gone back through some of their previous reports I was forced to read and not only are they funny to read today because they were so wrong, they were funny to read then – by those of us who are actually technically competent.

    Symbian in the top 2? Not a chance…

  • http://www.absolutefiction.com [rono]

    Be afraid.
    Be very afraid.

  • Sal

    Android is getting better and better every day! It’s the small things that matter the most.
    What other mobile OS allows you to speak a simple voice command that automatically adds a calendar entry with exact date and time to your calendar? One small example that most folks not using android phones even know about, looking forward to many more down the immediate road!

    • davido

      Agreed – a great example of a feature most don’t know about.

  • FlyingPig

    Wow. Amazing analysis. Did someone actually have to pay for that?

    Lets see, HTC, LG, ….. (insert 20 other manufacturers) not forgetting Samsung (the worlds second largest cell phone manufacturer), are all producing Android smart phones.

    Nokia, Apple and RIM appear to be the only holdouts.

    And we’re supposed to be amazed that Android is to become the most popular smart phone in the every growing smart phone market.

    It would be a disaster if it wasn’t number 1!!!!

    Wait until you have to pay the Java license fee costs; and the email over wireless license cost.

    Should kick up the cost of a handset by a cool hundred, or drop the margins considerably. Will these companies want to pay for Android when that happens?

    • Jarrett

      Being on the outside I say it is already a disaster that Android isn’t number one. The OHA must be very disorganized to have not crushed everyone yet.

      Once Google settles with Oracle then oracle is going to start hitting every manufacturer who shills Android. Then we are going to have the PC affect. Companies all cutting costs across the board just to stay profitable.

      The only business that is sustainable is vertical integration. And last I checked three companies used such methods:

      Nokia
      RIM
      Apple

      • Melissa Kendricks

        Jarrett, go away. Apple is in a downward trend. They will always be a niche player.

  • Jawman

    Midibite you hit the mail on the head. It’s because of Apple’s excessive advertising. Imagine if Google advertised Android like apple does for their products, Android would no doubt be number 1 with its functionality, innovation, hardware/software, and most importantly availability on all carriers and multiple manufacturers. If you add all that together with the number one advertising, its a no brainer.

    • Mark

      Google doesn’t make hardware (.)
      Even the servers they set up for companies are produced by a third party vendor.

  • Riley

    Google is the world’s largest spyware company.

    How much is your privacy worth?

    • Sal

      Privacy is only a concern if you’ve got something to hide :-)

  • Gordon

    isnt the big wildcard if Apple adds more carriers?

    • destardi

      Nope, because its still the same, singular phone, in the same singular form factor, and peak sales will once again be reached on any other carrier.

      Android offers diverse handsets, at many different price points, with more versatility.

  • dontcare

    unless you have shares in this market, who cares… a phone is a phone

    Posted from BGR Mobile (iPhone).

  • David d

    Where does this Jarret get his info? From Steve Jobs personal blog for lemmings?

    It is clearly documented by multiple financial sources that Android is already outselling OIS as of 2Q2010. That is even with Apple including itouch’s and ipads as “phones” in their count.

    So to answer your question; what is apple doing right? Not much. They are consistently loosing market share just as they have always done on desktop. They are failing to innovate the iphone. Same tired interface from 3 years ago.

    Yea the have a great profit margin on overpriced desktops. But 90% of the world wont buy them. (90% is being kind; globally apple desktop hovers around 5% of the market) Iphone is going the same direction quickly.

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