Trouble on Wall St. means trouble for manufacturers and carriers

Opinions

That dude pictured above doesn’t look too happy, and who can blame him? He’s probably a tech geek, if not a Blackberry user who is sharing the worries and woes of the mobile telecommunications industry, which is heavily affected by the current economic downturn. With several banks and financial institutions being bailed out by the U.S. government, how can it not trickle down to the phone manufacturers and carriers? RIM is going to be a huge one since a big chunk of its market are the business types, and the fact that its success also depends largely on the success of Wall Street. The worst case scenario is they lose up to 40,000 subscribers — never a pretty thing. It seems tough enough for the mobile market to continue the success its seen over the past few years, but a failing economy could spell disaster. Products are being delayed, funding for R&D will likely be tight, and advertising will eventually have to suffer. Right now, the carriers have to focus on the smartphone market where they not only make a penny or two off high-end devices, but earn sustainable profits from data packages. This can almost never be good for the consumer, but I guess we’ve all gotta pay our share to keep our obsessions afloat.

Handset sales are predicted to go up 10% this year, but the majority of that will likely be from cheaper phones. Established names have struggled and, in Western Europe, sales have declined tremendously for the first half of ’08. Nokia, for example, has had a difficult time selling its high-end devices like the E-Series devices. RIM’s co-chief executive Jim Balsille says no one will ever abandon their handsets, and that’s true once you’ve grown dependent on them, but people will start making sacrifices here and there where they can, and that could hurt us all. With banks failing, the economy spoiling, and gas prices fluctuating between ridiculously high and an arm and a leg and a kidney, will you start holding off on buying those new, shiny, and pricey gadgets?

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17 Comments
  • http://www.PardonMyFresh.com AO

    I feel just like homie in the pic. Pockets are getting light.

  • YOUNG VEYRON

    I think I might hold off on buying some of those new, shiny, and pricey gadgets or at least take a more strategic approach when making purchases. But that’s only if the economy continues to decline.

  • http://videos4blackberry.info Bla1ze

    Umm hold off on buying them?..nope…Buy more? Hells ya..when I die I can’t take NONE of this shit with me…I’m sure as hell gonna enjoy it while I’m alive.

  • MadMike

    Well, it sucks for all of you guys. My investments are doing fine. Gold had its highest day ever and I sold a decent chunk.

    So all of you people crying that the economy is declining. I say, WTF are you investing in, morons?

    I’m making money hand over fist, Sorry!

    ZOMNG, GW Bush destroyed the economy, we are all starving oohh ohh ohhh! Blame the republicans, oh oh oh ohhh! Quit crying you fucking babies. Just because your too fucking stupid to make a living isn’t my fucking problem. Go to college.

  • Jay

    For someone “making money hand over fist”, you sound strangely hostile and bitter, like a guy with a major hemorrhoid problem would…

  • Jay

    RIM’s got 16 million subscribers, so 40,000 doesn’t seem significant at all. Besides, maybe Nokia’s high-end phones are not doing well because of competition?

  • MadMike

    I was just drunk. Note the 3:30am timestamp

  • http://www.ahow628.com/ ahow628

    Looks like RIM might have made a very smart move by having going with the non-3G phones like the Javelin…

  • http://about.bloomberg.com/professional/index.html dand

    It sure the hell hasn’t been easy for us traders, i feel blessed to have a job. However, save your money, limit cc usage, and let the gadget whoring live on!!! (tmobs G1 What up!)

  • http://www.bgr.com Marc Flores

    @Jay Correction: I meant to say they could lose up to 40,000 EMPLOYEES. That would have made a world of difference. Sorry for the error.

  • tavella

    How a discussion about how the economy will potentially impact cellular provider and handset makers turn in to “My bank account is bigger than yours.” is a shame. Instead of addressing the actual intent of the article, we have someone that wants to “potentially” flaunt what they have and put down a lot of people at the same time… Thanks to the BGR team for reporting this information for people to read. One would only hope that the people that obviously think they are better than everyone else could actually show some class and keep their hateful comments inside. I guess that is probably why old money typically look down upon new money. That’s ok. While large pools of assets, material possessions, and most likely over extended credit has got you this far, it can change in the blink of an eye. I’ve also noticed that new money will display their status this way to anyone regardless of age or how long it took then to actually achive what they have today. You may come back with a comment that I am probably some white trash, podunk, and uneducated Democrat. Call me what you like. All I know is I have always worked for everything I wanted, no silver spoon in my mouth. I am most likely 20-30 years younger than you and doing just fine in my early 20′s while working on my degree, working full time, own a home, and have a wonderful life that I have built on my own. Congrats on your gold sales. I hope your new balances enables you to have the ability to be happy with yourself and those around you.

  • TRV$

    Being an authorized retailer of ATT in a town of about 40,000 peeps where ATT has best signal coverage, we’ve seen an increase in store profits every month since christmas. The trend is that the people in our community, 90% low-middle income and retiree’s, are being budget concious now with their cell phone purchases. i.e. taking the “free” phone on the 2-year vs. paying $200 for a v9 RAZR. Since cost on the free phone is uber low compared to the high end phones, our profits continue to go up and to the right. Of course feature sales are going down to compensate higher cost of living due to screwed up economy, but that’s not affecting the bottom line. Surely that’s not the case everywhere, but it gives weight to what’s discussed in the posting.

  • Greg B

    MadMike, you go to the Boy Genius Report when you’re drunk at 3:30am? Wow. Cool.

  • MadMike

    I was at a wedding and my wife was driving (obviously) and since it was a 2 hour ride, I decided to hit up the web.

    @Tavella: WTF? If your doing fine, then there is no problem with the economy, right? You just proved my point. I’m not Republican. I don’t like Bush, because of his Father I spent my 21st birthday in the middle of the fucking desert.

    But, lay blame where blame is due. It’s not Dubyah – it’s that insipid clod Bernanke and it’s the Mortgage companies selling sub-prime balloon mortgages to people who they damn well knew couldn’t afford them. Why? “Oh, because the Government will bail us out!”

    Then at the most inopportune time, the housing bubble burst. Land prices sunk and now everyone is going out of business. But it’s not a problem, because all of the “conservative” investments are booming. Where one sector sinks, another rises and its a PERFECT time to invest in the companies that took hits, but aren’t folding. Buy there stock low, in 5 or 10 years – you will see a hefty profit. I’ll give you a hint, the largest insurance company in the world’s stock is at $7 a share. In 5 years, its going to be at $30/$40/$50…. Disclaimer: I think Jim Kramer is a moron who likes to jump on tables and scream like Tom Cruise – but in this respect he is right.

    And FYI, I, in no way have stated that I was better than anyone else all because of some money. I just said I made a killing in Gold and my other investments are seeing higher than expected returns for the year.

    If you are doing well in your twenties – that’s awesome and I wish you the best of luck. Don’t over analyze drunk ramblings. I have a tendency to over-embellish and I get cranky. I had to sit next to my Wife’s “Political Science” major BFF (meant as BIG FAT FRIEND!) go On and On and On how Obama is the worlds savior and this and that. She even thinks that the Presidents bullet proof vest was a “cheating device” so he could cheat at the 2004 debates. She’s a nutcase and a stupid bitch and I hope she dies a horrible and violent death.

  • tavella

    @ MadMike

    I can see how that situation could cause anyone to go off….

    Let me start off by thanking you for serving our country.

    Next, I never said the economy is not in a mess. I do agree that the banks allowed the sub-prime market to manifest and crash at the same time. In my area, sub-prime was not the only sector that took a big hit. It was the middle and upper middle class that made unwise decisions to take the ARMs and interest only loans that were offered to them. Instead of purchasing a home in the area of 200-300k where they most likely qualified, they went with the ARM and purchased the 350k – 600k+ and when the rates started adjusting, a lot of these people were then upside down on due to over extending credit, or values had started to drop in the housing market after the huge increase in values. These homes then were being bought by large banks (U.S. Bank, Deutsch Bank, Indy Mac Bank, etc) and created a new opportunity called REO. Bulk aquisitions of bank owned properties that investors were trying to buy for $0.30 – $0.60 on the dollar in packages of millions and billions of dollars. After this flopped and the investors couldn’t move the properties, that is when the real panic began. My financee is a mortgage broker that worked for a decent sized lender before they went under. Loans written in Florida had actual guidelines set forth by the state. I’m sure this is the same in most states. There had to be at least three financial benefits to the loan in order to close. My fiancee never wrote one ARM. As my financee works from home, I get to see the rate sheets sent by the banks. I never reviewed loan documentation as I believe in privacy. My co-worker did share his loan information with me and I was amazed. His loan actually lowered his monthly payment by paying off all of his debt and saved him over $600/mo. I am amazed that a good loan can lower someones total mothly bills by over $200.00-$500.00 a month by taking a small part of the equity. As long as the client doesn’t do something totally stupid and go wracking up credit card debt after all the cards have been paid off they will most likely be in a good position. While there were bad lenders, brokers, loan officers destroying the market, there are also good ones. It all comes down to a lot of people took advantage of a risky product offered to them by their banks, mortgage companies, and from their current lenders. My home was financed through my bank so that I would never be accused of taking advantage of the system. I could have saved a lot of money by going through my financee, but how is that fair to anyone else? On Tuesday, I watched rates at one large bank go from a 5.5% fixed 30 year conventional loan at 6am, to almost 11.34% at 10:30pm. Rate sheets never come out that late. The next day, they went sinking but not back to the 5.5% with no points.

    In regards to AIG, they should have been left to crash and burn. They should have learned a lesson with TIG, but obviously bad management almost caused them to go belly up again! I do realize that the failure of AIG would have caused more harm than good. These feelings may come from working in the insurance industry. Only missing a used car dealer to be totally hated by most of America…

    I am more upset with the executives of these large companies receiving severence packages in the millions of dollars. How is this helping the situation? Before Libby was put in as CEO of AIG, the last two CEO’s (one that had only been there for a few months) received 7mm+ packages!?! Lets start there.

    If I offended you, I apolgize. After a blow out with the people that live behind me over a property line issue (that ended up being my property) I am on the attack. I guess since I came up from nothing, I’m on the side of the underdog.

    Getting back on topic, I will say that a Blackberry Curve that was only three months old and took a swim in the pool will not be getting replaced at this time. I’d rather work on improving the future resale value of my home than buying another phone. I’d love a Bold (when available), but it will have to wait.

  • Lance

    I don’t feel there’s any substance or relevancy to the conjecture contained in the article.

  • gk

    he looks like a fixed income kinda guy. gets high off bloomberg terminals

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